Cubs Have More Talent, but Dodgers Have Shot

If I had any guts, I'd pick the Dodgers.

Shoot, I can even make a case for a Dodgers sweep.

Game One: The hottest pitcher in the baseball—Dodgers righty Derek Lowe—silences the howling masses at Wrigley.

Game Two: Cubs ace Carlos Zambrano freaks out.

Game Three: Dodgers righty Hiroki Kuroda continues his late-season surge and season-long excellence at Dodger Stadium.

Mix in a few homers by Manny Ramirez and an electric revival by Rafael Furcal, and you can almost imagine the Cubs' 100-year drought quickly extending to 101.

Almost.

This series will be very competitive. The possibility of a Dodgers upset is quite real. But if Cubs catcher Geovany Soto (hand) and infielder/outfielder Mark DeRosa (calf) are reasonably healthy, the Cubs should avoid a first-round knockout by the NL West champion for the second straight year.

The Cubs won 97 games in the regular season, the Dodgers 84. The Cubs' run differential was a major-league best plus-184, the Dodgers' was a mere plus-52. The Cubs' rotation is deeper and their bullpen—while no sure thing of late—is in better shape.

A National League scout who followed the Cubs last week noted the vulnerability of their relievers, saying they weren't throwing enough strikes. But an AL scout, getting a rare look at the Cubs, was impressed by their parade of power arms. The Cubs' bullpen posted the best strikeout rate in the NL in the regular season—and there is no better weapon than the strikeout when trying to escape jams.

The Dodgers' bullpen was fifth in strikeout rate, but one of their top punchout artists, lefty Hong-Chi Kuo, is out for this series with an elbow injury. Another, righty Takashi Saito, is coming off his own elbow problem. Manager Joe Torre hasn't said whether Saito or Jonathon Broxton will be his closer. The addition of rookie lefty Clayton Kershaw in the middle innings should help.

The Cubs hold home-field advantage—a huge advantage, given the electricity at Wrigley these days. The Dodgers' best chance probably is to win in four games, but that's the problem. How the heck would they pull off such a feat?

Lowe, 5-1 with a 0.94 ERA in his last nine starts, easily could win Game One, but his opponent will be Cubs righty Ryan Dempster, who went 14-3 with a 2.86 ERA at Wrigley in the regular season. Zambrano vs. Chad Billingsley in Game Two amounts to a tossup, as does Kuroda vs. Rich Harden in Game Three.

(Harden's velocity was down in the early innings against the Mets last week, but the Cubs say he was "governing" himself against a potential playoff opponent—and Harden repeatedly has assured Cubs coaches that he has more to give).

Yet, even if the Dodgers take a 2-1 series lead, Cubs lefty Ted Lilly would rate a clear edge over either Dodgers righty Greg Maddux, 42, or Kershaw, 20, in a potential Game Four. Lilly took no-hitters into the seventh inning in two of his past three starts. His slider is as good as it has been all season.

Come Game Five—if there is a Game Five—the Cubs would have Zambrano available on normal rest to back up Dempster against Lowe. Dempster's even temperament and fierce competitiveness would make him the perfect choice for such a start. And at that point, the Wrigley crowd alone might will the Cubs to victory.

The Dodgers are a better team than they were pre-Ramirez, a better team than they were even two weeks ago, when Furcal and Jeff Kent were still injured. The differences in the offenses will be greatly reduced if Furcal provides a jolt for the Dodgers in the leadoff spot and the Cubs' Soto and/or DeRosa are in any way limited.

Call me gutless.

Cubs in Five.

This article originally published on FOXSports.com.

Read more of Ken's columns here.