Ichiro: Top 6 Reasons the Seattle Mariners Outfielder Will Get 3,000 MLB Hits
There are currently 27 members of baseball's 3,000-hit club, and Ichiro would like to earn membership.
It's going to take a few more years, but the possibility is very real.
When he broke into the league at age 27 after coming over from Japan, I don't think many people thought this was something that could be done.
Here are the reasons why it can happen.
Leading Off
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This may seem like a Captain Obvious statement, but leading off is an advantage in Ichiro's quest.
Not just because he gets more at-bats, though.
Some fans have called for Ichiro to bat third in the Mariners lineup, or perhaps even second behind Chone Figgins.
However, doing this would turn some of his infield hits into a fielder's choice, as an infielder could easily flip to get the lead runner instead of trying to get Ichiro at first.
How much would a few less at-bats and infield hits matter? I'm not entirely sure, but as he gets older, each hit could matter.
Age
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It's a little surprising that age can be a positive factor for a guy who came to the league so late, but Ichiro has piled up so many hits in 10 seasons that he now is in line with where other members of the 3,000-hit club were when they were chasing the mark.
If Ichiro were to average 200 hits in each of the next four seasons, he'd reach the milestone during that fourth season at the age of 41.
Depending on the day it happens, he could end up being the third-oldest player in history to reach the mark. His production would have to slip to around 180 hits per season to match Rickey Henderson's for reaching the mark at age 42.
It would require an epic fall for him to take as long as his age 45 season to do it, which is how old Cap Anson was when he set the record.
Of the 27 players in the club, over a third of them have done it after being "over the hill."
Anson got the latest start to a career, but he started three years younger than Ichiro, at 24, when he broke into the big leagues. Rickey Henderson had the earliest start at age 20.
While Ichiro started at an advanced age, the hit totals have piled up fast, and he's essentially caught many of the players who started far younger.
How He'll Age
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Players with Ichiro's body type and skill set traditionally age well.
We saw how long Rickey Henderson was able to go. While Rickey wasn't the producer he was in his later years, he offered enough to keep getting jobs into his 40s.
Now at age 37, Ichiro is still leading the league in infield hits and is one of the least likely players to ground into a double play. While he may be a couple ticks slower than he was a decade ago, he still has plenty of speed to get down the line.
He's not a lumbering slugger who will fall off a cliff like Mo Vaughn, either. Ichiro's body and skills should hold up.
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Health
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Ichiro has only been on the disabled list once in his 10 years, and that was from a non-baseball-related injury.
He maintains a consistent diet, works out regularly and keeps his body fine tuned.
BABIP
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Ichiro always has a high BABIP, which means that when he lays the bat on the ball, he ends up on base more than most players.
When using BABIP, you can figure out if a guy was lucky. Say a player has a career BABIP of .275 before having an explosive offensive season. If you look at the BABIP and it's now 60 points higher, you don't have to be seen as a skeptic to assume he'll regress the following season.
For Ichiro, though, his career average BABIP is north of the 90th percentile. Indeed, in the two seasons when he won a batting title or finished second, his BABIP fluctuated higher. However, the metric merely went from amazing to great.
What this means is that Ichiro not only has great odds of maintaining 200 hits per season, but he could bust out for 230 to 240 and win a batting title.
Work Ethic
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The way Ichiro approaches the game is the stuff of legends.
Working out at the stadium on a road trip off-day is almost unheard of in baseball. After all, it is a 162-game season with only 20 days off sprinkled in. As a perennial All-Star, those off-days are reduced even further.
There's Ichiro, though, taking BP and working out while the rest of the club is golfing or relaxing.
I once saw someone make a quip about how practice doesn't make perfect, it makes you sore. Sure, if you're a replacement level player, you may never be able to practice yourself out of that skill level.
If all Ichiro is doing is maintaining his skills with so much practice, that doesn't hurt his quest one bit.
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