2011 NFL Draft: 5 Reasons the Panthers Should Take A.J. Green

As the upcoming NFL draft nears, there is much speculation about whom the Carolina Panthers will select with the first overall pick. Considerations include the Panthers’ scouting evaluations, their team needs and football economics.

There are at least half a dozen players who have a good case for being drafted No.1, but I believe that the correct choice for Carolina is Georgia wide receiver A.J. Green. Here are five good reasons why.

CAROLINA NEEDS A WR

The Panthers featured an embarrassingly poor pass offense in 2010. They ranked dead last in receptions (256), receiving yards (2,635) and receiving touchdowns (nine). The Kansas City Chiefs had the second fewest receiving yards—and they had over 5,000 more than the Panthers. Carolina’s aerial attack wasn’t just bad; it was historically awful.

Part of the blame falls on the shoulders of quarterbacks Matt Moore and Jimmy Clausen, but the receiving corps is bare as well. The once great Steve Smith produced a measly 554 yards and two TDs last season. Now on the wrong side of 30, Smith is no longer the blazing big play threat he used to be, and had some problems with drops as well.

And that’s Carolina’s best receiver. Their next few options are David Gettis (508 yards in 2010), Brandon LaFell (468), and Mike Goodson (310). At least those guys have youth on their side, but none of them projects as an elite receiver. Help is sorely needed.

By contrast, the Panthers boasted the 13th best rushing attack and the 10th best pass defense. They did have the 10th worst run defense, and that’s definitely another area that needs to be addressed, but make no mistake, Carolina’s most glaring weakness is their pass offense.

GREEN IS AN ELITE PROSPECT

Of course, drafting purely on need can be risky, as it may lead to reaching for a prospect unworthy of the pick. Luckily, that is not the case here. A.J. Green is, by consensus, one of the best players in this year’s draft class. Nearly every major draft expert has Green in the top five on his big board.

In three seasons in Georgia, Green amassed 2,619 yards and 23 touchdowns. Scouts love his combination of size (6’4”, 207 lbs.), speed (4.48 second 40-yard dash at the combine), and body control. He has the athleticism and instincts to compare to past prospects like Randy Moss and Larry Fitzgerald, who went on to become two of the best receivers in the game.

Alabama wideout Julio Jones got some attention when he outran Green at the combine on a broken foot, but in no way does excellence in a single drill outweigh three years of impressive tape and production. Green is easily the best receiving prospect since Calvin Johnson in 2007.

WIDE RECEIVERS CAN BE FRANCHISE PLAYERS

Only two receivers, Irving Fryar and Keyshawn Johnson, have ever gone first overall. There seems to be a widely held perception that they are not franchise building blocks like players at some other positions. Quarterback is widely considered to be the most important position, as every passing play hinges on the QB. Running backs have also enjoyed great prestige, though less so today as the NFL becomes more passing oriented. Pass rushers are highly valued as well. But wide receivers are considered less important because, on average, they only touch the ball five or six times a game.

I believe that is a very shortsighted view. Wide receivers are the big play threats on offense, and the ones most capable of putting six points on the board in a single snap. In today’s pass-first NFL, a hopeful contender will find it very difficult to thrive without quality receivers. Even when he’s not touching the ball, a true number one receiver draws away coverage and opens up holes for other pass catchers and the running game.

Randy Moss is a terrific example of a franchise receiver. When the Minnesota Vikings drafted him, they immediately became a record setting offense. Several years later, the New England Patriots found their offense declining after the departure of Deion Branch, so they acquired Moss. In their very first season with him, they became arguably the greatest offense of all time, and came within a hair of completing a perfect season. Obviously, Moss is the best case scenario, but he’s living proof that a WR can be just as valuable as a QB or RB.

OTHER PROSPECTS DON’T FIT CAROLINA AS WELL AS GREEN

For a team that finished with the worst record in the league, the Panthers actually have a decent amount of talent on their roster. They have an excellent linebacking corps, a solid secondary, a good offensive line (marred by injuries in 2010, but due back healthy), and two top notch running backs in DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart (though Williams is a free agent and his future in Carolina is uncertain). Their three real areas of need are QB, WR and the defensive line.

This year’s quarterback class is a relatively weak one. The two standouts, Cam Newton of Auburn and Blaine Gabbert of Missouri, will definitely be up for consideration. Newton is more physically gifted and just won the Heisman Trophy, while Gabbert’s stock has gained steam after a very good Pro Day. But ultimately, both QBs have glaring flaws, and are not as highly rated as former No. 1 picks like Sam Bradford and Peyton Manning.

Defensive linemen could intrigue Carolina, whether they’re edge rushers (Da’Quan Bowers, Robert Quinn) or interior linemen (Marcell Dareus, Nick Fairley). But this draft is loaded with D-line depth, and the Panthers could grab quality players in the middle rounds. LSU cornerback Patrick Peterson is widely considered the best player in the draft, but as mentioned, defensive backs are not a pressing need for Carolina.

That leaves wide receiver, and AJ Green is unquestionably the best option there.

JIMMY CLAUSEN NEEDS HELP

Speaking of quarterbacks, the ones Carolina trotted out in 2010 were atrocious.  They went into the season with Matt Moore penciled in as the starter, but took highly touted prospect Jimmy Clausen in the middle of round two as a long term solution. Both struggled mightily, and the Panthers may be ready to give up on Clausen already, especially with a new head coach in town.

I’m of the belief that quarterbacks have a steep learning curve and can’t be evaluated by their rookie season; just look at Peyton Manning, who threw 28 picks his first year. Moreover, everything seemed to go wrong for the Panthers this year, and the injuries to right tackle Jeff Otah and running back DeAngelo Williams were major hurdles for the offense, especially one run by a rookie signal caller.

But even if the Panthers’ brass disagrees with that assessment, there may not be a solution in this year’s draft. As mentioned, this QB class is a weak one. Carolina has a major decision to make on whether they think Gabbert or Newton is good enough.

If they don’t, they’re presumably stuck with Clausen. They could try bringing in a stopgap veteran like Kevin Kolb or Billy Volek, but in that case, they’ve essentially given up on the 2011 season already. In the absence of a better long term solution, why not give Clausen a second audition, this time with the proper tools at his disposal? A.J. Green could be that weapon that their anemic pass offense so desperately needs.

Uncertainty always surrounds the NFL draft, and the Carolina Panthers have a very difficult decision ahead of them. Whatever choice they make will be a gamble, but for my money, Georgia wideout A.J. Green is the best bet.