Fantasy Baseball Top 20 Prospects for 2011, Nos. 1-10

Eric StashinMar 16, 2011

If you are looking for the likes of Mike Trout or Bryce Harper, you aren’t going to find them here. This list is geared towards 2011, and 2011 only.

Which prospects are going to make the biggest impact for fantasy owners this year?

We looked at Nos. 11-20 yesterday (click here to view), so today let’s take a look at the second half of my Top 20 (for the full Top 90, purchase the Rotoprofessor 2011 Draft Guide by clicking here).

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1) Jeremy Hellickson – Pitcher – Tampa Bay Rays

The trade of Matt Garza finally opened up a full-time rotation spot for Hellickson, vaulting him to the top of these rankings.

He was fantastic in 10 appearances (four starts) for the Rays in 2010, going undefeated in those four starts, with a 3.47 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 8.17 K/9.

Throughout his minor league career he showed a great strikeout rate (9.84 K/9) and elite control (2.13 BB/9).

While he does play in the toughest division in baseball, there is little reason to think that he won’t be successful in 2011.

2) Mike Moustakas – Third Baseman – Kansas City Royals

The Royals plan to move slowly with their prospects, especially after the Alex Gordon debacle.

However, with 225 AB at Triple-A in 2010 (.293, 15 HR, 48 RBI in the Pacific Coast League) Moustakas is on the doorstep. All that stands in his way is Wilson Betemit, so you know it’s only a matter of time.

He will likely open the year at Triple-A, as the Royals postpone his arbitration clock, but he is the type of talent at a weak position that could dominate over the final four months.

He has 74 HR in 1,513 minor league AB (a HR every 20.4 AB) and should quickly emerge as a top 10 option at 3B.

3) Michael Pineda – Pitcher – Seattle Mariners

He may have seemed to have regressed after his promotion to Triple-A (4.76 ERA), but that is actually extremely misleading.

He posted a 10.97 K/9, 2.45 BB/9 and 1.14 WHIP. He suffered from a 66.8 percent strand rate and while his Double-A numbers may not be accurate either (2.22 ERA, 1.09 WHIP), it’s clear that he has all the talent in the world.

Pineda has the potential to break camp with the Mariners and form a dynamic one-two punch with Felix Hernandez for many years to come.

An innings limit will be a concern (he threw 139.1 innings in ’10), but if he opens the season in the Majors, he is one of the best pitching prospects to own in 2011.

4) Desmond Jennings – Outfielder – Tampa Bay Rays

Carl Crawford now calls Boston home, but lucky for Tampa Bay, they had a suitable replacement already in place.

He is not yet going to offer the power that Crawford has shown (Jennings hit three HR in 399 AB at Triple-A in ’10 and has never hit more than 11 in a season), but he offers the same type of electric, top of the order presence.

He’s had as many as 52 SB in a season and stole 171 bases in his minor league career, while only being caught 33 times. He’s not a perfect replacement, but he should make an instant impact for those in five-outfielder formats.

Of course, he'll now open the year at Triple-A (especially with Manny Ramirez and Johnny Damon on the roster), but it’s only a matter of time.

5) Domonic Brown – Outfielder – Philadelphia Phillies

He set a career high with 22 HR between Double-A, Triple-A and the Majors in ’10 and has stolen as many as 23 bases in a season.

Long-term, he should develop into a 20/20 option, but he may not get enough time to do better than 15/15 at best in ’11 (especially now that his hand injury has slowed his progression).

He appeared overmatched in his cup of coffee in 2010 (38.7 percent strikeout rate), so keep that in mind.

6) J.P. Arencibia – Catcher – Toronto Blue Jays

John Buck’s departure finally opens up regular playing time for Arencibia.

He has a ton of power, giving him the potential to be the next Mike Napoli and that's something he could realize immediately.

I know there is concern regarding his average, but his minor league career strikeout rate was at 22.0 percent and he was at 20.6 percent at Triple-A last season.

Seeing him hit .260-plus with 20-plus HR potential makes him more than worth targeting, especially in two-catcher formats.

He showed the type of splash he could make in his major league debut (four-for-five, two HR, three RBI, three R), so target him late in your drafts.

7) Craig Kimbrel – Pitcher – Atlanta Braves

Will it be Kimbrel or Jonny Venters taking over the closer duties with Billy Wagner hanging up his spikes?

Kimbrel was lights out in Triple-A (1.62 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 13.42 K/9) and even better once he was recalled (0.44 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 17.42 K/9).

Obviously, his strand rate is likely unsustainable (92.0 percent) and his control is an issue (6.97 BB/9 in ’10, 5.66 over his minor league career).

Still, with Venters being left-handed, Kimbrel could have the inside track to taking over the job. He has electric stuff and easily could be valued similarly to Carlos Marmol by the year’s end (considering the potential control issues).

8) Freddie Freeman – First Baseman – Atlanta Braves

The Braves have cleared the way for Freeman to open the year as the team’s first baseman.

He is not likely to provide prototypical 1B production, as he is not going to offer high power upside.

He hit 18 HR in 461 AB at Triple-A in ’10, and while he did hit .319, he was helped by a .351 BABIP.

Opportunity gives him value, but at a position where you are looking for a lot of power, he’s not likely the best answer.

9) Mike Minor – Pitcher – Atlanta Braves

He made nine appearances for the Braves in 2010 (eight starts), going three-for-two with a 5.98 ERA and 1.57 WHIP.

Of course, he also struggled with a .396 BABIP and 65.4 percent strand rate, while giving up three earned runs or less in each of his first four appearances (3.91 ERA).

It is easy to think that he tired in September and October (9.37 ERA), as the 2009 first round draft pick is not used to pitching that deep into the year. It was his first full professional season and there certainly is a learning curve.

The Braves are stocked with young arms, but Minor figures to get the first shot at the fifth spot in the rotation.

With his strikeout potential (he posted a K/9 of 9.52 in ’10), he could excel.

10) Danny Espinosa – Second Baseman – Washington Nationals

He has shown power (40 HR) and speed (56 SB) in the minor leagues and opens the year as the Nationals starting 2B.

He struggled to make contact in his 103 AB appearances in the Major Leagues, something that wasn’t all that surprising (he posted a 29.1 percent strikeout rate).

He struck out 25.7 percent of the time in the minor leagues over 1,019 AB, meaning that hitting for a usable average could be difficult.

While 20/20 potential makes him appear attractive, there’s a chance he doesn’t hit .250. Temper your expectations.

What are your thoughts on these rankings? Who do you think is too high? Are you targeting any of these players on draft day?

**** Make sure to order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here. ****

Make sure to check out our other Prospect Reports as we head towards 2011: