
MLB Predictions 2011: Projecting the Opening-Day Lineups for All 30 Teams
Albert Pujols will bat third when the St. Louis Cardinals open their season next week. The Boston Red Sox will slot in Jacoby Ellsbury as their leadoff hitter, according to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. Ryan Howard is a pretty safe bet to bat fourth for the Philadelphia Phillies.
Yet not every manager likes to tip his hand so early in camp. New York Yankees manager Joe Girardi seemingly intends to keep fans scribbling and scratching out the names (written on backs of enveloped and restaurant napkins) of Brett Gardner, Derek Jeter and Curtis Granderson until Opening Day.
Soon, those hypothetical lineups will give way to the real thing, as the season goes live in less than two weeks.
Here is a quick rundown of the projected Opening Day lineup for every team in baseball.
Arizona Diamondbacks
1 of 30
1. Stephen Drew, SS
2. Justin Upton, RF
3. Kelly Johnson, 2B
4. Chris Young, CF
5. Miguel Montero, C
6. Gerardo Parra, LF
7. Juan Miranda, 1B
8. Melvin Mora, 3B
9. Ian Kennedy, SP
Upton is in perfect position betting second, but Drew, Johnson and Young are all more like sixth hitters. Chase Field in Arizona is one of the three best hitters' parks in baseball, which has inflated their stats somewhat, and the lack of a true offensive superstar forces each to bat slightly out of position. Still, this lineup can sting you, especially at the top.
Atlanta Braves
2 of 30
1. Martin Prado, LF
2. Jason Heyward, RF
3. Chipper Jones, 3B
4. Dan Uggla, 2B
5. Brian McCann, C
6. Nate McLouth, CF
7. Freddie Freeman, 1B
8. Alex Gonzalez, SS
9. Derek Lowe, SP
I'm not sure why Lowe gets the Opening Day nod, and if McLouth really bats higher in the order than Heyward. But in general, this is a good lineup. Jones' superb spring has to be encouraging after such an uncertain offseason. The X-factor here is Freeman, a rookie who will not be Heyward-good but who should hit and field enough and (as a league-minimum guy) gives the team an extra sliver of payroll flexibility around the trade deadline if McLouth or Gonzalez collapse.
Baltimore Orioles
3 of 30
1. Adam Jones, CF
2. Nick Markakis, RF
3. Derrek Lee, 1B
4. Vladimir Guerrero, DH
5. Luke Scott, LF
6. Mark Reynolds, 3B
7. J.J. Hardy, SS
8. Matt Wieters, C
9. Robert Andino, 2B
SP: Jeremy Guthrie
If Brian Roberts is ready for Opening Day, terrific, but it sure doesn't fit with his track record to expect that at this stage. Roberts is battling a back injury. He played on Sunday but has some hurdles yet to clear before being full-game ready.
In the meantime, Jones moves from the sixth slot in the order to the leadoff role he performed 15 times last season. With Roberts, this lineup gets much better as Hardy slides to its bottom and Reynolds becomes a lethal power threat for a seventh hitter. As an aside, it sure would be nice for the organization to make a good-faith gesture to important long-term assets like Brian Matusz, who should be the Opening Day starter, instead of prioritizing veterans like Guthrie, Lee and Guerrero.
Boston Red Sox
4 of 30
1. Jacoby Ellsbury, CF
2. Dustin Pedroia, 2B
3. Carl Crawford, LF
4. Kevin Youkilis, 3B
5. Adrian Gonzalez, 1B
6. David Ortiz, DH
7. Jarrod Saltalamacchia, C
8. J.D. Drew, RF
9., Marco Scutaro, SS
SP: Jon Lester
Adrian Gonzalez is going to bat fifth for this team. Fifth! They must stay healthy, but this Red Sox team could be the offensive juggernaut of the past 10 years. Ellsbury's monster spring helped him spring board all the way from the bottom to the top of the order, and if he hits the way he has so far, look out.
About the only problem in sight is that the Sox may be a bit too left-handed, but when (not if) Jed Lowrie usurps Scutaro at shortstop, they can slot him in sixth or seventh and the balance of power swings a bit more into equilibrium.
Chicago Cubs
5 of 30
1. Kosuke Fukudome, RF
2. Starlin Castro, SS
3. Marlon Byrd, CF
4. Aramis Ramirez, 3B
5. Carlos Pena, 1B
6. Alfonso Soriano, LF
7. Geovany Soto, C
8. Blake DeWitt, 2B
9. Ryan Dempster, SP
Question marks abound, but there is upside here. Castro has four homers and a 1.098 OPS in his first 48 Cactus League plate appearances. Byrd is carving up the spring, but he may be the most volatile entity: Is he the guy who has shown up this spring, and who slugged ferociously in the first half last season?
If so, he fits as the third hitter in the order. But if he turns out to be more like the guy whose OPS after June 13 was .677, then batting him there turns into a nightmare for Mike Quade. Looking for the lineup most likely to be overhauled in every way before Opening Day 2012? Here it is.
Chicago White Sox
6 of 30
1. Juan Pierre, LF
2. Gordon Beckham, 2B
3. Adam Dunn, DH
4. Paul Konerko, 1B
5. Alex Rios, CF
6. Carlos Quentin, RF
7. Alexei Ramirez, SS
8. A.J. Pierzynski, C
9. Brent Morel, 3B
SP: Mark Buehrle
If I were writing the lineup card, Rios would bat second, Konerko and Dunn would switch places and John Danks would get the nod on the mound. Anyone who has read my work in the past knows that is not the first or last disagreement to be found between Ozzie Guillen and I.
For the most part, though, this is a dangerous lineup. Beckham is a breakout candidate, but Pierzynski, Konerko and Pierre are much better bets to break down, so role players (especially Lastings Milledge, Dayan Viciedo and Tyler Flowers) need to be ready to make big contributions.
Cincinnati Reds
7 of 30
1. Drew Stubbs, CF
2. Brandon Phillips, 2B
3. Joey Votto, 1B
4. Scott Rolen, 3B
5. Jay Bruce, RF
6. Jonny Gomes, LF
7. Edgar Renteria, SS
8. Ramon Hernandez, C
9. Edinson Volquez, SP
Renteria and Hernandez ought to be replaced by Ryan Hanigan and Paul Janish, but we all know how Dusty Baker loves old men who refuse walks. Rolen had an awfully shaky second half and is getting old, so the less the defending NL Central champs can rely on him as their cleanup guy, the better. Stubbs and Bruce have such high ceilings, though, that the team could well lead the NL in runs again this season. On the pitching side, the Reds have six pitchers of very different types but strikingly similar overall value, so Volquez comes out of a hat to pitch first.
Cleveland Indians
8 of 30
1. Michael Brantley, CF
2. Asdrubal Cabrera, SS
3. Shin-Soo Choo, RF
4. Carlos Santana, C
5. Travis Hafner, DH
6. Austin Kearns, LF
7. Matt LaPorta, 1B
8. Jack Hannahan, 3B
9. Orlando Cabrera, 2B
SP: Fausto Carmona
Choo and Santana are the only bats for which anyone in baseball begrudges the Indians. In fact, though Brantley has upside, there just are not a lot of guys with high ceilings around those two. Jason Donald and Grady Sizemore will start the season on the DL. Sizemore could make an impact if and when he returns, and Lonnie Chisenhall will soon be ready to take over third base. If Jason Kipnis also makes a bold run to the big leagues by season's end, they suddenly get a lot better.
Colorado Rockies
9 of 30
1. Dexter Fowler, CF
2. Seth Smith, RF
3. Carlos Gonzalez, LF
4. Troy Tulowitzki, SS
5. Todd Helton, 1B
6. Ian Stewart, 3B
7. Jose Lopez, 2B
8. Chris Iannetta, C
9. Ubaldo Jimenez, SP
The Rockies have depth, but it still feels a bit like a stars-and-scrubs lineup: Gonzalez, Tulowitzki and Jimenez are so much better than the other guys in this lineup it makes Smith, Stewart and Iannetta look bad.
The Rockies will field the ball really well and pitch even better, so a lot rides on the success of this batting order. Smith, Fowler, Stewart and Iannetta all profile as full-time players for the first time, so it's tough to decide whether or not they will make the grade.
Detroit Tigers
10 of 30
1. Austin Jackson, CF
2. Will Rhymes, 2B
3. Magglio Ordonez, RF
4. Miguel Cabrera, 1B
5. Victor Martinez, DH
6. Ryan Raburn, LF
7. Jhonny Peralta, SS
8. Brandon Inge, 3B
9. Alex Avila, C
SP: Justin Verlander
Rhymes looked really good in half a year's work in 2010, but after the Scott Sizemore debacle at the beginning of last year (this writer's AL Rookie of the Year pick, Sizemore hit .224/.296/.336), it's tough to trust that completely. Raburn is the name to watch, getting his first full-time job. He could hit 25 homers.
Risk is everywhere, though. Martinez has been fragile at times in the past. Ordonez has been even more so. Jackson is a massive regression risk. Measure your enthusiasm carefully.
Florida Marlins
11 of 30
1. Chris Coghlan, CF
2. Omar Infante, 2B
3. Hanley Ramirez, SS
4. Mike Stanton, RF
5. Gaby Sanchez, 1B
6. Logan Morrison, LF
7. John Buck, C
8. Matt Dominguez, 3B
9.. Josh Johnson, SP
I have read all the mathematical formulae and proofs that batting order does not matter much, but I happen to think it does, both for statistical reasons and for psychological ones. I hate the notion of letting young players hit lower in the order just to avoid pressure, and I hate when inferior hitters with rather vague credentials as good bat-handlers or high-contact types bat second in favor of true OBP machines. Yet, such is the case in Florida, where it looks like Infante has the second slot locked down over Logan Morrison, who falls all the way to sixth.
Houston Astros
12 of 30
1. Michael Bourn, CF
2. Clint Barmes, SS
3. Hunter Pence, RF
4. Carlos Lee, LF
5. Chris Johnson, 3B
6. Bill Hall, 2B
7. Brett Wallace, 1B
8. Humberto Quintero, C
9. Brett Myers, SP
Chris Johnson has nearly no track record, Wallace has not succeeded in the big leagues yet, and Hall leveraged a solid 2010 fill-in with Boston into his starting job. Oh, and Carlos Lee and Michael Bourn had miserable years at the plate in 2010. Now add to the equation the season-ending injury to catcher Jason Castro. Houston, we have a cliche.
Kansas City Royals
13 of 30
1. Mike Aviles, 3B
2. Melky Cabrera, CF
3. Billy Butler, 1B
4. Kila Ka'aihue, DH
5. Jeff Francoeur, RF
6. Alex Gordon, LF
7. Brayan Pena, C
8. Chris Getz, 2B
9. Alcides Escobar, SS
SP: Luke Hochevar
Bring back Gil Meche!
Los Angeles Dodgers
14 of 30
1. Rafael Furcal, SS
2. James Loney, 1B
3. Matt Kemp, CF
4. Andre Ethier, RF
5. Jay Gibbons, LF
6. Juan Uribe, 2B
7. Rod Barajas, C
8. Jamey Carroll, 3B
9. Clayton Kershaw, SP
Casey Blake might be ready for Opening Day, but boy, I doubt it. In the meantime, Carroll is the safest and steadiest fill-in. Is it too late for James Loney to break out? No, but it sure seems less likely with each passing month. Overall, the lineup is missing something, but their run-prevention staff might make up for that deficiency.
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
15 of 30
1. Howie Kendrick, 2B
2. Erick Aybar, SS
3. Bobby Abreu, DH
4. Torii Hunter, RF
5. Vernon Wells, LF
6. Mark Trumbo, 1B
7. Maicer Izturis, 3B
8. Jeff Mathis, C
9. Peter Bourjos, CF
SP: Jered Weaver
Having two automatic outs in one lineup is a near-fatal flaw in the American League, even if your superstar slugger is healthy to start the season. Until Kendrys Morales returns, this team will not hit consistently or well. That said, I do like Mark Trumbo and the old men flanking Bourjos in the outfield.
Milwaukee Brewers
16 of 30
1. Rickie Weeks, 2B
2. Corey Hart, RF
3. Ryan Braun, LF
4. Prince Fielder, 1B
5. Casey McGehee, 3B
6. Yuniesky Betancourt, SS
7. Carlos Gomez, CF
8. Jonathan Lucroy, C
9. Yovani Gallardo, SP
Gallardo might be better than Betancourt, Gomez or Lucroy. Just saying. What a funny combination of players this team has assembled: Sabermetric punchline Betancourt shares the left side of the infield with a guy whom scouts have always run down for being stocky but who has proven he can hit. Meanwhile, supernal player-development (in the person of Braun) plays alongside a ruthlessly mismanaged talent (Gomez).
Minnesota Twins
17 of 30
1. Denard Span, CF
2. Tsuyoshi Nishioka, 2B
3. Joe Mauer, C
4. Justin Morneau, 1B
5. Delmon Young, LF
6. Michael Cuddyer, RF
7. Jim Thome, DH
8. Danny Valencia, 3B
9. Alexi Casilla, SS
SP: Carl Pavano
They could have the second or third-best lineup in the league this year. Mauer and Morneau present risk of injury, but they will hit when in the lineup. Span had a rough 2010, but I expect a bounce-back, and Nishioka should be a solid (if unspectacular) contributor.
That the team is starting Pavano over Francisco Liriano on Opening Day is slimy and foolish but shouldn't greatly damage their playoff hopes.
New York Mets
18 of 30
1. Jose Reyes, SS
2. Angel Pagan, CF
3. David Wright, 3B
4. Jason Bay, LF
5. Ike Davis, 1B
6. Scott Hairston, RF
7. Josh Thole, C
8. Daniel Murphy, 2B
9. Mike Pelfrey, SP
Carlos Beltran is not going to be ready for the opener. Second base is wide open, because Luis Castillo is gone. There are more moving parts than Terry Collins would prefer, but then, if there were fewer moving parts, the Mets might never have had need for his services. Thole is my favorite sleeper who could have a big year at catcher, not hitting more than 10 homers but reaching base at a .370-plus clip.
New York Yankees
19 of 30
1. Brett Gardner, LF
2. Derek Jeter, SS
3. Mark Teixeira, 1B
4. Alex Rodriguez, 3B
5. Robinson Cano, 2B
6. Nick Swisher, RF
7. Jorge Posada, DH
8. Russell Martin, C
9. Curtis Granderson, CF
SP: CC Sabathia
Joe Girardi is a really good politician. "No, Derek Jeter, we're not slowly phasing you out of the leadoff spot by trying your best replacement there over and over this spring."
It's happening. Gardner deserves that spot, and he is going to get it. After that, line them up any way you want: The Yankees offense is surpassed only by Boston's. Now if only Teixeira could pitch for the first month or so...
Oakland Athletics
20 of 30
1. Coco Crisp, CF
2. Daric Barton, 1B
3. David DeJesus, RF
4. Josh Willingham, LF
5. Hideki Matsui, DH
6. Kurt Suzuki, C
7. Mark Ellis, 2B
8. Kevin Kouzmanoff, 3B
9. Cliff Pennington, SS
SP: Gio Gonzalez
If David DeJesus bats third for you, you know you lack power. Given strict financial constraints, though, Oakland did improve their lineup in a significant way this winter. DeJesus, Willingham and Matsui have pushed Suzuki and Kouzmanoff closer to where they belong—at the bottom of the order. Though under-the-radar, the A's could be a serviceable offense and an elite defensive group this season.
Philadelphia Phillies
21 of 30
1. Jimmy Rollins, SS
2. Shane Victorino, CF
3. Raul Ibanez, LF
4. Ryan Howard, 1B
5. Ben Francisco, RF
6. Placido Polanco, 3B
7. Carlos Ruiz, C
8. Luis Castillo, 2B
9. Roy Halladay, SP
Chase Utley's and Domonic Brown's absences deplete this team drastically. Castillo adds very little over Wilson Valdez, but he was a smart addition because that move shows Phillies fans good faith in the pursuit of a championship. If you still think that NL East title is a sure thing, though, you're missing a lot of things. The Braves are a real threat.
Pittsburgh Pirates
22 of 30
1. Jose Tabata, LF
2. Neil Walker, 2B
3. Andrew McCutchen, CF
4. Pedro Alvarez, 3B
5. Lyle Overbay, 1B
6. Garrett Jones, RF
7. Chris Snyder, C
8. Ronny Cedeno, SS
9. Paul Maholm, SP
My favorite Pirates addition this winter will not play April 1, because he is a platoon player only, and the Cubs will trot out Ryan Dempster against the Pirates. Matt Diaz can hit the snot out of southpaw pitching, so he will make an impact when the team faces those hurlers. In the meantime, McCutchen continues on his path to stardom, and Cedeno continues on his path to a free agency he will find highly disappointing.
St. Louis Cardinals
23 of 30
1. Skip Schumaker, 2B
2. Colby Rasmus, CF
3. Albert Pujols, 1B
4. Matt Holliday, LF
5. Lance Berkman, RF
6. David Freese, 3B
7. Yadier Molina, C
8. Chris Carpenter, SP
9. Ryan Theriot, SS
Tony La Russa's wacky second leadoff hitter theory always seems to work alright, and he may have its ideal executor in singles-happy Ryan Theriot batting out of the ninth slot. Albert Pujols is, you know, okay I guess, and Holliday and Rasmus sandwich him nicely. The big problems are aging Berkman, fragile Freese and anemic Schumaker. Not to mention the loss of Wainwright, who could hit really well in addition to being a true ace.
San Diego Padres
24 of 30
1. Will Venable, RF
2. Jason Bartlett, SS
3. Orlando Hudson, 2B
4. Ryan Ludwick, LF
5. Brad Hawpe, 1B
6. Chase Headley, 3B
7. Cameron Maybin, CF
8. Nick Hundley, C
9. Mat Latos, SP
Remember my comment on DeJesus as a third hitter in Oakland? It goes double for Hudson in San Diego. This lineup lacks any thunderous bat. That's why they keep trying to give Kyle Blanks a job. Since Blanks has thus far refused, though, the team really ought to move Headley up in the lineup. He fits better as a third hitter than does Hudson.
San Francisco Giants
25 of 30
1. Andres Torres, CF
2. Freddy Sanchez, 2B
3. Aubrey Huff, 1B
4. Buster Posey, C
5. Cody Ross, RF
6. Pat Burrell, LF
7. Miguel Tejada, SS
8. Pablo Sandoval, 3B
9. Tim Lincecum, SP
Sandoval needs to hit well enough to work his way up the lineup hierarchy for this team to play into October again. Huff, Burrell and Ross were scrap-heap successes in 2010, but their futures are far from certain. Depth helps, and Brandon Belt (among others) can provide that. Still, this lineup did itself no favors by trading in Juan Uribe for Miguel Tejada over the offseason.
Seattle Mariners
26 of 30
1. Ichiro Suzuki, RF
2. Chone Figgins, 3B
3. Milton Bradley, LF
4. Jack Cust, DH
5. Justin Smoak, 1B
6. Franklin Gutierrez, CF
7. Miguel Olivo, C
8. Jack Wilson, SS
9. Brendan Ryan, 2B
SP: Felix Hernandez
It was good to see the Mariners trade for Brendan Ryan this year, because you know what the Seattle Mariners really needed this winter? A great-glove, no-hit shortstop. They had enough bats. It was about time they got their house in order in terms of fielding.
The Mariners should flip-flop Wilson and Ryan defensively and Figgins and Ichiro in the lineup, but nothing matters unless and until they improve by either adding slugging offensive players or seeing major improvements from Smoak and/or Gutierrez.
Tampa Bay Rays
27 of 30
1. John Jaso, C
2. Johnny Damon, LF
3. Evan Longoria, 3B
4. Manny Ramirez, DH
5. Ben Zobrist, RF
6. B.J. Upton, CF
7. Dan Johnson, 1B
8. Sean Rodriguez, 2B
9. Reid Brignac, SS
SP: David Price, SP
The Rays are going to be much, much better than anyone thinks, even in the post-Carl Crawford, post-Carlos Pena era.
Here's how much the world has shifted its gaze from the Rays: Our Getty Images database here at Bleacher Report returns no game-action photos of the Rays in Grapefruit League play.
B.J. Upton needs to have a year worthy of a return to the top of the order if the Rays are going to post photogenic results in the AL East. Other key players will be Zobrist, who got unlucky last year but is a good hitter, and Ramirez, who will still reach base but must hit for modest power.
Texas Rangers
28 of 30
1. Ian Kinsler, 2B
2. Elvis Andrus, SS
3. Josh Hamilton, LF
4. Nelson Cruz, RF
5. Adrian Beltre, 3B
6. Michael Young, DH
7. Mike Napoli, 1B
8. Yorvit Torrealba, C
9. Julio Borbon, CF
SP: C.J. Wilson
Napoli will slot in on Opening Day against southpaw Jon Lester, with Mitch Moreland relegated to the bench temporarily. More frequently, Napoli will try to glean playing time at catcher or DH while Moreland patrols first. Beltre is still working his way back to full health but should have extra motivation to smack around the Red Sox, whom he left this winter.
Toronto Blue Jays
29 of 30
1. Rajai Davis, CF
2. Yunel Escobar, SS
3. Jose Bautista, 3B
4. Adam Lind, 1B
5. Aaron Hill, 2B
6. Travis Snider, RF
7. Juan Rivera, LF
8. Edwin Encarnacion, DH
9. J.P. Arencibia, C
SP: Ricky Romero
Hill had bad luck but also tried too hard to emulate his 36-homer 2009 season last year, leading to a .205 average. Lind struggled. Snider struggled. Escobar REALLY struggled, and his reputation as an iffy makeup guy got even worse. Overall, this is a team with the potential to hit 225-plus home runs again this year, but they will not morph into a patient or athletic lineup.
Washington Nationals
30 of 30
1. Roger Bernadina, CF
2. Ian Desmond, SS
3. Jayson Werth, RF
4. Ryan Zimmerman, 3B
5. Adam LaRoche, 1B
6. Michael Morse, LF
7. Danny Espinosa, 2B
8. Ivan Rodriguez, C
9. Livan Hernandez, SP
Of all the player entrances to spring camps, Bernadina's may have been the most profitable. He was in line to battle for a fourth outfield spot, but now looks like the starting center fielder and leadoff hitter because he showed up ripped out of his mind and has played well that way during the Grapefruit League.
Meanwhile, other young guys getting the reins in full-time duty for the first time (namely Morse, Espinosa and Desmond) need to prove themselves. Werth, Zimmerman and LaRoche make up a fine heart of the order.

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