Roger Federer: Why His Third Straight Loss to Novak Djokovic Isn't All That Bad

Devastation: only this may adequately describe the bitter feeling for Federer fans after his third straight loss to Novak Djokovic at Indian Wells yesterday.

It was a crushing blow, losing to the same player thrice in a row; even more galling, however, will be the aftermath of this tournament.

Roger Federer will drop out of the top 2 for only the second time since having firmly ensconced himself there in 2003.

The feeling is, too, that Federer's fall to No. 3, this time, is likely to be more permanent than last year's - that for a brief spell after dropping huge numbers of points after Roland Garros and Wimbledon.

Indeed, Sunday's showpiece final only confirms the narrative that most people have been expecting since the so-called 'changing of the guard' in Melbourne this year; it's all about Novak chasing Rafa for the No. 1 ranking, and so it will prove in the final tomorrow.

The litany of suffering and loss for Federer seems to have no end. He ruins his win-loss record this year, loses the chance to win another Masters title, falls in the rankings, loses to Djokovic for the third straight time (purportedly confirming the changing of the guard), etc.

Nonetheless, there are some positives that may be referred to.

As bad as this loss may have been, Federer revealed and maintained that composure that he has become known for.

It is his stoic indifference to victory or defeat, ups and downs, which we saw well yesterday. His body language down 3-5 in the first set was not the desperate display of Djokovic when he was himself down that position in the second.

Federer is just uncannily able to pursue his one, magnificent game, with his scorching serve and forehand, whatever the event.

Even facing another defeat in the third, Federer pressed on, and played his best return game of the day at 1-2 in the third to break back to love...just as if the match had just started.

Its a sort of Swiss-clockwork precision and continuity of quality, a certain energetic sort of tennis, regardless of the scoreline, which seems to me, even after yesterday's defeat, to preclude any premature talk of exponential decline.

Anyone who plays with this type of vigour and resilience will have his day again one day, surely.

Secondly, the match yesterday was very much, if it was a reflection of anything greater and broader than itself, a story of confidence.

Djokovic had talked about it in his presser before the encounter, and it sure did him good in the toughest moments in the match.

At 2-2, 40-30 in the third set, Federer hit a fine serve down the T, and blasted a forehand to Djokovic's forehand corner...only to miss it marginally.

It was a small moment, but a significant and highly damaging one, and a point which summarised the problem of confidence.

The Roger Federer of 2005-06, totally confident of his abilities, and certainly of his forehand, would never have missed that shot; it was an error which one may quite confidently say was down to a lack of confidence.

Doubts clouded Federer's mind with that shot, as it had almost the whole match, with Djokovic's relentless, almost inhuman defense.

The Swiss maestro has found, in his last three matches with the Serb, a second Nadal, able to do on hard courts what the Spaniard has been able to do on clay.

It was a culmination of these doubts, largely in his ability to hit winners against Djokovic, that founded that forehand error. Federer would lose that game, and the three thereafter to lose the match.

OK, maybe there has been some over-analysis going on here: that doubts plague Federer's mind, that Djokovic has been plaguing his mind, however, is hard to dispute.

Yet confidence is a funny animal, and we saw that in the second set. Perhaps if there is to be any lasting lesson or positives-drawing from this match, it would have to be Federer's resurgence in the second set.

He was looking alarmingly lost in the first moments of it, and Djokovic seemed headed for some 6-3, 6-3, or 6-1, victory. Then suddenly, his first serves went in, his level went up, and Djokovic couldn't find the rhythm he had been thriving on.

A magnificent forehand screamer sealed the first break at 1-1. Minor changes, getting his first serve in, had awoken the beast in the Swiss.

Even with talk of decline, one can hardly say that the reserves of his native confidence, and champion's ability to respond in even the deepest crisis, are lacking.

Lastly, positives can be drawn from Djokovic's side. If his three victories have really been as epochal as people have set out to prove, how can we justify the oohs and expressions of anguish which peppered the Serb's body language throughout the match?

There are still doubts in his mind, and there were certainly moments when he doubted his ability to win.

Does one recall the same angst (even perhaps desperation), in Federer's own rise to the top in 2003? Maybe not.

As long as Federer is playing tennis, one suspects, there may never be a true changing of the guard. He would have far too much trust in his ability, and be too resilient, to suggest that on court.

The great ones always find ways out of the darkest times, and this, certainly, is nowhere close to his darkest times.

Genius has its own measure of things, and we would do well to acknowledge that Federer's time will surely come again.