NFL Draft 2011's Day-Two Dilemna: Should Patriots or Bills Trade Down?
After all the dust has settled from the opening day of the NFL Draft in New York City on Thursday evening, April 28th, all the NFL teams will go back to their big boards and war rooms to re-assess the talent that was not plucked in the first round.
Some teams met a big need on the first round, while others were taking a leap of faith by reaching for a specific player, recognizing that due to the depth at certain positions, specifically defensive line, would allow them to still have a quality player waiting for their turn on Day Two.
But, what if there is a sharp drop-off in talent within a specific position? Let's say for example that Martez Wilson is head and shoulders the best inside linebacker left on the board. Then there is a rather steep decline in the grades of every other inside linebacker that follows.What about at safety? If Rahim Moore is considered the premier safety, what is the drop-off for the remaining safeties after him?
These are the situations that NFL general managers will be assessing. One sure fire way to get Day Two off to a positive start is to trade up with the teams that own the first two picks of that round. The New England Patriots own pick 33 and the Buffalo Bills own pick 34. We will take a look at what is at stake for both teams.
What Players Are Supposed to Still Be Available on Day Two?
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Mike Mayock of the NFL Network has not come out with a complete Round One Mock Draft yet. He did put out a Top 10 Mock, but that was it. In the past week he did come up with something that was pretty interesting. He rated his top 32 players that were available in the draft. This didn't take in to consideration any specific team needs, just an overview on who he rated the best 32 players are.
1 - 5: Marcell Dareus, Von Miller, Patrick Peterson, A.J. Green, and Blaine Gabbert
6-10: Robert Quinn, Julio Jones, Nick Fairley, Prince Amukamara and Da'Quan Bowers.
11 - 15: Anthony Castonzo, J.J. Watt, Tyron Smith, Aldon Smith and Cam Jordan
16 - 20: Mark Ingram, Ryan Kerrigan, Muhammad Wilkerson, Gabe Carimi and Jake Locker
21 - 26: Cam Newton, Adrian Clayborn, Corey Liuget, Akeem Ayers, Nate Solder and Aaron Williams.
27 - 32: Cam Heyward, Mike Pouncey, Phil Taylor, Jimmy Smith, Stephen Paea and Kyle Rudolph.
Mayock did not think this is how they would be drafted in Round One. This just goes to show the depth of the talent pool that is available. For the sake of this article, we will look at what talent he didn't include in his top 32 players, as potential Day Two bargains.
Plenty of Talent Spills over to Day Two
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If we eliminate Mike Mayock's best 32 athletes from the big board, this slide will give you an overview of 66 other players that is still available to be considered for the draft on Day Two:
QB - Christian Ponder, Ryan Mallet, Andy Dalton, Colin Kaepernick and Ricky Stanzi
RB - Mikel Leshoure, Daniel Thomas, DeMarco Murray, Roy Helu, Owen Marecic and Kendall Hunter
WR - Titus Young, Jonathan Baldwin, Torrey Smith, Jerrel Jernigan, Randall Cobb, Leonard Hankerson, Austin Pettis and Jeremy Kerley.
TE - Lance Kendricks, Luke Stocker and D.J. Williams
Tackles - Derek Sherrod, Ben Ijalana, James Carpenter, Marcus Gilbert and James Brewer.
Guards/Centers - Danny Watkins, Clint Boling, Jason Pinkston, Rodney Hudson, Marcus Cannon and Stefen Wisniewski
Def Ends - Allen Bailey, Brooks Reed, Dontay Moch, Sam Acho, Jabaal Sheard, Greg Romeus and Christian Ballard.
Def Tackles - Jurrell Casey, Jarvis Jenkins and Marvin Austin
Linebackers - Martez Wilson, Justin Houston, Colin McCarthy, Bruce Carter, Quan Sturdivant, Chris Carter, Casey Matthews, Mark Herzlich, Ross Homan, Mason Foster, and Kelvin Sheppard.
Corners: Brandon Harris, Johnny Patrick, Kendrick Burney and Davon House
Safeties: Rahim Moore, Ahmad Black, Marcus Gilchrist, Quinton Carter, Deunta Williams, DeAndre McDaniel, Robert Sands and Will Hill.
As you can see going up and down this list, there is definitely some strong players still sitting there on the board, which is why picks 33 and 34 have so much value.
Possibility of Other Suprises Fall Down in to Day Two
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From a recent two round mock draft run by Fox Sports, there were some surprises, which we all expect to see on every mock draft that comes out. For Fox, they omitted Corey Liuget, Ryan Kerrigan, Jimmy Smith and Phil Taylor from their first round picks.
From Draft Tek, where they specialize in computer simulated drafts, their latest mock dated on 3/8/11, had these first round omissions: Jake Locker, Kyle Rudolph, Brooks Reed, Cam Heyward, Mark Ingram and Adrian Clayborn.
There will undoubtedly be some NFL team that takes a player that nobody was expecting them to take, that could force even more unexpected potential-first-round talents down in to Day Two. It happens every year, and in light of the mess going on with the CBA, the draft may be the only means that teams can confidently add talent to their roster for the foreseeable future.
Because of the above reason, if talent at a specific position of need is deemed to be extremely thin, that can create a perfect storm for why some teams may make a huge reach in the first round or early in round two.
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New England Patriots: Pick 33
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The New England Patriots will be fielding phone calls when the first round is completed. NFL teams will be looking to feel them out for what it would take to be able to move up in to that 33rd pick. The Patriots are more than happy to listen, and if the offer is good enough, they have demonstrated time and again that they have no problem in trading down and securing additional picks.
For the 2011 draft, the Patriots are already drafting twice in the first round, at 17 and 28. Those two picks should address fortifying the line of scrimmage, or adding a skill player that unexpectedly falls in to their lap.Then again, they could just draft the best players on their board, and hope that Mikel Leshoure is still there at pick 33 and grab their running back right off the bat.
From the deep linemen in this class, the Patriots will have a chance to add some serious depth to either side of the ball on the line of scrimmage, holding three choices over the span of 17 draft picks. Players like Anthony Castonzo or Gabe Carimi on offense, or Stephen Paea, Ryan Kerrigan, Cam Heyward or Marvin Austin will be available on defense.
Then there is the tantalizing prospect of players like Mark Ingram and Julio Jones. One or both of the dynamic Alabama duo may still be sitting there when they step up at choice 17, and maybe even at 28. That would depend on Ingram falling down in the first round, and concerns over Julio Jones' foot injury.
Either way, the Patriots figure to come out of the first two days with at least four quality players to add to their roster. If they trade down and acquire additional picks in the third or fourth round, then they place less pressure on the front office to have to worry about securing free agents for their various needs.
Buffalo Bills: Pick 34: What to Do with It?
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If the Buffalo Bills select Marcell Dareus with the third overall draft pick, that immediately addresses multiple issues on the defensive line that needed to be fixed. He will allow the defensive line to have greater versatility in being able to shift to different kind of looks without having to rotate in additional personnel.
Dareus will be creating havoc in helping to blow up plays in the backfield, along with helping to generate a pass rush adjacent to AFC Pro-Bowl tackle Kyle Williams. That duo should also excel at tying up offensive linemen that allow for easier access to the quarterback for blitzers like Shawne Merriman and Arthur Moats.
So, the Bills will anxiously await to see how the rest of the first round unfolds, and what the Patriots do with the pick right before them to start off day two.
The Bills would ideally like to see some of these names still there on their big board: Christian Ponder, Martez Wilson, Rahim Moore, Kyle Rudolph, Marvin Austin, Derek Sherrod, Cameron Heyward and Danny Watkins.
If that collective group is still all available, the Bills then have the option of either drafting whichever player has the highest draft grade, or trading down as many as seven or eight spots further down that round, and still know they have somebody sitting there that they place tremendous value on.
Either way, Buddy Nix knows he still has a good shot at obtaining another quality name in Round Three from the list we shared earlier in the slides. In addition, with two more picks coming in the fourth round, the Bills can begin to add some needed depth to positions that are very weak, or try to find a potential QB project like Colin Kaepernick.
The Andrew Luck Slide
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I realize that the quarterback talk has been dominated lately by Blaine Gabbert, Jake Locker, Cam Newton, Christian Ponder and Ryan Mallett. Time to interject one more name in to the mix, Andrew Luck.
Since the Carolina Panthers may very well draft a quarterback with the first overall pick, they are going to be seemingly set at quarterback and will want to continue addressing some of their many problem areas. They do not own a second round draft pick. If the Panthers come calling, the Bills would only trade pick 34 if the Panthers will surrender their first round draft choice in 2012.
Think about that one Bills fans. If the Bills don't add a player in the second round, that hurts the on-field production for the 2011 season. That keeps the record probably in the bottom 10 spots or so. Then you add the Panthers first round pick to the mix, which could easily be bottom five. That is the easiest way I know of to secure the services of the franchise quarterback the Bills value so much, one Andrew Luck.
Some may think this is far fetched, but if for some reason you hear that the Bills have traded their second round pick to Carolina, you heard it hear first. You will already know what Buddy Nix intends to do.
You Know the Day Two Players Will Have Chips on Their Shoulders
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Even though he had a serious knee injury coming out of Oklahoma State, Thurman Thomas sat around waiting for his name to be called at the 1988 draft. He waited, and then he waited some more. He even found time to take a nap, because he was waiting so long.
Finally, the Buffalo Bills drafted him with the 40th overall selection.
Thomas said that he played the rest of his career with a chip on his shoulder for all of the teams that passed him over in the first round. So, if the Hall-of-Fame running back can he used as a reasonable example of what can happen, that just goes to illustrate how badly the players that were passed over in the first round want to get their career started and prove everyone they were wrong.
The Patriots and the Bills are in the driver seat on Day Two. What will they have to show for it?
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