MLB: 2011 Opening Day Viewer's Guide
Opening Day is what baseball fanatics dream about all winter long. It is unlike any other day of the season because no matter what team you cheer for, there is hope. Whether you cheer for the San Francisco Giants and are dreaming of a repeat, or a fan of the Pittsburgh Pirates and dreaming of a season above .500, it is possible on Opening Day.
Anything is possible.
(Note: Throughout the slideshow you will see the stats FIP and xFIP used in lieu of ERA, to learn more about these stats check out http://bit.ly/gDN18R)
1:05 ET: Detroit Tigers at New York Yankees
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Tigers: Justin Verlander (18-9, 2.97 FIP, 3.52 xFIP)
Yankees: CC Sabathia (21-7, 3.54 FIP, 3.63 xFIP)
The best Opening Day pitching matchup of the season pits two workhorse aces trying to get their teams off on the right foot in the Bronx.
Much of the Detroit Tigers' spring training campaign was spent answering questions about Miguel Cabrera's inability to stay off the sauce. Despite his problems off the field, Cabrera is poised for another huge season at the plate. I think the Tigers have enough talent to stay in the Central race for the entire season, but I am not sure they have enough depth to win the division.
Brad Penny, Rick Porcello and Phil Coke all are question marks heading into the season, and although the top four in the order are solid, spots five through nine leave a lot to be desired. Jose Valverde and Joaquin Benoit should provide top-notch relief in innings eight and nine, but the other members of the bullpen are unproven.
For the New York Yankees, it was the most disappointing winter in recent memory. There was no World Series to celebrate. There was no major signing to talk about. To top it all off, the player all Yankees fans were already penciling into the 2011 rotation last October, Cliff Lee, snubbed them to accept less money to return to Philadelphia.
All of that said, the Yankees are still a threat to win the American League. Sabathia is as reliable as they come on the mound and I am expecting a bounce-back season for A.J. Burnett. I don't buy the Phil Hughes hype, however, as none of his peripheral numbers tell me he will be any better than he was last season.
I think the key to the Yankees' season might be the health of Curtis Granderson. The Grandy Man is a dynamic player when healthy, but he only played 136 games last season and is already on the shelf with an oblique injury that will likely keep him out of the Opening Day lineup.
Prediction: Yankees, 4-2
1:05 ET: Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals
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Braves: Derek Lowe (16-12, 3.89 FIP, 3.53 xFIP)
Nationals: Livan Hernandez (10-12, 3.95 FIP, 4.57 xFIP)
The Atlanta Braves entered spring training in the shadow of the Philadelphia Phillies and their big signing of Cliff Lee. That has changed, however; due to the injuries the Phillies have suffered and strong performance in Florida, the Braves are suddenly a trendy pick among MLB “experts.”
The Braves do have a deep lineup that includes young superstar Jason Heyward and the offseason addition Dan Uggla, but there are still questions surrounding several players. Will Chipper Jones be able to stay healthy enough to be a factor? How will Freddie Freeman handle his first season in the major leagues? Which Alex Gonzalez will show up, the one who hit .259 with 17 home runs in 85 games for Toronto or the one who hit .240 with 6 home runs in 72 games for the Braves? Is Nate McLouth really back, or was it just a spring mirage?
The Braves pitching should be rock solid though, and could keep the Braves in contention even if the offense falters. The transition from Bobby Cox to Fredi Gonzalez has been seamless and the Braves should give the Phillies are run for their money in the East with the loser getting the Wild Card.
The Nationals have some nice pieces, but still don't have enough to complete the puzzle. I don't like the words underrated and overrated because they are thrown around way too much, and there doesn't seem to be a real definition to them, but Ryan Zimmerman doesn't get enough attention. If he played in New York, he would be a bona fide superstar.
The acquisition of Jayson Werth, while at an extremely large price, should help the offense and the return of Jordan Zimmerman for a full season should give a nice boost to the pitching staff. There are just too many stop gap players like Rick Ankiel and Ivan Rodriguez to be serious contenders this season but the team is moving in the right direction.
Livan Hernandez pitched well against the Braves last season which gives the Nationals a chance in this game but I think the Braves prevail.
Prediction: Braves, 6-3
2:10 ET: Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds
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Brewers: Yovani Gallardo (14-7, 3.02 FIP, 3.29 xFIP)
Reds: Edinson Volquez (4-3, 4.00 FIP, 3.75 xFIP)
The Brewers made a splash over the winter by acquiring Zack Greinke, but unfortunately he is going to start the season on the disabled list with a fractured rib and isn't expected back to at least late April. Add to that the fact Corey Hart will also start the season on the DL with an oblique injury (there seem to be a lot of those things spring), and it puts the Brewers behind the eight-ball right off the bat.
The reason these injuries are even more important for the Brewers is the impending free agency of Prince Fielder. Brewers management has been saying all the right things about keeping him on the team all season if they are in contention, but you have to wonder if they get off to a slow start and are borderline contenders in late July if they'll trade him
The Reds are my pick to win the NL Central. They have depth in the rotation, lineup and bullpen and young players on the incline instead of aging players on the decline. Joey Votto will once again anchor the lineup and by all accounts this could be the year Jay Bruce puts it all together for a full season and becomes an All-Star caliber player.
Even with Votto and Bruce, the most exciting part of any Reds' game will be when Aroldis Chapman enters the game and people get whiplash from looking at the radar gun after every pitch. He won't be the closer right away, but if he can show some improved control in the first few months, he should be the ninth inning guy by the dog days of summer.
Prediction: Reds, 5-4
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4:10 ET: Los Angeles Angels at Kansas City Royals
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Angels: Jered Weaver (13-12, 3.06 FIP, 3.32 xFIP)
Royals: Luke Hochevar (6-6, 3.93 FIP, 4.09 xFIP)
The Angels have a nice rotation led by Weaver, but I don't think they have enough power in the lineup to contend in the AL West this season. Mark Trumbo, who is filling in until Kendrys Morales, has shown some pop during spring training but it is unseen whether he'll be able to carry that into the regular season. I am expecting some regression for Vernon Wells, dropping from 31 home runs last season to 22-24 this season.
The one player that is really intriguing is Peter Bourjos. He has always had speed, but last season he started to develop some power as well. His low batting average after his call-up last season was fueled by an extraordinarily low .228 BABIP, which was especially surprising because he had never had a BABIP below .326 in the minor leagues. A double-digit home run, 30-steal season isn't out of the question for Bourjos.
There have been many articles this spring about the greatness of the Royals farm system, and rightfully so. But this season will be a long one for Royals fans. Their current roster is filled with Braves castoffs and serviceable at-best major leaguers. They do have some talent in Billy Butler and Joakim Soria, but the Royals are still two years away from being true contenders.
Royals fans, save your money and take a trip to some of your minor league affiliates and go see guys like Mike Moustakas, Eric Hosmer and Wil Myers, they are the future.
Prediction: Angels, 6-2
4:15 ET: San Diego Padres at St. Louis Cardinals
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Padres: Tim Stauffer (6-5, 3.02 FIP, 3.61 xFIP)
Cardinals: Chris Carpenter (16-9, 3.69 FIP, 3.70 xFIP)
The Padres send Stauffer to the mound on Opening Day after a great season in 2010 split between the bullpen and the rotation, but what kind of season will he have in the rotation? The advanced stats say he wasn't 1.95 ERA good, but he was still pretty solid. I could see 10 wins and an ERA around 3.90.
As a team, the Padres were one of the biggest surprises of the season in 2010, missing out on the playoffs on the final day. Unfortunately I don't think they will have similar success in 2011. The bullpen should still be fantastic and they shouldn't have much trouble scoring runs, but I don't think their starting pitching will match the production from last year's staff. However, I kept expecting a complete collapse last season and it never came, so I could be wrong again.
The Cardinals were clear favorites to win the NL Central, but then Adam Wainwright went down and opened the race up for teams like the Reds and Brewers. They will still be in the race for the entire season, but do they have enough offense outside of Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday? Lance Berkman has struggled to stay healthy and now he has to play right field, which I can't see ending well.
With Dave Duncan leading the way, I never worry too much about the Cardinals pitching. Kyle McClellan has looked fantastic in spring training and is looking like another Duncan resurrection project that catapults a pitcher into the national conscience.
I am usually not a believer of “contract season” performances, but Pujols entering the last year of his contract is a scary proposition anyway. The best hitter in the game with even more motivation to be great? Look out.
Prediction: Cardinals, 3-1
8:00 ET: San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers
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Giants: Tim Lincecum (16-10, 3.15 FIP, 3.09 xFIP)
Dodgers: Clayton Kershaw (13-10, 3.12 FIP, 3.64 xFIP)
Perhaps I jumped the gun earlier when I said Verlander and Sabathia was the best matchup of Opening Day. If not the best, this is a close second and should be a great game to watch if you love zeroes.
The Giants begin their title defense with a trip down the freeway, minus the bearded Brian Wilson, to Los Angeles to visit the division-rival Dodgers. The Giants pitching, both the rotation and bullpen, should be great this season and keep them in games, even if they aren't scoring. It won't be as interesting to watch until Wilson gets back though, what a fun, loving guy he is huh?
I am a bit skeptical about the Giants' ability to score runs on a consistent basis. Starting Brandon Belt at first base and shifting Aubrey Huff to right field will be a good start, although that would hurt the outfield defense.
They will need Buster Posey to avoid the dreaded sophomore slump and Pablo Sandoval to have a resurgent season now that he is back in shape to repeat as NL West champions. Can they do it? Absolutely, I am just taking a wait-and-see approach this season with the Giants.
The Dodgers on the other hand, I am just selling them. I don't think they will score nearly enough runs to contend in what should be a hot contested race out West. After Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp, what do they have? James Loney is not a middle-of-the-order-type hitter, but that's where he'll have to be for Los Angeles.
They do have good pitching, however, so they will stay in the race until September giving Larry King and Alyssa Milano hope of a return to the playoffs, but I just don't think its in the cards. If they pick up another bat during the season to lengthen the lineup, perhaps my opinion will change and there should be some good hitters on the market at the deadline.
Prediction: Giants, 3-2
Division-by-Division Predictions
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AL East
1. Boston Red Sox
2. New York Yankees (wild card)
3. Baltimore Orioles
4. Tampa Bay Rays
5. Toronto Blue Jays
AL Central
1. Chicago White Sox
2. Minnesota Twins
3. Detroit Tigers
4. Cleveland Indians
5. Kansas City Royals
AL West
1. Texas Rangers
2. Oakland Athletics
3. Los Angeles Angels
4. Seattle Mariners
NL East
1. Atlanta Braves
2. Philadelphia Phillies (Wild Card)
3. New York Mets
4. Florida Marlins
5. Washington Nationals
NL Central
1. Cincinnati Reds
2. Milwaukee Brewers
3. St. Louis Cardinals
4. Chicago Cubs
5. Houston Astros
6. Pittsburgh Pirates
NL West
1. Colorado Rockies
2. San Francisco Giants
3. Los Angeles Dodgers
4. Arizona Diamondbacks
5. San Diego Padres
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