Rafael Nadal Reveals a Vulnerability as He Advances at Indian Wells

I was surprised to see Rafael Nadal struggle at all in his last two matches with Somdev Dev Varman and Ivo Karlovic at the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells, California. Nadal, who had recently taken time off due to an injury, had arrived at the tournament in top physical condition, so I expected him to play superbly, as usual.

Instead, Nadal had to work unexpectedly hard to defeat Dev Varman and Karlovic, and he reminded me of what I believe is his Achilles' heel: You must keep Nadal out of his rhythm.  Avoid long rallies.  Go for winners.  Keep him guessing. 

Nadal loves getting into a comfort zone on the baseline and exchanging groundstrokes until he seizes a moment to put his weight into a stroke and belt it away from his opponent.  Often, his opponent barely returns that ball and Nadal puts the next shot away.  The more comfortable Nadal becomes, the more he gets into a rhythm and the better his choices and timing seem to grow for going on the offensive.

Yet, against Dev Varman and Karlovic, Nadal was unable to get into his rhythm as consistently as usual.  Dev Varman and Karolovic each served exceptionally well against Nadal, especially the 6'10" Karlovic, who served many aces or barely hittable serves.  But, it wasn't just the dominant serves.  I noticed that Dev Varman and Karlovic each tried to be aggressive in their shotmaking early in the point, and sometimes this strategy worked.  Unfortunately, neither player has an impressive enough ground game to sustain this approach without making unforced errors of their own.  Nadal defeated Dev Varman 7-5, 6-4, then, Karlovic, 5-7, 6-1, 7-6.

Nevertheless, I noticed that Nadal didn't seem as comfortable as I've often seen him in other matches, including mostly contests against superior players.  Facing the terrific serving of his opponents got Nadal a bit rattled, but when either hit the ball in an unexpected spot effectively it seemed to bother him more.  I get a sense that Nadal likes knowing where his opponent usually hits the ball OR likes forcing his opponent to hit he ball in the same area and with the same spin as much as possible. 

The only times in the past few years I've seen opponents taste success against Nadal is when they're either surprising him with their tactics or approach OR they're simply belting the ball to try for winners despite the higher risks of missing shots.  They figure their odds will still be higher with that approach than if they stay back on the baseline and try to out-rally Nadal.  That seems all but impossible.

I recall watching the young Ukranian, Alexandr Delgopolov, show some good flashes in the first set of a match against Nadal and I sensed it was due primarily to the unpredictability of his game.  

I vividly recall Nadal's semi-final match with Fernando Verdasco in the 2009 Australian Open.  I was struck by Verdasco's success that day in going for winners against Nadal.  He hit 95 winners in the five-set match, ultimately won by Nadal.  My impression is that Andy Murray has experienced a little success against Nadal partly due to Murray's ability to hit the ball back differently than his opponent expects at times. 

Then I think of Nadal's matches with Roger Federer in recent years and how much Nadal was able to take control of many rallies.  He kept hitting the ball deep to Fed's backhand and he often knew where Federer would return the ball.   Federer usually has made the mistake of getting lured into long rallies against Nadal, and that has cost him a number of matches.  In late 2010 I watched a rare Federer victory over Nadal in the end-of-the-year Master's event.  It was not a coincidence that Federer, following coach Paul Annacone's advice, was far more aggressive in that match.

If Dev Varman and Karlovic can keep Nadal off balance, why can't Novak Djokovic?  Djokovic seems to love hitting the ball hard, but lately while he's been on fire he's also placed the ball well and served fantastically.  If he faces Nadal in the finals at Indian Wells, Djokovic ought to keep Nadal guessing a bit—the same way Dev Varman and Karlovic did in the past few days.

I'd love to see Federer beat Nadal by using his recent, more aggressive tactics, but Fed doesn't seem to be playing well enough now to get past Djokovic in the semifinals—if, in fact, they meet there.

If Nadal is allowed to get in his rhythm, he's still the best in the world, in my view.