Newton, Peterson, Miller? Who Will the Buffalo Bills Target in the NFL Draft?
While the 2011 NFL season may be in question, there is one thing that is for certain: the NFL draft must go on. One team in particular that will need a strong draft to rise from the ashes is the Buffalo Bills.
The Bills haven't made the playoffs since 1999 and the once-proud franchise has become a punchline across the league. There is no shortage of possibilities for who the Bills will take with the third overall pick as their roster has more holes than a golf course.
No matter who they take, though, the Bills had better make it count this time. Here are the top ten most likely picks for the Bills at no. 3.
10. Tyron Smith, OT, USC
1 of 10
Why they might:
The Bills have lacked an elite blindside protector since dealing Pro Bowler Jason Peters to Philadelphia two years ago. Project tackle Demetrius Bell made great strides last season after a nightmarish 2009 that saw a slew of procedure and holding penalties. Bell might project better to the right side, however, allowing Smith to slide over to left tackle.
Why they won't:
The third pick is simply too early for Smith. Trading down would certainly be an option, but with so many high-impact players available at the third slot, Buddy Nix and co. would likely be crucified by the Bills' fan base. Although the tackle position isn't particularly star-laden in this draft, there are about four or five solid prospects (Nate Solder, Gabe Carimi, etc.) who could possibly be had with the second pick in the second round if the Bills choose to go that route.
9. A.J. Green, WR, Georgia
2 of 10
Why they might:
Lee Evans is due to make over $8 million in 2011, and while it isn't likely, it's certainly possible that the Bills could decide to trade him. Even if they don't, Evans' numbers have slipped in recent years, and while a lot of that is due to poor quarterback play, he has had a penchant for being invisible in some games. Steve Johnson took over the role of no. 1 receiver from Evans last season, and the more Evans' role continues to diminish, the worse his contract looks. On top of that, Green is a Larry Fitzgerald-esque talent who would give the Bills two big-bodied receivers to make big plays downfield and in the red zone.
Why they won't:
The Bills just have too many other needs. When you have needs at at least five or six positions as the Bills do, it's tough to just take the best player available, which is something the Bills did last year by selecting C.J. Spiller despite having plenty of running back depth. Although Evans may be in decline, he's still a viable deep threat. Also, if Johnson builds on his breakout 2010 season, he'll be due for a significant pay raise soon enough. This would involve having big money wrapped up in three receivers, which is something the Bills' organization is unlikely to do.
8. Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri
3 of 10
Why they might:
Not since Jim Kelly retired following the 1996 season have the Bills possessed an elite signal caller. Gabbert possesses a huge arm and was able to improve upon his previously spotty accuracy in his junior year at Mizzou. At 6' 5” 235 lbs., Gabbert has the prototypical size that scouts look for out of a quarterback. Once Andrew Luck decided to stay at Stanford, Gabbert's stock spiked dramatically as he was labeled the consensus top prospect at his position.
Why they won't:
For starters, I expect that Gabbert will be off the board. After Nick Fairley's so-so combine, there are rumblings out of Carolina that they're interested in taking a quarterback. With a new head coach in place, I can definitely see the Panthers picking a new face of the franchise to boot.
Even if Gabbert were to be available, however, I don't think he would be on the Bills' radar. There have been some questions regarding Gabbert's character and whether he has the work ethic necessary to thrive in the NFL. Also, Gabbert wouldn't seem to be a good fit in Chan Gailey's offense. Gailey has had success with more mobile quarterbacks such as Kordell Stewart, Tyler Thigpen and Ryan Fitzpatrick running predominantly out of the shotgun.
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7. Da'Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson
4 of 10
Why they might:
The Bills are in desperate need of a pass rusher, and Bowers is just that. Many experts have compared the 6'3” 280 lb. Bowers to perennial Pro-Bowler Julius Peppers. In a division that has been owned by Tom Brady and the New England Patriots for the better part of the past decade, the key to success is clearly getting to the quarterback. When teams like the Jets in last year's playoffs and the Giants in Super Bowl 42 got to Brady, there were definite chinks in the Patriots' armor.
Why they won't:
He simply wouldn't fit in a 3-4 defense. At his size, it would likely be difficult for Bowers to go from a down lineman to a rush linebacker. He certainly has the athletic ability necessary to make the switch, but it might be a comfort level issue. The Bills attempted the same with Aaron Maybin and he's been a complete non-factor to this point in his career. This would be a matter of trying to make a square peg fit in a round hole.
6. Robert Quinn, DE/LB, North Carolina
5 of 10
Why they might:
Quinn, unlike Bowers, is projected to be able to convert to a 3-4 rush linebacker. The Bills are incredibly thin at outside linebacker which is completely unacceptable for a 3-4 defense. Chris Kelsay simply doesn't have the ability to the play the position and nobody knows what to expect out of Shawne Merriman. Arthur Moats was the lone bright spot outside last season, but he still requires plenty of seasoning before he can become a reliable starter and contributor. Quinn's selection would undoubtedly satisfy a major need.
Why they won't:
Quinn missed the entire 2010 season after being ruled ineligible by the NCAA for accepting improper benefits. This is less of a character issue than it is an issue of rust. Quinn was certainly dominant in 2009, but with a full year away from the field, there are absolutely some question marks surrounding him. I'm sure everyone remembers the struggles endured by Mike Williams and Maurice Clarett after missing a full season each before being drafted. I'm not saying the same will happen to Quinn, but it's a significant red flag to consider.
5. Marcell Dareus, DL, Alabama
6 of 10
Why they might:
Versatility. Dareus would be a fantastic fit on any 3-4 defensive line, but specifically a Bills' line that was bit by the injury bug often last season and lacks depth at defensive end. If Dwan Edwards can return from a season-ending hamstring injury he should lock down one end, but the other is up for grabs. At 319 lbs., Dareus also has the ability to play nose tackle, although Kyle Williams had a Pro Bowl season there in 2010. Williams' size might be a better fit for the end, however, and it would be extremely beneficial for the Bills to be able to mix and match pieces on the line.
Why they won't:
After outperforming Nick Fairley at the combine, it's looking more and more like Dareus has ascended to the top of the defensive lineman rankings. Because of this, Denver is a likely landing spot at pick number two. On top of that, the third pick might be a bit high for a 3-4 defensive end should Dareus stay there at the professional level. A 3-4 defensive end is primarily involved with stopping the run and engaging blockers to allow the linebacking corps to make tackles as well. Faced with a similar situation 2009, the Chiefs selected Tyson Jackson with the third pick, and while he fills a role, he hasn't made the type of impact as a 3-4 end that a top-three pick should make.
4. Nick Fairley, DL, Auburn
7 of 10
Why they might:
Anybody who watched the National Championship game had to be impressed with Fairley as he was in the backfield all night and gave Oregon's spread offense fits en route to Defensive Player of the Game honors. After that performance, Fairley was tabbed as the consensus top player among most every draft expert. The Bills really lack playmakers on defense and Fairley proved his ability blow up plays before they started last season. Outside of Kyle Williams, that is a quality that Buffalo's defensive line is missing.
The Bills were dreadful at both stopping the run and pressuring the quarterback last season, and Fairley is able to provide help in both areas.
Why they won't:
For starters—according to most experts—Fairley is better suited as a penetrating defensive tackle than a two-gap defensive end. He would likely have the capacity to play at 3-4 end, but his skills wouldn't be on display as evidently.
Secondly, and perhaps more importantly, it's possible that Fairley could be categorized as a one-year wonder. He played just two seasons at Auburn, only one of which was productive. Although he may just be a late bloomer, Nix and Gailey have each commented on the fact that they like players who have had sustained success at the collegiate level.
3. Von Miller, OLB, Texas A&M
8 of 10
Why they might:
Miller is the most likely Bills' selection to this point. Unlike the previous pass rushers on this list, there is no question that Miller fits as a 3-4 rush linebacker. Miller's stock has skyrocketed throughout the off-season, beginning with a fantastic Senior Bowl and culminating with lights-out performances at the combine and his pro day. Miller ran a ridiculous 4.46 40 and leaped 37 inches.
As mentioned before, Buffalo has struggled to get to the quarterback, and Miller's speed and wide array of moves would be integral in disrupting the timing of opposing offenses.
Why they won't:
While there are few concrete reasons why the Bills wouldn't take Miller, I think that his size may perceived as an issue. While many smaller players including Elvis Dumervil and Robert Mathis have shown that they can get to the quarterback consistently, Miller's 246 lb. frame will force him to rely on speed rather than power to get to the quarterback.
Because of this, it's possible that the league's more athletic left tackles could take him out of games. Also, the Bills have a pretty poor track record when it comes to drafting pass rushers over the past few seasons with Aaron Maybin, Chris Ellis and John McCargo all looking like busts. Past failures shouldn't deter Buddy Nix and Co., however.
2. Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU
9 of 10
Why they might:
Peterson looks to be the safest and most NFL-ready player in the draft. Not only is he huge for a corner at 6'0” 219 lbs., but he also ran a blazing 4.32 40 at the combine. The Bills haven't had a surefire hit in the first round since Lee Evans in 2004, so taking the safe route shouldn't be understated.
Also, as important as rushing the passer is in today's pass-heavy NFL, it may be equally as important to cut the field in half with a shutdown corner. The Jets have made the concept en vogue in a way due to the ability of Darrelle Revis to render elite wide receivers useless on a regular basis.
Peterson's coverage ability would improve the Bills' pass rush by default as it would force opposing quarterbacks to hang onto the ball longer as well.
Why they won't:
Although Peterson may be the most talented player in the draft, cornerback just isn't a pressing need for Buffalo. Although Terrence McGee has battled injuries over the past couple seasons, he's still a very capable corner when healthy. Also, Leodis McKelvin showed a lot of improvement last season and seems to be growing into a reliable starter. Add Drayton Florence and Reggie Corner to the mix, and the Bills may be deeper at corner than any other position.
The Bills do have a history of drafting corners in the first round, however (McKelvin, Nate Clements, Antoine Winfield) so it certainly isn't out of the question that they would do it again.
1. Cam Newton, QB, Auburn
10 of 10
Why they might:
Ryan Fitzpatrick did a nice job for the Bills last season, but let's face it, he isn't a franchise quarterback. The Bills haven't had one of those in quite some time, and it's about time they got one. Cam Newton is really unlike any player to ever don a Bills' uniform, but his rare talent in something the the Bills' organization is dying for. At this point, the fans have little to look forward to. Sure, a number of games were entertaining last year, but looking at the roster, there just isn't enough talent there.
Newton would make the Bills relevant on a national scale. Newton would make plays that few other players are capable of. Perhaps most importantly, from a financial standpoint, Newton would sell tickets and give fans something to believe in. And from a football perspective, Newton is a perfect fit for Gailey's offense. He's extremely comfortable operating in the shotgun and getting outside the pocket, and the Bills would have the weapons necessary to run some college-style spread offense sets with both Newton and Spiller in the fold.
Why they won't:
While I believe the Bills will take Newton, there has been plenty of speculation that Carolina is interested in taking Newton first overall. Although it's possible, I find that hard to believe for a few reasons. Most experts rank Newton as the second or third best quarterback in the draft and many question whether he should even be a first-round pick.
Having the first pick puts a lot of pressure on the Panthers by default, and they have to be sure that they're getting a Pro-Bowl caliber player with that pick. Also, even though he performed poorly last season, Jimmy Clausen was a second-round pick in 2009. I doubt that the Panthers would be willing to give up on him so quickly, especially because much of the reason for his struggles was a complete lack of weapons on offense. I expect Newton to be there for Buffalo: they just have to pull the trigger.
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