2011 NFL Draft Results: The Perception of Julio Jones in Atlanta Is Not Reality

Julio Jones was the second-best wide receiver coming out of high school.  He was a star receiver in college football.  He was the second-best receiver coming out of college.  He was a top-10 talent.  He can become a very good NFL receiver.

The Atlanta Falcons have an elite NFL quarterback.  They do not have a dynamic offense.  They needed a second weapon to complement the best receiver in the league in 2010, Roddy White. 

However, Julio Jones does not solve the Atlanta Falcons' problems on offense.

There is no doubting Jones' ability.  He is a star receiver with the potential to be one of the best in the league at some stage during his career.  However, he is not what the Falcons offense needs.  

You will read a lot about the fact that the Falcons gave up too much to get Jones and that they shouldn't have been so aggressive.  I have no problem with any NFL team being aggressive in trying to improve their football team through trades.  

The Falcons paid a heavy price, but careful teams don't win Super Bowls.  You have to be aggressive if you see a player that you think can help you win a ring.

The problem is that the Falcons aren't picking up a player that can help them win a ring.  They are picking up a player that will hinder their offense.

Prior to last year's NFL season, I was lambasted for predicting that the Cincinnati Bengals offense was better off without Terrell Owens and for saying the team as a whole would finish last in the AFC North.

I saw the Bengals going 5-11, which turned out to be one better than their actual record.  

This was largely due to their offensive futility (they ranked 22nd in the league in points scored).  The Atlanta Falcons offense is going to suffer from the same problems that the Bengals offense did last season.

The overall lack of pace of the starters in Atlanta will make things easier on opposing defenses.  Jones may have run a 4.39 at the combine on a fractured foot, but multiple scouts, such as NFL Network's Michael Lombardi, have claimed that that doesn't translate to the field.  On an episode of Bill Simmons' BS Report, Lombardi claimed that Jones plays somewhere around a 4.5 40 time on tape.

A receiver running a 4.5 is not going to scare defenses at the NFL level on deep routes.

Ironically, Jones' best comparison at the NFL level is Roddy White.  White can go deep but does not specialize in stretching the defense.  If a team plays with two possession receivers and no realistic deep threat, the opposing safeties are not restricted against the run or reading the quarterbacks eyes.

This is where the Bengals comparison comes into play.  The Bengals struggled last season because defenses did not have to worry about covering deep when playing them.  They could play close to the line of scrimmage or stack the box knowing that the Bengals were playing with two possession receivers—Chad Ohcocinco and Terrell Owens—on the outside.

White and Jones are both physical specimens with unnatural upper body strength for receivers.  They can both beat their defenders in one-on-one situations, but not in the way that a Mike Wallace or DeSean Jackson can.  Neither player has breakaway speed at the NFL level.

This isn't to say that they can't outrun defenders, but they can't do it week in and week out.

Couple this with the fact that Tony Gonzalez is a possession target at tight end and Michael Turner's greatest ability is running between the tackles and the offense looks to be even less dynamic than last season.

While Michael Jenkins and Harry Douglas weren't exactly stellar receivers, they did lead the team in yards per reception (Douglas 13.4 and Jenkins 12.3).  The Falcons may look to use more three- and four-wide receiver formations in 2011 to take advantage of the growth of Matt Ryan, but I still expect them to be a run-first team.

This tells me that the offense will predominantly feature only Jones and White as receivers, adding in a fullback or second tight end in place of a slot receiver.  Jones will be the starter—the team has given up too much for him to play in the slot or sit on the bench.

Falcons general manager Thomas Dimitroff reportedly said on the Colin Cowherd radio show that Jones will improve the offense by making other players more effective.  This was also said of Owens when he signed for the Bengals.

Everyone thought Owens would relieve the pressure on Chad Ochocinco and give Carson Palmer another weapon to play with.  

There is no doubt that Jones gives Ryan another weapon to play with, but he needs an arsenal of targets that complement each other for the overall benefit of the offense.  Simply throwing talented pieces together and hoping for the best isn't how you win Super Bowl rings.

The Falcons may rue this trade, not because of the price, but because of the end product.  Julio Jones does not solve their pass-rush problem, he won't be covering opposing receivers and he doesn't look like he's going to help the Falcons offense, either.

It's way too early to call this pick a bust or even a bad decision, but as things currently stand, it's difficult to see how this will benefit the Falcons franchise.  

The team's desperation to aid their elite quarterback has altered their perception of reality.

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