2011 NFL Draft: 30 Questions to Answer in the 30 Days Before the Draft
As the draft approaches, now just a mere 30 days away, there is still a lot to be answered in terms of who goes where, what positions have value and how certain players can have a huge effect on the final result of the NFL Draft.
All of these uncertainties are what makes the draft season so entertaining to fans. These questions impact mock drafts, stock reports, draft strategies and much more, and they will all be answered in the next month leading up to the late April 2011 NFL Draft.
30. What Will the Value of Kick Returners Be?
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With the NFL rule changes on where teams kick from, the value and impact of guys like Devin Hester, Josh Cribbs and Leon Washington will be hugely impacted, because now these players have much less chance of making an impact in the kick-return game.
It also impacts incoming rookies who were hoping to latch on to an NFL team through special teams before they stick as a position players. In particular, Jerrel Jernigan, Torrey Smith and many others may see their stocks dip a bit because that kick-return aspect means less now.
29. How Will New Coaches Approach the Draft?
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This includes both coaches on new teams (John Fox in Denver) and first-time head coaches (Ron Rivera in Carolina, Hue Jackson in Oakland, Leslie Frazier in Minnesota, Jim Harbaugh in San Francisco and Mike Munchak in Tennessee) because new coaches work with the GMs to build a team around what they feel is necessary.
While the GMs and owners have the final say usually, I would say that Rivera and Harbaugh in particular get a lot of say on draft day, as they wouldn't have taken their respective jobs if that wasn't the case.
28. Who Will Be the First Set of Small Schoolers Drafted?
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While there's no Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie or any other clear-cut top 20 small-school prospects, there could be as many as four or five taken in the first 100 picks.
Edmund Gates (WR, Abilene Christian) is climbing up boards. Taiwan Jones (RB, Eastern Washington) is going to be a third-fourth rounder at worst if his injury checks out.
Kenrick Ellis (DT, Hampton) is an outstanding athlete and likely a lock for the first round if it wasn't for character concerns. And finally, Ben Ijalana (OT, Villanova, pictured above) has the best chance of getting selected in the first round of the draft.
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27. After the Top 6, Who Will Step Up and Be the No. 7 Ranked Offensive Tackle?
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This may seem like a bit of a bogus, random question at first, but when you look at the top six tackles on just about every board (Tyron Smith, Gabe Carimi, Derek Sherrod, Nate Solder, Anthony Castonzo and Ben Ijalana), they all likely won't leave the first 40 picks.
However, after those guys, there isn't an offensive tackle with value until the fourth-to-fifth round. However, at least one team will "reach" and over-pick a tackle simply because there isn't any of value in the second-to-third rounds. My favorites of that second-tier group are Jason Pinkston of Pittsburgh, Chris Hairston of Clemson and small-school stud David Mims of Virginia Union.
26. After Julio and A.J., Who's the No. 3 Wide Receiver?
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As the draft gets closer, reports are coming out that A.J. Green and Julio Jones are actually battling it out on some teams' boards for the top receiver, and that neither will leave the top 10. However, similar to the offensive tackles, there isn't a clear-cut No. 3 receiver in this draft, even though many teams in the bottom of the first round have a need there.
It's likely between four guys.
Jonathan Baldwin, of Pittsburgh, has the size and athletic ability, but he has major character red flags.
Jerrel Jernigan, of Troy, i's electrifying as a receiver, slot receiver and returner, but he has size and injury concerns.
Torrey Smith, of Maryland, has the raw speed and overall receiver skills, but still needs a lot of work technique-wise.
My pick is Leonard Hankerson, of Miami, who has the size, hands, vertical and routes to be successful, but is lacking great speed.
25. Can Minnesota and Dallas Use the Draft for a Quick Turnaround?
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Two teams many had as potential Super Bowl contenders coming into the 2010 NFL season were the Minnesota Vikings and the Dallas Cowboys. The Vikings were one Brett Favre interception away from the big game the year before, and the Cowboys had a loaded offense and the appeal of a hometown Super Bowl.
But thanks to injuries and inconsistencies, neither team finished in the top half of the league's final standings. Now, however, they both have a chance to get a top 15 talent that can hopefully turn around their franchises.
The Cowboys could target an offensive tackle or cornerback with the No. 9 pick (or trade down for the same positions) and the Vikings could be targeting a potential left tackle, a defensive end or a franchise quarterback.
24. Who Are the Safest Players in the 2011 NFL Draft?
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We always talk about boom-or-bust prospects or which guys will flop on their respective teams, but in reality, teams would much rather avoid the risk and take a guy that they know can be successful and has what they call a "high floor."
The four safest players in this draft appear to be Marcell Dareus (DT, Alabama), A.J. Green (WR, Georgia), Von Miller (OLB, Texas A&M) and Patrick Peterson (CB, LSU). These safe players will be highly coveted come draft day, especially by cheaper franchises, like the Carolina Panthers for example.
23. What's the Stock of the Productive Ahmad Black of Florida?
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After he finished his career at Florida with a two-interception game in a win over Penn State, Ahmad Black looked like he might be the one to take advantage of a weak safety class.
However, his size and speed concerns have shown up at the combine, at his pro day and in workouts with teams. Once viewed as a second-to-third rounder, teams are so concerned with his size and speed that he may fall into the fourth, fifth, even sixth round of the draft.
22. Which Cornerback Will Go Higher: Prince Amukamara or Jimmy Smith?
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At one point, rumors suggested teams have Jimmy Smith of Colorado as the higher-rated cornerback between he and Prince Amukamara. While I never believed that for most teams that I spoke with, it became clear that Amukamara's stock was slipping a bit and that Smith was rising.
However, now that the character concerns are exposed on Smith (and we didn't think his film was as elite as some made it out to be), it looks as though Amukamara's stock is back in the top 10 mix and Smith is closer to the bottom half of the first round, if that. Still, it'll be interesting to see if a team jumps ship from the conventional wisdom and grabs Smith before Amukamara.
21. How Will Suspension Impact Robert Quinn, Marvin Austin, Greg Little's Stock?
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Quite a few of the 2009 North Carolina Tar Heels were suspended by the team, but only three got full season bans: DE Robert Quinn, DT Marvin Austin and WR Greg Little.
Now all three are in the NFL draft mix, and it's still unsure how all three are impacted by that.
Quinn is viewed by some as a top 10 pick, but because of this red flag and a benign tumor in high school, he may fall due to concerns by teams. Austin is likely out of the top 50 because of this and some already-concerning character and motor issues. And Little was viewed as a guy who just needed more in-game experience. Since he didn't get it this season, he likely will be a bit of a project for for someone in the middle rounds.
20. How Many Running Backs Will Be Taken in the First Round?
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As of now, it looks like only one running back will be taken in the top 32 this year, the above-pictured Mark Ingram. That's because there is such great value in the second-to-fourth rounds for the position, and there's no clear-cut elite-level runners.
However, it's very possible that Ingram falls out of the first round because he isn't a very flashy runner, just one who can put up great production in many ways, similar to a Curtis Martin, in the NFL. Also, keep in mind that around three running backs have been first rounders every year since 2003, and that trend could very possibly continue this year as well.
19. Will Any Safeties Be Selected in the First Round This Year?
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In the weakest safety class I've ever seen, there are only two-to-three guys who even have second-round value, not to mention first-round potential. Last year's class featured four-to-five solid-to-great starters, and this year we might be happy with two fringe starters.
The best of the bunch on most boards is UCLA safety Rahim Moore, who has the length, quickness, and size to be a starter, but isn't the type of wowing athlete or great instincts player that a team likely would take in Round 1. But team need could push him and other safeties up.
18. How High Will Justin Houston's Stock Go?
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An incredible overall athlete as an outside linebacker/defensive end, the 267-pound, 4.57 40-time running defender has been all over boards across the NFL.
Some love his first step, initial off-the-snap quickness, athletic ability, raw speed and explosiveness to make him a top 15 selection. Some worry about the diversity of his pass-rush moves, his hand usage and if he can use his athletic ability to become a productive starter.
The comparisons to Vernon Gholston do hold some merit and teams may shy away from him really early, but he's a great talent and should fall someplace in the first-round area.
17. How Will Tim Tebow Fit into the Broncos Draft Plans?
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The Broncos have taken the time to interview and work out some of the draft's top quarterback prospects for somewhat of an unknown reason, as the franchise just drafted a franchise quarterback last year in Tim Tebow.
However, it seems clear that John Elway would rather have his own quarterback be there, and appears not even close to sold on Tebow as a starter in the NFL. While I doubt it'll be a quarterback at pick No. 2, it will be interesting to see if, in this draft, they build around Tebow or build for the future on defense for when they get the quarterback they want.
16. Which Receiver Will Be Taken First: A.J. Green or Julio Jones?
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In my opinion, it's a no-brainer, but with teams like the Cleveland Browns saying that it's much closer than some are saying, the debate will come up. As you'll see later in the slideshow, I think A.J. Green of Georgia goes much higher than people are projecting.
However, I think if both Green and Julio Jones of Alabama are available at pick No. 6 for Cleveland, it could be down to the Browns organization to decide if they really meant what they said about Jones and Green being close as prospects. Still, Green is the better receiver on a majority of NFL boards.
15. How Many Quarterbacks Will Be Taken in Round 1?
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While I think only three have first-round value, there could be as many as five or even six taken in Round 1. The main reason is the collective-bargaining-agreement negotiations are not going well, and teams aren't sure of if they'll be able to sign free agents or trade for available quarterbacks until the season is nearly about to start.
It looks like, as of right now, Blaine Gabbert and Cam Newton will be top five picks, and Jake Locker will be someplace in the top 15 (don't knock it now, there is interest for sure). Also, Colin Kaepernick is shooting up boards because of his size and skill set, and could even end up in the top 20 by a reaching team or one trading up into the first round. Finally, Ryan Mallett, Christian Ponder and Andy Dalton all have reportedly been in the mix for a first-round selection.
I think at the end of the day it will be four (Gabbert, Newton, Locker, and Kaepernick), but with the CBA situation how it is right now, teams can't afford to pass on young quarterbacks like this early in the draft.
14. Are There Any "Elite" Quarterbacks in This Draft Class?
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We've had Matt Ryan, Matt Stafford, Mark Sanchez and Sam Bradford in recent years. All came into the league viewed as locks to be anywhere from good to great. And so far (except Stafford due to injury), they have all panned out as that potential elite-level quarterback.
However, this year there are major questions on if any of the top quarterbacks are at their level. Gabbert may be the first one to go, but teams aren't sold on his ability to consistently make all the throws with poise and accuracy, and he just doesn't exude that "it" factor to some teams. And Cam Newton has some character and ego concerns that may lead him to either be a bust or the next Ben Roethlisberger.
Either way, no quarterback in this class seems to be a lock to be great, which has been the norm in the past few seasons.
13. Who Will Fall on Draft Day?
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Every year, some players who fans, media and sabotaging teams hype up, end up in the lower portion or even out of the first round, and this year should be no different.
A few names to watch potentially fall on draft day include: Nate Solder (OT, Colorado), because he doesn't use his long arms well against power rushers and may not be a left or right tackle in the NFL; the aforementioned Justin Houston, who teams have concerns on whether he can diversify his pass-rush moves; and Aldon Smith (DE, Missouri), who has the size, speed and athleticism you want, but he has injury and consistency concerns.
12. Who Could Be This Year's Tyson Alualu?
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Last year, California defensive tackle/defensive end prospect Tyson Alualu was viewed as a second-to-third rounder by most, but ended up in the top 10, going to Jacksonville. He did, however, drastically outperform expectations and while he may never have top 10 value, he won't be considered a bust any time soon.
This year, the guy that has a shot to be really "overdrafted" but could have a major impact is Temple defensive tackle Muhammad Wilkerson, who has outstanding length, quickness, and fluidity for a guy his size. He has late-first, early-second round value, but teams like the Titans, Cowboys and Texans all could be interested in the top half of the first round.
11. How Will the Carson Palmer Concern Affect the Bengals Draft Plans?
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Cincinnati quarterback Carson Palmer said in recent weeks that he'll never set foot inside the stadium again as a member of the Bengals, and it still remains to be seen if the team will call his bluff. Without him, they are in a real pickle when it comes to their quarterback situation.
If Palmer stays, they could snatch up A.J. Green or Julio Jones to give him more receiver options to make the roster more enticing. If he goes, however, look for them to target Cam Newton in the first round at pick No. 4, or to try and trade up into the first round and get a guy like Colin Kaepernick of Nevada.
10. Could Miami and Jacksonville Be Targeting Quarterbacks in Round 1?
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In my opinion, the Dolphins and Jaguars are in OK shape at QB and would be wise to look elsewhere with their first rounder.
Chad Henne of the Dolphins needs offensive line help as, outside of Jake Long, that Dolphins group is lackluster. And David Garrard has played well for the Jaguars over his career, and with Jack Del Rio potentially on his last leg as the coach, you know he'd rather add a first-year impact guy.
If they are targeting a quarterback, both could look at Jake Locker and Colin Kaepernick in Round 1, as both make sense for their offenses. If they don't, look for the Dolphins to target a right tackle like Anthony Castonzo and the Jaguars to add more to their defense in the form of Ryan Kerrigan or Justin Houston.
9. Who Will Be the First Offensive Lineman Taken?
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Derek Sherrod of Mississippi State is our top-ranked offensive tackle and offensive lineman at www.OptimumScouting.com, but it looks as though he won't be taken there come draft day. It's likely down to Tyron Smith of USC, the athletic, potential left-tackle prospect, Gabe Carimi, the draft's best right tackle and run-game mauler, and center Mike Pouncey, brother of rookie sensation Maurkice Pouncey from the Steelers.
If the Cowboys stay at No. 9, Smith may be the favorite as he can play both the left and right side in due time. If they trade out of there, don't rule out Carimi or Pouncey being snatched up in the 12-to-17 area and being the first offensive lineman off the board.
8. What's the Ceiling on Wisconsin's J.J. Watt's Fast-Rising Draft Stock?
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J.J. Watt has a great story on his travel from Central Michigan defensive end to one of the top five players at his position leading up to the 2011 NFL Draft. Now, however, it appears it's not if he'll go in the first round, but how high.
I've heard reports that his ceiling is at pick No. 3 to Buffalo, but I think more likely, he has the potential to go No. 6 to Cleveland, No. 9 to Dallas, and No. 11 to Houston, all pretty impressive for a one-year wonder 5-technique talent from Wisconsin.
7. What Will Be the Real Value of the Patriots's No. 33 Overall Pick?
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Now that the draft is broken down into three days (since last year), the beginning of Day 2 starts with the second round. So now teams get a chance to sleep on how much they want a guy that somehow fell out of the first round.
The Patriots are known for being masters of the trade, and that pick may be of huge interest to a team looking for a quarterback or an elite athlete that fell for whatever reason. The Patriots could be able to swindle as much as a poor team's first-rounder next year, which could lead to two first-rounders yet again in 2012.
6. What Will Be the Final Word on the Fluctuating Nick Fairley Draft Stock?
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At one point just after the college football season was over, it looked as though the Auburn standout was slotted to go higher than Cam Newton and even be the top overall pick in the 2011 NFL Draft.
And while that is still a reasonable possibility, thanks to teams worried about his character, work ethic, and one-year wonder numbers, he may not only fall past the top three but maybe into the bottom of the top 10.
Does he have the talent? Yes, for sure. But teams in the top 10 will try and stay away from boom-or-bust prospects if possible, and there are far too many great defensive linemen in this class for a team to feel the need to draft Fairley if they aren't sold on his character.
5. What Will the Final Verdict Be on Players at the Actual NFL Draft?
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The NFLPA has come out and said that they are making plans for potential draft picks to not go to the NFL Draft in late April and go on stage with Roger Goodell, but to have their own draft party someplace else as a way to make another statement to NFL teams.
While I think this is terribly frustrating for these potential rookies to have to decide between a once-in-a-lifetime dream and making a good impression on your future teammates, it will be a debate for many players that are invited to the NFL Draft.
4. What Will Da'Quan Bowers Knee Injury Concerns Do to His Draft Stock?
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The 2010 NCAA sack leader, former top-overall high school recruit Da'Quan Bowers has all but lived up to his expectations coming out of high school, and after this wildly productive season this year, he was slated to be a top five pick.
Now, however, teams are very concerned with his knee surgery and how it's been healing. If teams don't feel he can be 100 percent before the draft or that it will have lingering concerns, Bowers could go from top five to out of the top 10 in a hurry. Regardless, however, I think he'll be a very productive defensive end in the NFL in the mold of a Julius Peppers.
3. How Will Teams Not Being Able to Sign UDFAs Affect Late Rounds of Draft?
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Pictured above is Arian Foster, the NFL's leading rusher last year for the Houston Texans, and former undrafted running-back prospect from Tennessee.
With the lockout, teams will be unable to sign both draft picks as well as players that fall out of the draft, which could have huge implications to how teams both are able to build their teams as well as who they target late in the draft.
Look for the fifth, sixth and seventh round to be filled with versatility guys, special teams players, guys worth the risk late, and system fits, not the project or potential-based players we see late in the drafts most years.
This year, teams won't get to bring in 20-to-25 guys, including draft picks. Because after April is done, they likely won't be able to bring in any new players until the CBA is reached just before the season.
2. Where Will Ryan Mallett's Character Concerns Drop Him To?
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Arguably the biggest story leading up to the draft, Ryan Mallett has been viewed throughout his whole career as an elite passer and one who can throw out of any bad situation. Sure, the mobility and the sideline accuracy are a concern, but his rocket arm is too much to pass on, right?
Well, thanks to rumors about drug use and overall character concerns, this first-round talent could slip past the top 32 and end up behind the likes of Jake Locker, Colin Kaepernick, Christian Ponder and Andy Dalton on draft day, something no one would have thought eight months ago.
Still, it only takes one, and I wouldn't rule out the question-mark-filled Mallett ending up someplace in the first round come late April.
1. Who Will the Carolina Panthers Select with the First Overall Selection?
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The first question that needs to be answered comes while the Carolina Panthers are still on the clock. Almost weekly, the projection changes from Nick Fairley to Cam Newton to Marcell Dareus to Blaine Gabbert and on and on.
As of now, the three favorites from people I've talked to are: Gabbert of Missouri, who may not be the pick because owner Jerry Richardson would rather not risk a bust and the GM likes Jimmy Clausen; Dareus, who is a great fit for the defense new coach Ron Rivera wants to run; and A.J. Green, maybe the best prospect in the draft and one that can replace Steve Smith as the primary weapon on offense.
My guess is that it's Green, but Dareus, Gabbert, and even Newton or Patrick Peterson are all in the mix. Whoever the pick is, it's going to be the first domino in what should be one of the most intriguing and unpredictable drafts in recent memory.
Check out www.OptimumScouting.com or follow me on twitter at www.twitter.com/OptimumScouting.
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