Miami Heat: Analyzing Potential Playoff Matchups from First Round to the Finals
The Miami Heat have proven many times this season that they should be considered one of the best teams in the league. The experiment of LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh has at least proven to us by far that they are an elite team—and one of the most entertaining, as well. At 54-23, they have already surpassed last season's win total by seven games, and they still have five more games to go. Eight of those losses came in the first month of the season.
A considerable amount of those 54 wins, however, have been against teams with records below .500. It's always entertaining to watch how well the Heat play when they're playing at their best, but it hasn't always appeared that way in games against their future postseason counterparts. They currently stand as a No. 2 seed, which means they will either get the Philadelphia 76ers or the New York Knicks as their first-round counterpart.
It doesn't get any easier from there, with the Boston Celtics and Chicago Bulls to face, just to get out of the East. They Heat are a combined 0-6 against the current one and three seed with each game being decided in the final minute. When it came down to it, they just didn't play as a team compared to their opponents, who hit their shots when it mattered most. However, the postseason does sometimes feature teams that turn it on for the post season and it seems that the Big Three are saving their best for then.
While the Heat haven't proven themselves against the best teams of the East, they have proven time that they can beat just about anyone in the Western Conference. They have a win against the current No. 1 seed (San Antonio Spurs), two wins against the No. (2 Los Angeles Lakers) and five more wins against the rest of the current playoff teams. Judging by the regular season, it seems that the Heat would be able to compete with just about any team in the West.
Miami has five more games to secure the No. 2 seed and earn themselves a likely date against the New York Knicks. When these playoffs end, it would be the best way to evaluate just if this experiment truly could.
The Ideal Seed
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Prior to that dreadful five-game losing streak at the beginning of March, obtaining the No. 1 seed seemed like a highly plausible task for the Heat. They had been at top for a few days and were attempting to fight off the Boston Celtics for their first No. 1 seed since the 2004-05 campaign. The one seed is highly coveted for a number of reasons, home court advantage throughout the postseason being one of its most important perks.
However, with the Heat and the Celtics struggling, the Chicago Bulls took full advantage with one of its strongest months of the season. The No. 1 seed, that seemed highly plausible only a month ago, now seems out of the question with the Bulls becoming the hottest team in the NBA—currently holding a three-game lead over the No. 2 seeded Heat. With only six games remaining on the Heat's schedule, the chances of obtaining the No. 1 seed are very slim.
While the No. 1 seed appears out of reach, the two seed still grants home court advantage against any other team (aside from the No. 1 seed). For the Heat, this means that a possible date against a team like the Boston Celtics, who will most likely have the three seed, will feature four out of the possible seven games at the American Airlines Arena.
At 25-13, the Heat have the third best road record in the NBA, including the best mark in the Eastern Conference. However, having home court advantage against the Celtics in the postseason would give Miami an advantage that its going to need if they want to triumph Boston.
The Ideal First Round MatchUp: Philadelphia 76ers
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Heat's record against Philadelphia: 3-0
First matchup: Miami 97, Philadelphia 87
Second matchup: Miami 99, Philadelphia 90
Third matchup: Miami 111, Philadelphia 99
Led by the number one scoring bench in the NBA, the Philadelphia 76ers should not be taken lightly. Coach Doug Collins is in his first year with the Sixers and is already a legitimate candidate for Coach of the Year. By this time last year, the Sixers were already thinking about the lottery, after being in the Eastern Conference basement in 13th place with only 27 wins.
They have seen a huge turnaround thanks to Collins, the improved play of Elton Brand and the stellar bench—which features Louis Williams and Thaddeus Young as its main producers. They have also played the Heat well in their three matchups, with all of them coming down to the wire. The third meeting appeared to be the Sixers' chance at an upset, as they held as much as a 17-point lead in the second quarter.
That is, until Dwyane Wade decided to show up to the party by contributing 39 points, 11 rebounds and eight assists. The Sixers have capable defenders in Andre Iguodala and Elton Brand, but their main problem is at the two spot. Their options consist of Jodie Meeks, Louis Williams and Evan Turner, and while they are all capable offensive players, they all lack the defense to contain Wade. In three games this season, Wade has averaged 31 points per contest.
Who the First-Round Opponent Will Most Likely Be: The New York Knicks
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Heat's record against the New York Knicks: 2-2
First match-up: Miami 113, New York 91
Second match-up: Miami 106, New York 98
Third match-up: New York 93, Miami 88
Fourth match-up: New York 91, Miami 86
We'll give Miami the excuse of losing the third game since it was without Chris Bosh, but there is no excuse elaborate enough to make up for the poor display the Heat put on in their fourth matchup with the New York Knicks. It came during a stretch when the Heat lost five games in a row, blowing double-digit leads in four of those games—this was one of them. Miami had an 11-point lead going into the second quarter, yet it saw itself losing by halftime.
The problem with the Heat when they face a team like the Knicks, is that they begin to play too much into their run-and-gun system. When they rocketed out to that 11-point lead, they used driving, slashing and their nearly unstoppable fast break offense to wear down the Knicks. For the next three quarters though, they were reduced to a jump shooting team—and not a very good one at that. They took 22 three-pointers and only made six of them. Dwyane and LeBron were a combined one-of-eight from deep.
In both of their wins, they didn't take more than 18 three-point attempts. It seems that the Heat sometimes become too comfortable with shooting, especially when they're finding success early on, and it could drastically hurt them when teams make adjustments to contain it. They always need to force the issue of driving. Even if they don't make the basket, they'll either get the foul call or keep the opposing defense on its toes, ready for a drive.
The New York Knicks don't have the strongest of defenses, and scoring less than 90 points against them twice might be one of the biggest disappointments of the season for this Heat team.
Ideal Second-Round MatchUp: Philadelphia 76ers
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With the Heat most likely taking the No. 2 seed, it leaves the door open for a Boston Celtics and Philadelphia 76ers matchup between the three and six seed. When you're a team like the Heat who will most likely tire themselves out by the run-and-gun style of the New York Knicks, the last team they'd want to face is one that has just as big a shot at winning the championship as any other roster in the Eastern Conference.
Facing the Celtics in the conference finals would be a nice test for the Heat before the NBA finals, but taking them on in the second round of the postseason is something that they would like to avoid. The Philadelphia 76ers are a good team, but the Heat have proven during their three games in the regular season that they are completely capable of beating them. Also, they wouldn't need six or seven games like they would against the Celtics.
Considering that they'd have to take on the No. 1 seed in the next series, no one wants to face a team who has run the Eastern Conference for the past four years that early in the playoffs.
Who the Second-Round Opponent Will Most Likely Be: Boston Celtics
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Heat's record against the Boston Celtics: 0-3
First match-up: Boston 88, Miami 80
Second match-up: Boston 112, Miami 107
Third match-up: Boston 85, Miami 82
Defeating the Boston Celtics hasn't exactly been the Heat's forte this season. Sure, all of those games appear to be close, but if you watched each game, you would clearly see that the Celtics were the better team each and every time. Aside from the first half of the third matchup between the two teams, Miami has yet to play an impressive stretch against Boston. Those late fourth quarter comebacks against the Celtics in the first two matchups were nice, but in the final minutes, it was the Celtics veterans and chemistry leading the way.
One of the main problems for the Heat against the Celtics has been their overall lack of toughness and energy. Boston went into each and every one of those games with the mentality that it was the better team, and it won each of those games. Miami looked overwhelmed when Boston went on its runs—the third quarter of the third matchup being the best example, when the Celtics outscored Miami 35-18.
Rajon Rondo hasn't helped the Heat's case either, as he represents the biggest individual problem for Miami's Finals hopes. Rondo has torched Heat point guards all year by blowing past them, penetrating and forcing the Miami defense to focus their attention on him. By the time he's in the lane, he has already figured out where the best possible shot is going to come from.
Stop Rondo, and a postseason win against the Celtics becomes a whole lot easier. The problem is that Rondo is nearly impossible to stop.
Ideal Conference Finals MatchUp: Orlando Magic
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Heat's record against the Orlando Magic: 2-2
First match-up: Miami 96, Orlando 70
Second match-up: Orlando 105, Miami 94
Third match-up: Miami 104, Orlando 100
Fourth match-up: Orlando 99, Miami 96
Another team that took advantage of the Heat's struggles to maintain a lead, the Orlando Magic pulled off one of the biggest comebacks of the season by recovering from a 24-point second half deficit and pulling ahead as soon as midway through the fourth quarter. That game represented the epitome of the Heat's season-long struggles to contain a lead, and Orlando exploited it by using its perimeter shooting and taking advantage of the Heat's inconsistent offense to come back.
In the same case as playing the New York Knicks, the Miami Heat cannot begin to play the way the Magic want them to. Orlando is a high-tempo team that thrives on three-point shooting and is very well known for being able to shoot teams out of the building. If one team can stop this, it can be the Miami Heat—who possess two of the top perimeter defenders in LeBron James and Dwyane Wade. The 70 points they gave up to the Magic in the first matchup remains a season low production by Orlando.
As big a problem as Dwight Howard would be against the Heat's centers, Miami has done an excellent job of containing him. Because the Heat have Wade and James slashing into the teeth of the Magic defense, most of the time it requires Howard to give up a foul. A Heat center stopping Howard probably won't happen, so the team needs to find a way to be as inefficient as possible while never allowing him to get into an offensive rhythm.
Who the Conference Finals Opponent Will Most Likely Be: Chicago Bulls
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Heat's record against the Chicago Bulls: 0-3
First match-up: Chicago 99, Miami 96
Second match-up: Chicago 93, Miami 89
Third match-up: Chicago 86, Miami 85
Losing three games by a combined eight points just might be what the Heat need to beat the soon-to-be No.1 seeded Chicago Bulls. Each game had a frustrating ending for Miami, with an open Kyle Korver clinching a victory in the first game, an open Luol Deng clinching the second game, and a few suspect calls given to the Bulls to decide the third game.
Nevertheless, the Bulls made the plays in the end to give themselves a victory, while the Heat couldn't find any answers to breaking through Chicago's tough defense. They came up short on each occasion of possibly tying or beating the Bulls in the final seconds, with either a role player or LeBron James taking the final shot. Now that the Heat mostly look to Dwyane Wade as their finisher, winning a game against the Bulls could be a lot easier in the final moments.
The Heat's biggest problem with the Bulls has of course been their inability to contain probable MVP Derrick Rose. Like nearly every other elite point guard in the league, the Heat's point guards have been torched in all three contests by Rose. His size and speed has proved to be too much for the likes of Mario Chalmers or Eddie House (and probably Mike Bibby in the future), and Miami might need to rely on Wade to defend Rose instead.
To eliminate a problem, you go for its root. The source of the Bulls' success nearly every game is that Rose is there to create the plays, whether he is passing or taking the shot himself. The only way Miami is going to beat Chicago in a seven-game series is if it finds a way to contain Rose by keeping him away from the rim. He has improved his jump shot, but the Heat would rather see Derrick taking jump shots than penetrating the defense and either making layups or drawing fouls.
Ideal NBA Finals MatchUp: San Antonio Spurs
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Heat's record against the San Antonio Spurs: 1-1
First match-up: San Antonio 125, Miami 95
Second match-up: Miami 110, San Antonio 80
When I say that the ideal NBA Finals matchup for the Heat would be the San Antonio Spurs, in no way does this mean I don't respect the Spurs as a team. In fact, up until this recent skid, they have easily been the best team in the NBA. As a postseason team, it is one of the most dangerous because of carrying the same core group of Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili and Tim Duncan that has carried them to three titles in the past decade.
The reason the Heat should hope to see the Spurs in the NBA Finals is only because of their health and age. Duncan has already begun to show signs of deterioration with the decrease in stats and the recent injury forcing him to sit out a few games. If they can make it to the Finals, the Heat and their athleticism could possibly take advantage of the Spurs if they had been forced to play in a few six- or seven-game series.
As for the matchups, it's difficult to decipher just how well these teams know each other. The first meeting featured the Spurs running the Heat out of the building with a 34-12 first quarter and a game that featured a franchise-high 17 three-pointers, but the second game was all Heat as they used tough defense to limit the Spurs and force them into one of their worst losses of the year. There really isn't a way to judge how a series between these two teams would fare because of just how different the matchups differed from each other.
Who the Finals Opponent Will Most Likely Be: Los Angeles Lakers
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Heat's record against the Los Angeles Lakers: 2-0
First match-up: Miami 96, Los Angeles 80
Second match-up: Miami 94, Los Angeles 88
Coming into the season, the Miami Heat and Los Angeles Lakers matchups became the hottest tickets in town. It featured the three best players in the league in Kobe Bryant, LeBron James and Dwyane Wade—as well as two of the best power forwards in the game in Pau Gasol and Chris Bosh—all playing in an actual regular season game. The two teams have created a rivalry over the past few years with the Shaquille O'Neal and Kobe feud, but they have also had down-to-the-wire games in just about every matchup.
The Christmas Day game fell flat as the Heat beat up on a less-than-inspired struggling Lakers club. The Heat led throughout and finished the game with a 16-point victory at the Staples Center. For the second matchup, it was what the NBA world was expecting. A back-and-forth game that came down to the final seconds, also featuring one of the top one-on-one duels this season between Kobe Bryant and Dwyane Wade. Each player made impressive moves, but it was Wade giving his team the victory in the end.
Even though the Heat won the past two meetings, you have to believe that Kobe Bryant is foaming at the mouth for a chance to take on the Heat one more time. At a point like the NBA finals, an angry and motivated Kobe is the last person you want to play against in a championship atmosphere. If there's one player that can put a stop to it it though, it's Dwyane Wade. Wade forced Bryant into difficult shots throughout both games and made the key plays down the stretch in the second matchup.
It's the matchup that any NBA fan would want to see, and we're coming to that point where it just might be possible. Each team has played on fire with the Heat winning seven of its past eight and the Lakers going 17-1 since the All-Star break.
That one loss? You can thank Dwyane Wade and the Miami Heat.
