How Different Could 2010 Have Been for Federer and Nadal Had Del Potro Been Fit?

As 2009 drew to a close, Juan Martin del Potro was on course to spend 2010 battling with those right at the very pinnacle of men’s tennis. He had spent 2009 racking up over 50 wins, had secured his maiden Grand Slam and reached the final of the ATP World Tour Finals. After countless impressive displays, he finished the year fifth in the rankings and was the youngest player in the top 10. 

Despite this promise, 2010 barely even saw del Potro on a tennis court, banished to the treatment rooms, plagued by injury. His recent re-emergence on the tennis circuit has caused some people trouble in remembering just how dominant the Argentine was shaping up to be. 

Injury had first appeared to hamper him in January 2010, as del Potro was forced to withdraw from the second day of the AAMI Kooyong Classic. Victory during the first day of this tournament had elevated him to a career high No. 4 in the world. Despite growing pains in his wrist, del Potro then played the Australian Open. He did well enough, succumbing to eventual semifinalist Marin Cilic in the fourth round, after a grueling five-set battle. 

However that was to be the last the tennis public would see of the gangly Argentine for a considerable amount of time. As 2010 rolled by, del Potro pinpointed event after event in which he intended to launch a return, yet the ever increasing severity of his wrist injury prevented these appearances from materialising. Eventually, with few alternatives, and desperate to end the pain, the Argentine was forced to go under the knife, thus predominantly ending his season. It also meant he would have to relinquish his grasp on the US Open trophy, not fit enough to mount a defence. 

With no del Potro, 2010 saw typical dominance from Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal. Federer secured the Australian Open, with a comfortable victory over Andy Murray, and then the irrepressible Nadal triumphed at the French, Wimbledon and at Flushing Meadows, thwarting Robin Soderling, Tomas Berdych and Novak Djokovic, in similarly straight forward fashion. In fact only one set was conceded by the two greats in the process.

With a fighting fit del Potro, would these two giants of the modern game have secured these coveted titles? This is hard to argue against, such is the exalted status in men’s tennis they share and the legacy they will eventually leave behind. Though surely Nadal and Federer would have been more sternly tested in 2010 had they come up against del Potro in the form he had shown during his US Open win the year before, and in the months after it.

Interestingly, even in the semifinals, the eventual winner of the four Grand Slams of 2010 did not concede a single set and beat players that perhaps del Potro would have been able to dispatch in previous rounds, Youzhny, Melzer, Murray and Tsonga. 

Going into 2010, del Potro had won the most previous Grand Slam, taking out Federer and Nadal in the process. The magnitude of that task must be illuminated, as in the previous 18 Grand Slams before that, dating all the way back to 2005, Federer and Nadal had won 17 of the 18 Slams (and of course then the four of 2010). Novak Djokovic was the only man able to stem the tide, when he took the Australian Open in 2008. 

Del Potro’s defeats of Federer and Nadal in his US Open run, though contrasting, were equally significant. The Spaniard was dismissed 6-2, 6-2, 6-2 in the semifinal, comprehensively sent home. In March 2011, the Spaniard was quoted saying the nature of his defeat at the US Open was due to injury, although he did acknowledge he would have probably lost had he been totally fit that day, such was the level del Potro was playing at. After defeating him recently at Indian Wells, Nadal also said he expects del Potro to ascend back to the top positions in tennis very quickly.

His defeat of Federer was equally noteworthy. Installed naturally as a heavy underdog, del Potro lost the first set, a deed that statistically would see Federer win over 90 percent of matches from that position. He then came back again from 2-1 down in sets, to win on one of the grandest stages of them all, highlighting a big match temperament which seems to be a key ingredient missing and preventing several other players (perhaps Murray and Soderling) from taking that next step up. 

After his success at Flushing Meadows, del Potro continued to flourish, finishing 2009 with two straight victories against Roger Federer, as well as three straight victories against Rafael Nadal. These feats can be matched by few in the game, surely indicating how the top two would be in for some grueling contests in upcoming Grand Slams. It would have been interesting to see if he could have extended this run in 2010, as these mini streaks were formed at significant competitions where both of the modern day greats would have been near to, if not at their best.  

Armed with a game that can be devastating on all surfaces, a fit del Potro, free of injury would have severely disrupted some of the successes Nadal and Federer achieved in a dominant 2010 for the two champions. It is intriguing to ponder just where he would have got to had he been able to continue the way he was going through 2010.  

Who knows if “Delpo” will ever be able to attain the success in tennis that 2009 had suggested he could acquire. Since 2010, Novak Djokovic is now a two time Grand Slam winner, and the world No. 2. He seems to have taken his game to a new level in recent months and is a major threat at every tournament. Rarely has a tennis player been seen in such majestic form.

If you have not seen the Serb play recently, it is a must; the ease in which he is able to convert what is in his mind to the tennis court is almost mesmeric. Any time one can see such a high class player on top of his game, comfortable in himself and in the zone, is nothing short of pure art. Perhaps showing a glimpse of where del Potro could have been, had he continued to snowball through men‘s tennis. 

Since returning this year, del Potro has quickly climbed the rankings. He achieved a run to the semifinals of the Indian Wells Masters, where he was ousted by Nadal, despite an encouraging start where he broke the world No. 1 (this match ended the Spaniard’s losing streak to the Argentine). He also comfortably overcame his first opponent ranked in the top 10, when he knocked Robin Soderling out of Miami.

Del Potro has shown glimpses of that devastating, flat, bullet-like forehand, and dominant service game that could dictate terms in most matches. However, he is needing to be cautious, such was the severity of his injury, and he will need to regain an additional couple of gears to again be able to compete with the very elite.

If he does recapture all that potential and translate it onto the tennis court it would only be a blessing for men’s tennis, inflating the quality of the field further. Del Potro would be a direct rival for all future tennis goals. With Djokovic on such superb form at the moment, surpassing Federer to No. 2 in the world, del Potro could feasibly rise as high as No. 4 in the world in the not-too-distant future, even by the end of the year, injury permitting. From there, it is simply down to whether he can recapture his form of 18 months ago. At still just 22 years of age, he has ample time on his side.