Indian Wells: 10 Postmortems Following Novak Djokovic's Important Victory

I think Novak Djokovic's big win at Indian Wells was a rare instance of an event living up to the hype.  Before the tournament, everyone was buzzing about Djokovic. He was the hottest player in the world.  He was, essentially, the favorite to win—a new role that brought new pressure on him. 

Would there be a "changing of the guard" at the top of the men's tennis world?  Well, Djokovic answered that with a symbolic "bang" by defeating Roger Federer (semifinals) and Rafael Nadal (finals) back-to-back.  He displaced Federer at the No. 2 position in the world rankings, forcing Federer to No. 3. 

Speculation and excitement is already building about how the rankings in men's tennis will evolve in 2011 and who will win the most Grand Slam events.  

Yet, before looking ahead, I want to look back on several parts of the story of what happened at Indian Wells.  What specifically happened on the courts in the games of Djokovic, Nadal and Federer that led to the crowning of Djokovic?

The following are 10 postmortem observations I made of these three top players:

1)   Djokovic's serve was superior to both Federer's and Nadal's—a remarkable development given that only a year and a half or so ago, the inconsistency of Djokovic's serve hurt him against these rivals. 

In the Djokovic-Nadal match particularly, Nadal's struggles to get his first serve in in the second set proved to be a huge factor in the match.  Nadal acknowledged afterward how distracting his poor serving was to him.

2)  Djokokic's ground strokes and overall capacity to win long rallies proved a key factor against both Federer and Nadal.  Even though Federer hit the ball hard and "matched" Novak in rallies for much of their match, Djokovic still outlasted Fed in quite a few exchanges. 

Djokovic displayed just how far he has come in rallies when he also beat Nadal at his own game for parts of that match. He kept hanging in there, finding the delicate balance of hitting the ball hard but not overhitting for winners while, instead, belting winners at the right moments.

3)  Djokovic's attitude and mental focus proved to be a bit better than Federer and Nadal in more subtle, overlooked ways.  However, in the Federer match, Djokovic kept his cool a few times when in the past, he might have lost his focus. 

Further, Federer continued a disturbing trend (for him) of experiencing a loss in confidence and focus during a key part of the match.  I refer to the moment when Federer was serving at 40-15 when tied at 2-2 with Djokovic in the critical third set when suddenly, after talking to the umpire for a moment, Fed lost his concentration and began losing points. 

He ended up double-faulting to lose that key fifth game, in addition to losing 11 points in a row to Djokovic, who won the last four games of the match. 

During many key "turning points" of matches in the past two years, Federer, in contrast to his longtime tendency to win clutch points, has been getting tense or losing confidence or focus and losing these pivotal points. 

Nadal's mental struggles with Djokovic came when he suddenly realized his first serve just wasn't working.  He got very distracted and later said that impacted him even when he was not serving.

4)  Federer's serve continued to be poor to mediocre rather than excellent, as it used to be  For over two years. Federer's first serve has not been nearly as strong or effecitive or accurate as it was in his heyday. 

Observers continue to understate the enormous impact this has had on Federer's overall game.  How?  Well, he gets far, far fewer "easy points" in his matches—the kind when he used to belt a first serve, his opponent barely gets it back  and then Fed hits the next point for an easy winner. 

Those kinds of points used to happen in every single Federer service game.  Now, they've become rare. Djokovic was making Federer strain and struggle to win his serve the other day. 

Why?  Djokovic was pouncing on Fed's second serve and gaining an edge instead of being put on his heels.  I'm struck by how much even tennis observers have forgotten about how good Federer's serve was a few short years ago. 

I recall when Federer lost a tough five-set match to Nadal in the 2009 Australian Open, I wrote that I was amazed Fed had kept it so close without his good serve.  Serving well influences a tennis player's mind set toward other parts of the game.  Just consider what Nadal said about being distracted by his erratic serve Sunday.

5)  I'd even take this further by saying that if Federer can somehow, some way really work on getting his serve back to what it used to be, or, even close to that, he may be able to stick around and compete with Djokovic and Nadal the next year or two. 

If not, I think the loss of his powerful first serve makes it incredibly difficult to compete with them.  Why should it be impossible for him to get his serve back? 

6)  On the other hand, Federer actually played quite well against Djokovic!  He hit his ground strokes hard and deep, pushing Djokovic back.  In the past, sometimes Fed's forehands and backhands have not been deep enough, leaving Djokovic and Nadal to tee off on those shots. 

Federer was more aggressive—as his coach, Paul Annacone, reportedly wants him to be. He tried to shorten the rallies, at least some of the time, but, not enough of the time!  If anything, he could have been a bit more aggressive by going for shaper angles to hit winners more decisively.  Where did his crosscourt forehand go?

7)  I noticed Federer was back trying to run around his backhand a bit more often during his match against Djokovic, and, as a Federer fan, I think that's a good thing. 

Nadal and Djokovic have pinned Federer back on his deep backhand side and trapped him there.  Federer needs to take chances to hit more strong forehands—a habit he relied on during his days of winning Slams.

8)  Juan Martin del Potro looked quite impressive against Nadal in the semifinals, especially given he's still coming back from an injury. 

He hit his ground strokes well. He's got a way of placing "heavy" forehands and backhands with precision deep into his opponent's side.  To me, the primary "down side" for del Potro was that he still moved slowly sometimes in pursuit of the ball at the end of long rallies. 

I realize part of that is not being at full strength, but I recall, even back when he played Federer in the finals of the 2009 US Open, there were moments when del Potro wasn't quite as mobile.  My guess is he'll become more mobile, but, it's something to keep an eye on.

9)  It's easy to now imagine an entirely new rivalry between Nadal and Djokovic emerging. Their rallies on Sunday were dazzling.  

What's amazing is that Djokovic seems able to win almost the same number of long rallies as Nadal.  Whether Rafa's strengthened, "new" impressive serve from 2010 will re-emerge may be a critical factor in determining if he can defeat Djokovic.

10)  In the end, I believe that Djokovic and Federer have, essentially, swapped roles.  While Djokovic used to often make it to the semifinals before losing to Fed or Nadal, now, one gets the sense that Federer might be in that role. 

It will probably be harder for Fed to make it by either of these rivals to play in a Slam Final.    Federer is now the No. 3 who hopes to win an occasional Slam.