2011 NFL Draft: Why the New England Patriots Have a Winning Strategy

With the 2011 NFL draft coming around the corner, New England Patriots fans and analysts alike are trying like mad to guess who their team is going to draft.

Honestly, they'd have better luck trying to solve a Rubik's cube while blindfolded.

In all honesty, though, who cares? The Patriots clearly know what they're doing—better than any of us do, at least.

When it comes to draft day, the Patriots do it better than just about any team in the league.

Although they are severely unpredictable, there are a few things which we can be sure of.

The first is that they will not reach. Every move the Patriots make will be based on what gives them the best value and what is best for the football team.

The Patriots don't enter the draft trying to fix their one biggest need; they try to improve the entire football team.

Some people may cross their fingers that the Patriots divert from their normal mentality of drafting only players that fit their 3-4 scheme perfectly. While this may seem like the prime year to draft a "pass-rush specialist" high, I wouldn't expect it to happen.

Why should the Patriots roll the dice on improving a lot (or not at all) on one pick when they can make five or six safer picks that could be improvements? The Patriots have won the division just about every year for the past decade with this philosophy.

Yes, the Patriots need to improve at outside linebacker. The draft will probably be the way in which they do that, but who knows? One of those five or six picks could develop into a star under the top-level coaching he'll receive with the Patriots coaching staff.

For years, the Patriots have dominated the competition by going against the grain—going after guys who didn't just fit their schemes, but fit their organization's line of thinking. This is how they have fostered the "Patriots way" in their organization for such a long time.

They go after the smart football players who are also athletic. In his book Take Your Eye Off The Ball, NFL.com senior analyst Pat Kirwan talks about Belichick's draft methods.

He says, "[Belichick] knows as well as anyone that ideas alone don't equal victories. It's not what Bill or any other coach knows—it's what the players know. That is why Belichick places such a high priority on finding players who are smart enough to execute the scheme he's running."

While some teams get caught up in a guy's stats, combine numbers or any other measurables, the Patriots put stock in mind over matter.

The second thing we can be sure of is that Belichick will make a lot of trades. According to NESN.com's Jeff Howe, only once in his tenure with the Patriots has Belichick not made a single trade. That was in 2004.

Over the past two years, though, his trade fever has been running high.

Howe says, "Belichick has made seven trades during each of the last two drafts. His previous high was six, which occurred during the 2001 and 2003 drafts."

But that's not all.

According to ESPN Boston's Mike Reiss, 25 of Belichick's draft-day trades have been trades down the board and/or those that give the team a selection in a future draft, and 15 draft-day trades have been a move up.

Why should the Patriots just make five or six picks this year when they can make five or six picks this year and set themselves up with a few more picks in 2012?

The reason the Patriots are so successful on draft day is because they're successful before draft day—long before draft day.

The Patriots are always staying ahead, getting ready to dominate the next year's draft while still dominating the current one.

Check out Erik Frenz's football curator page at myspace.com/football. Follow Erik on Twitter at @e_frenz.