UFC 128 Fight Card: Shogun vs. Jones Main Card Breakdowns and Predictions
The Ultimate Fighting Championship brings a stacked card to the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey on Saturday night.
The main event features an anticipated light heavyweight championship bout between champion Mauricio "Shogun" Rua and challenger Jon "Bones" Jones.
Coming off a major knee surgery, Shogun hopes to put forth his first successful UFC title defense since dethroning Lyoto Machida in May 2010.
Jones, who was offered this shot after his injured teammate Rashad Evans was forced to bow out, will try to make the most of a golden opportunity and take his place atop the light heavyweight division.
In the co-main event, Urijah Faber will make his long-awaited UFC debut against Eddie Wineland. A win for Faber puts him in great position to challenge Dominick Cruz for the UFC Bantamweight Title.
The time has come once again for you to feast on some manly induced knowledge in preparation for the upcoming fights. Snatch a cold beverage out of the fridge and get comfortable. It's breakdown time.
As always, I encourage you to read my breakdowns to see why I made the predictions that I made. At the end of the breakdowns, I will have my official picks listed. Thanks for reading. Enjoy the fights!
(SportsHaze.com Original)
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Mauricio “Shogun” Rua vs. Jon Jones
1 of 6
Key Victories
Shogun (Quinton Jackson, Lyoto Machida, Chuck Liddell, Alistair Overeem, Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, Ricardo Arona, Kevin Randleman, Mark Coleman, Kazuhiro Nakamura)
Jones (Ryan Bader, Brandon Vera, Vladimir Matyushenko, Stephan Bonnar)
Forecast
Since his entry into the UFC in August 2008, Jon Jones has been the subject of hype amongst the MMA community.
His unorthodox skills and high, technical I.Q. has aided him in mopping up the floor with some of MMA's most respected veterans.
The time has finally come to witness the ceiling of Jones' otherworldly abilities. He'll have a mountain to climb when he takes on top ranked light heavyweight and UFC Champion Mauricio "Shogun" Rua.
Born in Curitiba, Brazil, Shogun was a member of the famous Chute Boxe academy. There he trained alongside MMA greats Anderson Silva and Wanderlei Silva. He left the gym in 2008 and founded Universidade da luta with his brother Murilo "Ninja" Rua.
Despite earning 16 knockouts in his MMA career, Shogun is exceptionally deadly on the ground. He is a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu (BJJ) and the 2005 Pride Middleweight Grand Prix Champion. At UFC 113, he avenged a controversial loss and knocked out Lyoto Machida in the first round to become the new UFC Light Heavyweight Champion.
Fighting out of Albuquerque, New Mexico, Jones trains at Jackson's MMA alongside various world class fighters including Georges St. Pierre, Rashad Evans and Nate Marquardt. His style is a mix of Muay Thai, Greco-Roman Wrestling, and Gaidojutsu. As a wrestler at Iowa Central Community College, he was a NJCAA Junior Collegiate Champion and an All-American in 2006.
At 84.5 inches long, Jones has the longest reach in UFC history. The majority of his wins have come by knockout (seven). At UFC 126, he earned a second round submission win after dominating "TUF" Season 8 winner Ryan Bader.
Keys to Victory
Unless he has Jones hurt or backpedaling, Shogun needs to avoid the clinch. This is an odd request for Shogun, who is one of the most devastating Muay Thai artists in the sport. Jones has shown an affinity for roughing opponents up in the clinch and securing takedowns. Shogun may have the better strikes, but Jones is a far better grappler from the clinch position.
On the feet, Shogun needs to mix things up with kicks and punches to keep Jones guessing. He has to avoid telegraphing or making himself predictable by only throwing kicks. Jones will be looking to use his long arms to snatch a leg and turn kicks into takedowns.
The entire fight will come down to how well Shogun performs off his back. Jones' long arms could leave him open to various submissions on the ground, but Shogun can't allow himself to become obsessed with searching for submissions. Judges generally favor the fighter on top. If he struggles to setup submissions, Shogun has to find a way to scramble back to his feet.
Jones is talented in every facet of the game, but he needs to avoid taking unnecessary risks against Shogun on the feet. Shogun's blend of kicks and punches is a technical masterpiece. Jones needs to stick with his strengths and vary up his attack with striking and takedowns.
Shogun doesn't have great takedown defense, but his BJJ more than makes up for that minor technical deficiency. The majority of the takedowns ever secured on Shogun were invited. Jones will have his opportunities to play in the champ's guard, but he'll have to be smart and avoid being careless in the ground transitions.
Former UFC Heavyweight Champion Kevin Randleman could be a contortionist after the pretzel-like positions Shogun put his knee through at Pride 32.
Prediction
Stylistically, this is the most compelling bout so far this year. It is also the most difficult to predict. With seven UFC bouts under his belt, Jones is still an enigma in the light heavyweight division. Various phases of his game are still murky to most fans. How good is his standup? Does he have the ground chops to thwart the advancements of a BJJ black belt? Can he go five rounds?
This fight will likely be won or lost on the ground, and Shogun's lackluster takedown defense could be his undoing. From his back, the pressure will be on Shogun to make something happen. If he can't find a submission, he will be fighting an uphill battle against the stronger wrestler. Ryan Bader, a two-time NCAA Division I All-American wrestler, was completely shut down by Jones' top game.
Look for Jones to feel things out on the feet before securing an early takedown. Pay-Per-View fans may be disappointed when Jones' strong top control and lethal elbows nets the late first round stoppage.
Urijah Faber vs. Eddie Wineland
2 of 6
Key Victories
Faber (Dominick Cruz, Bibiano Fernandes, Jens Pulver, Takeya Mizugaki, Raphael Assuncao, Charles Bennett, Jeff Curran)
Wineland (Antonio Banuelos, George Roop, Manny Tapia)
Forecast
Casual fans may not be too familiar with the featherweight and bantamweight divisions, but the vast majority knows at least one name –– Urijah Faber.
For years, Faber has excelled in his role as the face of the WEC. Now, "The California Kid" has finally arrived at the big show. He debuts against heavy-handed slugger Eddie Wineland in a bout with possible title implications.
Fighting out of Sacramento, California, Faber trains with Joseph Benavidez and Chad Mendes at Team Alpha Male. In college wrestling, he was a two time NCAA Division I qualifier at the University of California at Davis. His style consists of wrestling, kickboxing, and BJJ (purple belt).
A former WEC Featherweight Champion, Faber holds the record for most consecutive title defenses in the WEC (five). He made his Bantamweight debut at WEC 52, where he earned a first round submission victory over top ten ranked opponent Takeya Mizugaki.
Wineland fights out of Chesterton, Indiana. He trains at Duneland Vale Tudo and New Breed Jiu-Jitsu. His style includes wrestling and boxing. In his last two fights against Ken Stone and Will Campuzano, Wineland earned bonuses for "Knockout of the Night." He was the first ever WEC Bantamweight Champion.
Keys to Victory
While Faber is a technical fighter, he has a tendency to get reckless at times. This is what fans love about him. Faber's aggressive nature and berserker-like pace may serve as eye candy for enthused fans, but it also leaves him open to dangerous counters.
If Faber gets careless on the feet, Wineland has more than enough power to put him away. Faber has to be smart in the exchanges. He needs to use his striking to setup takedowns. Wineland is a competent grappler, but Faber should enjoy a significant advantage on the ground, where he can use his top control and ground-and-pound to setup submissions.
Faber isn't a slouch in the power department either, and Wineland will have to show better standup defense than he has in the past. A solid chin can only get you so far. Wineland often gambles during fights by keeping his hands low and leaving his chin unprotected. He needs to cover up to avoid eating too many unnecessary punches.
When it comes to aggression, Faber is like a Ritalin-deprived toddler on an enduring sugar binge. Wineland needs to pace himself and utilize good footwork and angles to pick apart Faber's offensive assault. He also has to watch out for takedowns. As long as this battle stays upright in the center, Wineland will be in a great position to pull off the upset.
Prediction
UFC 128 may be in Newark, New Jersey, but fans will be singing "California Love" when this bout is over. Wineland will get caught with his neck exposed early, and Faber will teach him a lesson in Submissions 101 by latching on the guillotine finish in the first round.
Jim Miller vs. Kamal Shalorus
3 of 6
Key Victories
Miller (Mac Danzig, Gleison Tibau, Mark Bocek, Matt Wiman, Charles Oliveira, Duane Ludwig, Bart Palaszewski, David Baron)
Shalorus (Bart Palaszewski)
Forecast
Serving as a stand-in for Jake Gyllenhaal, "The Prince of Persia" Kamal Shalorus is set to make his UFC debut against neglected contender, Jim Miller.
Depending on the outcome of Anthony Pettis-Clay Guida in June, a win for Miller could put him over as the next contender for the lightweight title.
Fighting out of Whippany, New Jersey, Miller trains as AMA Fight Club with his brother Dan Miller, Joe Soto, Charlie Brenneman, and Ricardo Romero. Along with a black belt in BJJ, he is a former NCAA Division I Wrestler at Virginia Tech.
With a 19-2 professional record, Miller's only two losses have come to top lightweights Frankie Edgar and Gray Maynard. At UFC 124, he made quick work of promising prospect, Charles Oliveira.
Born in Ahmadabad, Ardabil, Iran, Shalorus is a freestyle wrestler, catch wrestler, and boxer. He was a member of Great Britain's Olympic wrestling team. His grappling experience also carries over into the world of ADCC (Abu Dhabi Combat Club), where he earned a victory over former Dream Lightweight Champion Joachim Hansen.
Shalorus is currently undefeated as a professional fighter. At WEC 53, he took a split decision win over Bart Palaszewski.
Keys to Victory
Shalorus' brute strength and Olympic level wrestling skills make him a tough match-up for Miller, who often relies on dragging his opponents to the floor and controlling from top. If Miller has any hope of putting Shalorus on his back, he'll have to do a good job of using his striking and feints to disguise takedown attempts.
Lackluster stamina is the price Shalorus pays for his jacked physique. His cardio has caused him to fade late in tough bouts that go the distance. Miller needs to use angles and a lot of footwork to make the slower Shalorus work.
Shalorus has to slow the pace down and make Miller fight his fight. He doesn't have the cardio to go three hard rounds with a veteran like Miller, but he can slow the fight down by closing the distance and working Miller against the cage. Miller is a solid wrestler and takedowns won't come easy in the open.
Against the cage, Shalorus will have the opportunity to catch his breath, while maintaining a dominant position and peppering Miller with short strikes. Even though takedowns will be hard to come by, Shalorus can't allow himself to become one-dimensional by relying too much on his boxing, which has hurt him in past bouts.
It'll take a combination of striking and wrestling to thwart a talented lightweight like Miller.
Prediction
If you're into betting, Shalorus would be a great pick-up as an underdog. He has the skills necessary to hand Miller his third loss, but the problem lies with his poor cardio and a tendency to overstay his welcome on the feet.
It will be a close fight throughout, but Miller will slowly pull away as the bout goes the distance. There won't be any Hollywood endings in this one, as "The Prince of Persia" falters, and Miller continues to prove his placement as one of the top lightweights in the world.
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Nate Marquardt vs. Dan Miller
4 of 6
Key Victories
Marquardt (Demian Maia, Martin Kampmann, Rousimar Palhares, Wilson Gouveia, Kazuo Misaki, Ivan Salaverry, Joe Doerksen, Jeremy Horn, Dean Lister)
Miller (Joe Doerksen, Jake Rosholt, Matt Horwich, John Salter, John Howard)
Forecast
Nate Marquardt has come across some serious roadblocks in his attempts at returning to the front of the contender's line. He hopes to get back to his winning ways when he takes on New Jersey native Dan Miller.
Fighting out of Denver, Colorado, Marquardt trains and teaches at Jackson's MMA, Grudge Training Center, and High Altitude Martial Arts. His training partners include Georges St. Pierre, Jon Jones, Rashad Evans, and Shane Carwin. Along with a black belt in BJJ, Marquardt also has a second degree black belt in JuJutsu.
He is a former three-time King of Pancrase. At UFC 122, he lost a lopsided unanimous decision to top middleweight contender Yushin Okami.
Born in Sparta, New Jersey, Miller is the older brother of UFC lightweight contender Jim Miller. Along with his brother, he trains at AMA Fight Club with Joe Soto, Charlie Brenneman, and Ricardo Romero. He is a black belt in BJJ under Renzo Gracie student Jamie Cruz.
At UFC 124, Miller picked up his second consecutive victory with a split decision win over Joe Doerksen.
Keys to Victory
This isn't an attempt to take away from Okami's brilliant performance at UFC 122, but Marquardt looked like a zombie in that fight. He needs to wake up and show more urgency against Miller. The boxing advantage will definitely favor Marquardt in this bout. He has to best the exchanges and keep a low base to defend takedowns.
The grappling advantage also tips in Marquardt's favor. He can integrate takedowns in his offense to mix things up, but he shouldn't underestimate Miller's submission game, especially his guillotine choke.
One of Marquardt's main weaknesses is his inability to fight on his heels. Against Okami and Chael Sonnen, he was constantly pressured, and neither opponent gave him a chance to setup his offense.
Miller has to be the aggressor in this fight. He needs to use his striking to keep Marquardt backpedaling and look to setup takedowns. When taken down and controlled, Marquardt has a tendency to shut down and idle from his back.
In the standup exchanges, Miller has to show good boxing defense to avoid getting cracked by Marquardt's straight right hand.
Prediction
Dan Miller is a solid middleweight, but he hasn't managed to find success against the elite of the division. Marquardt is still one of the best middleweights in the world, and he'll prove it on Saturday when he routs Miller for the unanimous decision.
Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic vs. Brendan Schaub
5 of 6
Key Victories
Cro Cop (Josh Barnett, Wanderlei Silva, Aleksander Emelianenko, Igor Vovchanchyn, Heath Herring, Kazuyuki Fujita, Kazushi Sakuraba, Kevin Randleman, Mark Coleman, Ikuhisa Minowa, Pat Barry)
Schaub (Gabriel Gonzaga, Chris Tuchscherer)
Forecast
Legendary Pride superstar, Mirko Cro Cop, hopes to rebound from one of the most forgettable UFC main events in history when he faces explosive "TUF" 10 standout Brendan Schaub.
Born in Vinkovci, Croatia, Cro Cop is a former K-1 star and the 2006 Pride Open-Weight Grand Prix Champion. He trains in Amsterdam, Holland at Vos Gym, which is known for producing world class kickboxers like Ivan Hippolyte, Remy Bonjasky, and Ernesto Hoost.
In 27 wins, Cro Cop has finished 20 bouts by knockout. He was on the receiving end of a KO loss at UFC 119, where he was stopped in the third round by former heavyweight champion Frank Mir.
Brendan Schaub was born in Aurora, Colorado. He trains at Jackson's MMA and Grudge Training Center with Rashad Evans, Nate Marquardt, and Shane Carwin. A former professional football player, Schaub is naturally explosive and continues to improve on all levels.
He made it to the finals of "TUF" Season 10, where he was crushed in the first round by Roy Nelson. At UFC 121, Schaub picked up a huge unanimous decision victory over former heavyweight contender, Gabriel Gonzaga.
Keys to Victory
The biggest survival tip for Cro Cop in this bout is avoiding wild exchanges. Schaub is dangerous on the feet, and Cro Cop doesn't have the chin or power to survive a slugfest. He needs to stay on the outside and frustrate Schaub with kicks. When Schaub gets impatient and charges forward, Cro Cop should look for openings and counter with his boxing.
The high kick is always a great tool at Cro Cop's disposal, but he has to do a better job of setting it up. Instead of telegraphing high kick after high kick, he needs to open up more with his boxing and kicks to the body to setup the morbid strike.
Schaub needs to be aggressive. If he gives Cro Cop room to breathe, he'll get picked apart all night with leg kicks and occasional punches. He needs to stay in Cro Cop's face and make him counter. Cro Cop may not be in vintage form, but he still presents a viable threat on the feet. Schaub needs to use good defense to avoid eating too many punches.
Cro Cop doesn't utilize a lot of footwork during his fights. Schaub should be able to explode in and out of range with his offense before Cro Cop lands anything threatening. He can also rely on takedowns if he finds himself losing the standup exchanges.
Prediction
The days of huddling over old Pride DVDs and hoping Cro Cop returns to form are over. The soft-spoken, headhunting warrior from the past is dead and gone. It seems like Cro Cop would much rather play patty cake with his opponents and fans these days.
As always, fans hope to see a vintage performance from the Croatian, but Schaub will play spoiler with a vicious first round KO stoppage.
Official Picks
6 of 6
Jon Jones by Round 1 TKO Stoppage
Urijah Faber by Round 1 Submission (Guillotine Choke)
Jim Miller by Split Decision
Nate Marquardt by Unanimous Decision
Brendan Schaub by Round 1 KO
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