NFL Draft: What Value Means to Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots
The one word that draws the ire of New England Patriots fans around NFL draft time is the one word that has led to the continued success of the team: "value".
Over the course of the 2011 NFL draft, you will hear Mel Kiper and others talk about need picks vs. value picks. Patriots fans may be growing anxious with Belichick for failing to address the team's most dire needs in his undying quest for optimum value.
They may be wondering when a need will become so dire that it will usurp value altogether.
Don't get me wrong. If two players grade out relatively even, but one is at a position of less depth, that is the smarter move. If neither is, the smarter pick is the better player who's a better fit for the system.
That may seem like such an obvious statement, but if every NFL owner and GM shared that ideology, we wouldn't be treated to draft day surprises like Darius Heyward-Bey being drafted ahead of Michael Crabtree.
Let's get an in-depth example.
In 2008, the Detroit Lions picked offensive tackle Gosder Cherilus with the 17th pick. It was a dubious selection even at the time, but the Lions needed help on the offensive line and, incidentally, they still do.
The next pick was Joe Flacco. Drafting Flacco would have saved the Lions from having to use the first overall pick the very next year on Matthew Stafford, another need pick who has been on and off the field due to injury.
What's worse, three running backs were taken just a handful of picks later. First Felix Jones, then Rashard Mendenhall, then Chris Johnson. Yes, the Lions used a third-round pick that year on Kevin Smith, but they could have avoided drafting Jahvid Best last year.
And any of them may have helped the Lions avoid an 0-16 season.
Just last year, the Patriots passed twice on Sergio Kindle, a coveted pass rusher. The Patriots needed a pass rusher badly and Kindle was projected around this spot.
His value, however, was decimated due to the possibility of needing microfracture surgery early in his career.
The Patriots went with Devin McCourty because of the value they felt he added in terms of his ability to not only play cornerback but also cover and return kicks on special teams.
While the Ravens are stuck with Kindle, who didn't play last year and has severe questions marks headed into 2011, the Patriots have a lockdown cornerback for the future.
Seeking need over value sets off a chain reaction that ends up putting a franchise back for what could be several years or more.
Sure, need probably factors into the overall value a player presents for a team, but I would say that the amount which it impacts a player's value is far less for the Patriots than for other needs.
And need will never replace value altogether.
What the Patriots realize that most other teams don't is that you can't point to any single position and say they couldn't compete without adding someone there. Football is so unpredictable and any set of circumstances—injury, suspension or otherwise—may open a need that didn't exist previously.
Plus, there's no real guarantee that drafting a player at a position of need automatically fills the need (see: Gholston; Vernon). If that player turns out to be a bust, it puts you right back at square one.
The Patriots rarely trade up because there's rarely ever enough value to make it worth their while. For the Patriots to trade up for a player, that player would have to be a lock in terms of his future and his value. Rarely do you find surefire guys like that, even at the top of the draft.
The argument can always be made for this player or that one, but does anyone ever know for sure?
They're content targeting the players they want and trading down, while still acquiring those players.
Why build a team full of players you need when you can get the guys that anyone would want?
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