2011 NFL Offseason: The Top 10 Quarterbacks Potentially Available
Finding a quarterback who can lead your franchise for the short and long term is no easy task.
And while teams like the Rams, Jets, Bucs, Falcons and Ravens hit home runs in the past few years as far as finding their franchise quarterbacks, close to half the NFL is still up in the air about if they have a guy on the roster who can lead them to a Super Bowl.
This list comprises players who are free agents, draft prospects and ones who can be acquired via trade. I've attached a draft projection to each player, as teams will have to decide what these quarterbacks' values are.
The lockout drastically influences this whole idea because teams can't trade for or sign any quarterbacks not in the draft. But in a perfect situation, here is the value of each of the top 10 quarterbacks who are potentially available in the 2011 NFL offseason.
10. Christian Ponder, Florida State (Draft)
1 of 10
The now former Seminole is viewed as one of the five or six top quarterback prospects in the draft because of his accuracy, pocket presence, mobility and developed technique.
And while some scouts from respected websites, as well as some NFL personnel, feel he might end up being taken in middle-to-early second round or even slide into the late first round, he does not have great value there at all.
Ponder dealt with injuries throughout his college career, he doesn't have elite arm strength to make up for his occasional poor decisions and I just don't see NFL starting material out of him in the NFL. He could develop into a starter long term, but as of now he's viewed as a solid backup in the NFL.
Comparison Value: Third or fourth round
9. Kyle Orton, Denver Broncos (Trade)
2 of 10
With only Tim Tebow on the Broncos roster as Orton's quarterback competition, it would appear that Orton should be back in Denver for another season.
However, with John Elway now in charge and looking for a franchise quarterback, Orton may not be in his plans. Also, Orton was brought in by former coach Josh McDaniels, not new coach John Fox. Finally, he's due over $7 million in 2011.
The Dolphins and Vikings are reportedly showing interest already. With the stats he put up last year and with him always being viewed as having that "just good enough of a game manager" tag tied to him, Orton could be a capable starter for an NFL team.
Comparison Value: Third or fourth round
Check out www.OptimumScouting.com for more NFL Draft Insight or follow me on Twitter! (www.twitter.com/OptimumScouting)
8. Donovan McNabb, Washington Redskins (Free Agency)
3 of 10
Though as of now McNabb is slated as the Redskins starter, it's almost a lock that he won't be back with the team in 2011. He's due over $11 million next year, and for a 34-year-old quarterback not named Brady, Manning or Brees, that's way too much.
Reports are that teams may prefer going with a younger quarterback via trade or go to the draft, but with at least eight to 10 teams in the market for a starting quarterback, it'd be hard to imagine McNabb not slated as a starter somewhere next year.
The Vikings seem like a perfect fit, and he was rumored to be in the mix for the 49ers and Dolphins as well before he was traded to Washington from Philadelphia last offseason.
Comparison Value: Third or fourth round
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7. Ryan Mallett, Arkansas (Draft)
4 of 10
Now we get to a potential franchise quarterback in the list. Ryan Mallett has been the topic of major discussion when it comes to NFL Draft stock, as he ranges from a third-round prospect to actually getting a playbook and interview from the Carolina Panthers, who pick at No. 1 overall.
Mallett has the NFL arm and he is able to make all the NFL throws and make them well. But he wasn't consistently accurate down the field and along the sidelines, he is Drew Bledsoe-type immobile, and he has some major character red flags that could drop him a full round.
Still, finding a quarterback with Mallett's skill set could be worth the risk for at least one team, and getting a top 10 quarterback arm in the second-to-third round area is something that's hard to pass up.
Comparison Value: Second or third round
6. Colin Kaepernick, Nevada (Draft)
5 of 10
During his senior season, Colin Kaepernick was a trendy sleeper quarterback for many draft experts and probably even NFL teams, as he was viewed as a great developmental, fourth-to-fifth round prospect. However, after scouts reviewed his film and saw his substantial development first hand at the Senior Bowl (which I saw myself), it was clear that he wasn't going to last until Round 4.
The biggest knocks on Kaepernick are that he didn't take snaps from under center, he has footwork and throwing motion question marks, he struggles with accuracy on outside throws, and he needs overall technique work. He improved all of those at the Senior Bowl and at his recent pro day, and now he is firmly in the discussion for a late first-round selection.
However, based on my evaluation, I'm not sure if he really showed enough to me this offseason to be worthy of a first-round selection, as he is still quite a bit of a project. But his personality, leadership, rocket arm and with so many teams needing a quarterback, he could slide into the first-round area.
Comparison Value: Second round
5. Cam Newton, Auburn (Draft)
6 of 10
First off, let me say this: Cam Newton has the highest ceiling of any quarterback prospect I've ever scouted coming out of college. His running ability, smooth athletic ability, outstanding arm strength, strength in the pocket and winning ways are so rare that there is almost no way he gets out of the top eight picks.
However, in terms of value, I'm not sure if I'd be the one willing to stick my neck out there and overlook his major accuracy, touch, leadership and character concerns. Potential is one thing, but drafting a quarterback in the top 10 is the equivalent of putting all your chips in as a GM and coach, and I didn't see Newton as that type of guy.
While he'll go in those top eight picks, I think he has better value (such as less pressure on him, more talent around him, etc.) later than that.
Comparison Value: Mid-first round
Check out www.OptimumScouting.com for more NFL Draft Insight or follow me on Twitter! (www.twitter.com/OptimumScouting)
4. Jake Locker, Washington (Draft)
7 of 10
As far as Internet sources and mock drafters are concerned, I think we at Optimum Scouting are almost alone in liking of Jake Locker. He had terrible stats in his senior season at Washington, he wasn't wowing at the Senior Bowl and he has been called a second-round quarterback prospect by many.
However, based on the people I spoke with around the NFL, especially teams with needs at quarterback, Jake Locker still has some demand, and I'd be absolutely shocked if he lasted past Pick 32. He has accuracy flaws, sure, but he's more dynamic outside the pocket and he has much better footwork and overall technique than Gabbert or Newton.
Locker was viewed as the No. 2 quarterback on most boards back in the 2010 NFL Draft if he would have come out, and players don't get worse over time. In what I've heard, I think he'll end up being a Redskin or Viking when it's all said in done, and it should be somewhere in the top 20.
Comparison Value: Mid-first round
3. Carson Palmer, Cincinnati Bengals (Trade)
8 of 10
The former No. 1 overall pick from a while back has never been able to lead his team past the first round of the playoffs. While it ultimately falls on the quarterback for not leading his team to wins, you could easily make the argument that a lack of a good defense, a lack of good protection and a lack of consistent functionality in the media and locker room aided to his and the team's struggles.
Now Carson wants out. And while I generally don't support trade requests, his frustration is evident and probably well founded. As of now, the Bengals are calling his bluff and looking at non-quarterback options in the draft. But if he's serious about his statement that he'll never set foot inside the stadium as a Bengal, then he could be a highly-coveted quarterback on the market.
With the build of a prototypical quarterback, his rocket arm, good accuracy and poise in the pocket aren't easy to find. Though he's had to deal with injuries and struggles over his career, he still has the potential and the value of a first-round quarterback prospect.
Comparison Value: Mid-first round
2. Blaine Gabbert, Missouri (Draft)
9 of 10
The top quarterback prospect on most boards around the league, Blaine Gabbert has the size, mobility, accuracy and experience that you'd like for a first-round quarterback prospect.
We've had Gabbert as the No. 2 or No. 3 quarterback prospect in this draft since the start of the 2010 college football season. He has a high ceiling once he gets a chance to work with NFL personnel. With Andrew Luck going back to Stanford and Jake Locker exposing some flaws, Gabbert is sitting alone as the best quarterback.
However, teams, and myself, have concerns about his ability to consistently make NFL throws outside the hash marks. They don't know if he can be comfortable and not rush throws as he drops back. He has the mobility and accuracy to be an Aaron Rodgers-type player, but he needs to show composure before he can get to that level.
Comparison Value: Top 10 overall
1. Kevin Kolb, Philadelphia Eagles (Trade)
10 of 10
Viewed as the Eagles quarterback of the future, a major, yet cheap, signing has made Kolb expendable: Mike Vick.
Now the Eagles have an outstanding situation of having two of the top 25 quarterbacks in the NFL talent-wise on the roster. Kolb has showcased his ability to be a great passer and winner in the few stints he's had as the Eagles starter, but he wasn't able to pass Donovan McNabb or Michael Vick as the top man on the depth chart.
The Eagles have started to make it clear that Kolb, not Vick, is available via trade, and already reportedly have many first-round-level offers on the table. They're expecting more in both volume and value. Kolb can still be viewed as a quarterback of the future for some team because he still is young. Teams like Arizona, San Francisco and Minnesota all look like potential suitors.
Comparison Value: Top 10 overall
Check out www.OptimumScouting.com for more NFL Draft Insight or follow me on Twitter! (www.twitter.com/OptimumScouting)
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