Philadelphia Phillies vs. Houston Astros Series Preview: Children of Wade Return
Finally, after several months of waiting in the cold, dreary city of Philadelphia, waiting for some signs of life and the hope that spring was just around the corner, it's here. Sure, it may be raining outside, and the temperature is hovering just around freezing, making the conditions more suitable for a football game than a baseball game, but that doesn't matter.
It's here.
Sure, there were plenty of games on tap yesterday. The New York Yankees swiftly defeated the Detroit Tigers, and the division rival Atlanta Braves took care of the Washington Nationals, but to me at least, it just didn't feel like Opening Day.
It wouldn't until the reigning National League Cy Young winner Roy Halladay was standing on the mound in Philadelphia, ready to throw the first pitch of the 2011 regular season for the Phillies, and now, that day is here.
In fact, this Opening Day is interesting in a couple of ways for the Phillies. Not only are we going to see all of our favorite Phils', but we'll be seeing a couple of familiar faces wearing Houston Astros' uniforms as well.
Astros' general manager Ed Wade has made some well documented trades with the Phillies, and more often than not, he's earned the reputation of bringing some of "his" players, or players that he drafted and groomed in the Minor League system, over to Houston.
The guy opposing Halladay actually made a couple of his own Opening Day starts in a Phillies' uniform. That man is, of course, Brett Myers.
He'll be just one of a few Astros' that have also donned a Phils' uniform that we'll see this weekend. Houston's starting center fielder Michael Bourn was once a top prospect in the Phillies' system, and on Sunday, despite battling an injury, former Phils' starter JA Happ is scheduled to face the long time face of the Houston Astros, Roy Oswalt.
So with the Phillies' regular season just about underway, let's see if we can crack the outcome of a couple of the games this weekend. Here's how things could shake out:
Game 1: Roy Halladay vs Brett Myers
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Game one is going to be interesting. Once we get past the nostalgia of seeing Brett Myers on the bump to oppose Roy Halladay, we should be in for a good game. The weather isn't looking great at this point, and if these pitchers are going to will their teams to victory, they're going to have to control the game on all levels.
One of these pitchers is more suited to do that than the other, which in the long run, could be the key to this game.
Myers has developed into a nice pitcher for the Astros. When he was here in Philadelphia, he tended to be more of a "thrower" than a "pitcher." Instead of thinking about how to attack a hitter, he reared back and threw the ball as hard as he could. Sometimes he was successful, and other times he wasn't. That was just the type of pitcher he had become.
Last season in Houston, however, Myers made an adjustment that helped him become more of a "pitcher." He doesn't have the type of "stuff" that's going to overpower hitters any longer, so he'll need to move the ball around the plate and keep the Astros in the game long enough so they can hope to score some runs off Halladay.
That may not be an easy task.
After all, Halladay is much better suited to pitch in this type of ball game. He's the type of pitcher that knows how to pitch even when he doesn't have his best stuff, and with today's weather, that's going to be a key. He should be able to keep that heavy sinker down in the zone and paint the corners with his fastball, mixing in a couple of off-speed pitches to keep the Astros on their toes.
If one player from each team had to be the hero though, who would it be?
Advantage: Phillies
Step Your Game Up: Jimmy Rollins and Michael Bourn/Chris Johnson
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Jimmy Rollins: Having played on the same team for a while, there aren't many Phillies who have registered career at-bats against Brett Myers, especially after last season where a lot of the Phillies' regulars spent time on the disabled list. However, I think if there's one guy who has to get going and get going quickly for the Phillies, it's Jimmy Rollins.
We've heard about the state of the Phils' offense for a while now. There is no Jayson Werth in the lineup. For at least the first part of the season, there is not Chase Utley. Someone needs to step up and be the offensive leader, and that man has to be Rollins.
If there was ever a time to get going, it's on Opening Day—and don't look back. In four career at-bats against Myers, Rollins has collected two hits. It's a terribly small sample size, but suggests that he's seen the ball well out of Myers' hand.
Michael Bourn and Chris Johnson: Believe it or not, there are more than a few players in the Astros' lineup that have had some success against Roy Halladay in his career. I didn't even include Carlos Lee, who's slugged three home runs against him and has seen him more than the others thanks to time spent in the American League.
That said, if the Astros are going to win this game, these two men will have to step their game up.
The key to beating any team's ace is to score runs against him early. Knock him around before he settles in. Against Halladay, that's easier said than done, and if the Astros want to accomplish that, they'll need Bourn to get on base with frequency and use his speed. He's 3-for-7 against Halladay in his career, including a home run.
Johnson, on the other hand, is an interesting guy. Though he slowed down at the end of last season, the rookie third baseman made some noise for the Astros, including against star pitchers like Halladay. In a small sample size against Halladay, he was 3-for-4, including a double.
Game 2: Cliff Lee vs Wandy Rodriguez
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Opening Day has Phillies' fans excited beyond belief, but let's be honest with ourselves here. After months of waiting, watching and building excitement, Cliff Lee finally returns to the mound in Citizens' Bank Park on Saturday night to oppose Wandy Rodriguez in game two.
In conditions that will more than likely be very similar to those of today's game, both of these guys are going to have to bring their "A" stuff. In fact, these pitchers are similar in a lot of ways. In a game that will require both guys to have good control to be successful, neither pitcher has stuff that is going to blow hitters away.
In the long run, the man with the best control will more than likely, be more successful.
Rodriguez is the type of starter built to face the Phillies' lineup. First of all, he's left handed, which bodes well in his favor when the time comes to face the middle of the Phils' order. However, he'll need to show better control than he did last season (3.14 BB/9) if he wants to have some success in a cold night game here in Philadelphia.
Lee, on the other hand, probably showed the best control of any pitcher in baseball last season. He pounded the strike zone with relative ease last season, posting an incredible BB/9 of just 0.76. As long as that control translates over to this season, it's hard to imagine him having problems against a middle of the road Astros' lineup.
Advantage: Phillies
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Step Your Game Up: Raul Ibanez/Ben Francisco and Hunter Pence
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Raul Ibanez and Ben Francisco: Now that Jayson Werth is in Washington, if there are two guys that have to step their game up for the Phillies, they are Ibanez and Francisco. They'll be tasked with providing some pop to the lineup and protecting Ryan Howard, and they've both had some success against Wandy Rodriguez.
I picked Ibanez because Rodriguez is a left-handed starter, and Ibanez will need to have success against left-handed pitching this year if he wants to be successful—and the Phils' need him to be successful. In his career, he's 2-for-5 against Rodriguez, including a double. Over the course of his career, he's been very good against the Astros, posting a line of .419/.526/.581.
Francisco, on the other hand, may have more pressure on him than any hitter in the lineup. Not only is he tasked with replacing Werth in right field, but he has a couple of guys barking at his heels ready to take
his job should he falter. Starting off on the right foot against a guy who he's had success against could be key. He's 2-for-4 against Rodriguez in his career and looks to add to that total Saturday night.
Hunter Pence: I've always liked Hunter Pence because he goes about the game the right way. It seems like he's a great clubhouse guy and just plays the game the way it's supposed to be played. On the other hand, he's had Cliff Lee's number over the course of his career, which I'm not so fond of.
He's 3-for-5 against Lee, including a home run and a couple of RBI. The Astros will go as far as their young star takes them this season.
Game 3: Roy Oswalt vs JA Happ
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Personally, this is the matchup that I'm looking forward to. When I first started following the Phillies to the "mega-nerd" extent, JA Happ was the first prospect I tracked through the Minor League system, so in some ways, seeing him make his Major League debut felt like as much of an accomplishment for me as it did for him.
When he was traded to Houston, it was bittersweet. I was disappointed to see him go, but Roy Oswalt is among baseball's elite. This should be an entertaining matchup.
By Sunday, the weather will have taken a turn for the better, and baseball will be played in all of its intensity. For that reason, the theme for this matchup is, "Who has more to prove against their former team?"
Oswalt, who of course, was the long time face of the Houston Astros organization and ace of its pitching staff, has been very unemotional in regards to playing the Astros. When they squared off last season and again before this season, Oswalt went on the books as saying that there aren't many of his teammates left in that locker room.
To him, it's just another game, which bodes well for the Phillies.
Happ, on the other hand, is in an interesting situation. Pitching against the Phillies may be a challenge, and not just because they are his former team. Traded as the centerpiece to the Oswalt deal, he still has something left to prove to both the Astros organization, who've put a lot of faith in him, and to the Phillies' organization, in an attempt to show them that they are missing out on a talented, left-handed arm.
Advantage: Phillies
Step Your Game Up: Shane Victorino
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Shane Victorino: Like was the case with Brett Myers, JA Happ has only made a single career start against the Phillies in which a lot of the regulars were injured, so the pickins' were slim in picking out a guy who needs to step his game up on Sunday. That said, I'll go with Shane Victorino because he needs to step his game up anyway.
With a lot of guys missing out of the middle of the order, it's important that Victorino solidifies the lineup at the top, so that Charlie Manuel can rely on hitting Jimmy Rollins third with some consistency. Though he's just 1-for-2 against Happ, he's going to need to show that he can get things rolling early in the game to get his pitching staff some run support.
Victorino returning to form at the top of the order would do great things for every hitter that followed.
Bill Hall: Bill Hall stirred the pot a bit in a spring training game against the Phillies when, after Cole Hamels brushed him back with an inside fastball, the two exchanged a short war of words with the media, where Hall called Hamels a "marked man."
Well, had Hall done a little research and applied some common sense, he'd have realized that he will not see Hamels this series. But hey, who am I to judge?
Any how, one man he has seen over the course of his career is Roy Oswalt. When Hall played with the Milwaukee Brewers, the two saw each other often, and Hall had some success against the Phillies' right hander. In 44 career at-bats, he's posted a line of .318/.375/.500, with a home run. The rest of the Astros' lineup hasn't fared all too well against Oswalt, so getting Hall going may be the key.
When It's All Said and Done
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There are going to be a couple of questions the Phillies can answer heading into this series. For starters, can the starting rotation live up to the hype? Sure, only three of them will appear, and it will only be the first start of the season for these three guys, but getting off on the right foot is going to be key to the Phillies' season if they want to maintain a winning pace with a lengthy list of injuries.
Also, we'll have to keep a close eye on the Phils' offense. They'll see a couple of left-handed starters in this series, so I'll be keeping a close eye on Ryan Howard and Raul Ibanez.
Now that Howard has moved up in the batter's box, can he lay off some of those off-speed pitches? Has his pitch recognition improved? What about Ibanez? He looks very healthy after a good spring, but can he maintain that success in the regular season?
All in all, the Phillies have the tools to sweep the Houston Astros right out of Philadelphia. With three legitimate aces leading the way, it's almost hard to imagine the Astros scoring enough runs to chase any of the three Phils' starters.
Should that be the case, however, make sure you keep an eye on the Phillies' bullpen as well. Ryan Madson and Jose Contreras know their roles, but how successful can the rest of the bullpen be?
It all begins in about an hour.
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