NCAA Bracket 2011 Predictions: Why Connecticut Could Make a Deep Run
They won the preseason's most recognized tournament. They completed the most historic run in a conference tournament ever, winning the nation's most challenging conference tournament. They are young, using five freshmen and two sophomores, and will be a threat for years to come. They have a Hall of Fame coach and the best player in the country.
On top of all that, the Connecticut Huskies have arguably the most favorable run to the Final Four of the 2011 NCAA Tournament.
Folks, the Connecticut Huskies are for real. An unexpectedly successful season has folks thinking that this could be junior guard Kemba Walker's best chance to win a championship before he graduates this May. No one knows Walker's decision for next year, but it is most likely that he will go to the NBA.
The match-ups and history are in Connecticut's favor. Every year I fill out a bracket, I resist the bias urge to put the Huskies in the Final Four and win it all. However, it cannot be ignored how good the Big East is this year.
I hesitated on this because I felt it could be dangerous, but my gut is telling me to put three teams into the Final Four out of the nation's premier conference, UConn being one of those three. This year, I have them meeting up with Syracuse in a rematch of the semifinals of the Big East, which UConn won in overtime. Because the Huskies have shown they can finally penetrate the zone, I have them winning and moving on to face Pittsburgh for the National Title, though they fall to Pitt.
This team could surprise you this March, if they somehow have not already. When filling out your bracket this week, use this as a guide as to why you should have UConn winning the West Region.
NOTE: I want to point out that the key word in the title is "COULD". These are points of observation that I have picked up upon over the last several days as UConn went through the Big East Tournament and reasons why I think Connecticut has a great chance at making it very far this month.
UConn Loves the West
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This is the fifth time that the Huskies have entered the Tournament as a 3-seed or better in the West Region. History likes Jim Calhoun's men here.
In 1995, the Huskies made the Elite Eight out West before losing to eventual national champion UCLA.
1999 was the first time Connecticut won the national championship. To do so, they won the West Region, defeating Cinderella-story Gonzaga in the Regional Final.
In 2004, the Huskies won their second and last national title. They defeated Arkansas in the Elite Eight to reach the Final Four.
In 2009, the last time the Huskies were in the tournament, they won the West for the third time to advance to the Final Four, where amidst allegations of recruiting violations, they fell to Michigan State, despite being a favorite to win the whole thing with North Carolina.
Four times they have been a top three seed in the West since 1995 and each time have reached the Elite Eight. In the Regional Final, they are 3-1. All three times UConn has made the Final Four, they have come out of the West Region as a top three seed.
If you are a historical person, this is not something to ignore.
Big East Champ+West+Duke= Winning Combination
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UConn has won two National Championships, succeeding in 1999 and 2004.
In both seasons, the Huskies won the Big East Tournament, were placed in the West Region, and had to face Duke.
This year, UConn won the Big East, they are in the West as the No. 3 seed and they have a potential date with No. 1 Duke in the Elite Eight. While previously the victories against Duke came in the 1999 Championship Game and 2004 Semifinals, the path has the Huskies and Blue Devils potentially locking horns again this season.
Coincidence or fate? You decide.
Reason Enough: The Huskies Have Kemba Walker
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Say what you want about BYU's Jimmer Fredette, but Kemba Walker is the best all-around college basketball player in the country.
A First Team All-Big East and First Team All-American selection, Walker averages 23.5 points, 4.3 assists, 5.3 rebounds, and 1.9 steals per game for the Huskies. Those numbers were even higher in the Big East Tournament and even dating back to the Maui Invitational. Walker and UConn in general seem to like the tournament scenario.
There is rarely such thing is a bad night for Kemba Walker and his ability to come up with something special in the clutch is undeniable. Six times this season, Walker hit a game winner in the last three minutes of a game, most recently his shot to beat Pittsburgh in the Big East Quarterfinal, which has been called by Kobe Bryant the "illest" shot he has ever seen.
Kemba also had big shots against the likes of Villanova and Texas, the Villanova one coming on a floater in the lane with two seconds left in a No. 7 vs. No. 8 battle in January at Gampel Pavilion.
The graduating junior, yes graduating (he is on track to graduate after only three years this May), is a great leader on the floor for the Huskies and gets his teammates involved. Part of UConn's problem at times was the inability for Walker to rely on his teammates down the stretch of games and at least twice, against Marquette and Notre Dame, it cost them a victory. The Big East Tournament seems to have changed that.
Walker shoots, drives, gets big and physical, passes, gets fouled, hits clutch shots, and plays defense better than just about any guard in the nation. He has the most heart, is a great leader, and can play forever. The game that truly attests for this from the Big East Tournament is the Semifinal against Syracuse, where he recorded 33 points, five assists, 12 rebounds and six steals in 45 minutes. He played every second of that game and only sat 15 minutes total the entire tournament, during which he scored a record 130 points.
When it comes down to it, of any player in the country, the one player everybody should want with the ball in their hands and the game on the line is Kemba Walker. He is a mismatch for almost anybody; just ask Pittsburgh's Gary McGhee, whose butt is probably still sore.
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The Supporting Cast Has Taken the Court
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Jeremy Lamb. He may be scrawny. He may have one of the most disproportional body figures ever, but the kid can play basketball pretty well.
The freshman from Norcross, Georgia is having himself quite a season at Connecticut and is turning into a crowd favorite amongst the Husky Faithful while making a case as a player who will turn into one of the nation's top guards over the next couple years.
Lamb is averaging 10.3 points and 4.4 rebounds this year and is only getting better. I am sure Calhoun would not mind the young guard going back to the stretch in February, where he had 20 plus in consecutive games against Marquette, Louisville, and Syracuse, but he had an excellent tournament last week. He never went under double-digits and had 17 against Pittsburgh and 13 in the Championship Game against Louisville while earning All-Tournament Team honors.
Lamb is not the only one besides Walker to expect big things from.
Sophomore forward Alex Oriakhi is starting to find his groove. After a couple quiet performances near the end of February, AO, as he is known in Storrs, hit double digits four out of five games in New York and had two double-doubles against DePaul and Syracuse. UConn is 11th in the nation in rebounding, and Oriakhi is a big part of that.
Another excellent rebounder is Roscoe Smith. The freshman has a good shot and can get physical inside. He has consistently found himself in the starting lineup, and rightfully so. He is on the verge of breaking out big time. He is not the same kid who launched the ball full court into the cheerleaders with 10 seconds left in Austin in early January. This kid is ready to perform.
Shabazz Napier is going to be the point guard when Walker leaves. The backcourt combo of Napier and Lamb could become one of the best in the Big East and the country.
Napier is a great point guard. He has great hands on defense, always capable of getting the steal, and he is great at distributing the ball. He is getting away from his young freshman antics and jitters that made him somehow throw passes too high to Smith, Oriakhi and Charles Okwandu early on. Napier is a bright light for the Huskies on the court and through his upbeat attitude off it. This kid can pose a threat to opponents and rally his team.
Another guy to look out for is Jamal Coombs-McDaniel. The sophomore had a stretch in February where he went off, averaging 21.3 over a three game stretch against Providence, Georgetown, and Louisville, though he still averaged 6.2 on the year. He is also good for about three rebounds per game. His rebound at the end of the Pittsburgh game was crucial, as he was able to get the timeout, setting up Walker's heroics.
I mention so many players because UConn has so many different options, all who are starting to come of age, that you never know who is going to be the guy to step up and help Walker and Lamb. Every team has an unsung hero. The Huskies have a few candidates for that title. Opponents may have trouble zeroing in on a role player, especially if too much attention is paid to Walker.
Upsets Unlikely
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UConn plays with a lot of heart. Its a team that loves to have fun and enjoys playing basketball and playing with each other.
That added to the fact that they have all the weapons of a great team, and the momentum that they are riding makes me highly doubt an upset looming.
The Huskies get 14 seed Bucknell, a team familiar to playing spoiler in the NCAA Tournament in the First Round; well, now it's now called the Second Round. I find it hard to imagine the Bison being able to stop the momentum-riding Huskies in this game.
Following that, it will either be a rematch of an earlier game with Big East foe and 6-seed Cincinnati or a rematch of the 2009 West Regional final against 11-seed Missouri. Both are good teams, but again, the Huskies are playing the best basketball they have all year. That is hard to overlook. Connecticut should advance to the Sweet 16 with little resistance. That is where it gets interesting.
Sweet 16: San Diego State Could Be Big Test
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The Mountain West champions are going to be a tough test. I sat on these guys for awhile during the season, but while I agree that they are not worthy of a No. 1 seed at the moment, this is a good basketball team.
They are big, physical, and athletic. They absolutely dominated BYU on Saturday and rightfully won the Mountain West Tournament.
Kawhi Leonard and Malcolm Thomas lead a talented, experienced team which will prove to be the first major test of the Tournament for the Huskies.
There are a couple numbers which are hard to ignore. First off, UConn has the advantage of having played perennial powers and the nation's elite this season. They are 5-2 against the Top 10, of which they only played twice against Pittsburgh. The Aztecs only Top 10 clashes are with BYU, in which they are in 1-2.
Then there is the in-game stats. San Diego State shoots better percentage-wise, shooting 46.7 percent (35th in the nation) while UConn is 187th at 43.3 percent. However, UConn averages more points, though only slightly more (73.4 to 72.2).
The key stat and difference comes on the boards. UConn is 11th in the nation at 39.6 rebounds per game. The Aztecs are 58th at 37.4. While again, it does not seem important based on the slight difference, the rebounding battle will be key in this game.
UConn's big men Oriakhi, Smith, Coombs-McDaniel, and Okwandu will need to be big against the likes of Leonard and Thomas, the team's leading rebounders. Even Kemba Walker will need to be big on the glass again. He drives constantly. If he misses, he needs to get in position to put it right back up, as many of his chances will come one on one on the transition.
Whoever wins the battle above the rim should win this game. Again, UConn is a great rebounding team, one of the best. Their size and strength inside gives them the chance to play in the Elite Eight.
UConn and Texas Reunite in Elite Eight
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UConn and Texas met in a great nationally televised match-up in January, which ended with the Huskies scraping a one point victory and earning what is considered one of the, if not the, best road win of any of the teams in the power conferences.
I would love to see another UConn-Duke match-up in the Elite Eight, as of course, history has the Huskies getting through Duke if they want to win it all, but beating a team who knocked off Duke could be just as nice.
If these two teams meet up again, a much more mature UConn team should be able to get past the Longhorns. It will definitely be a difficult game. We could possibly see overtime again, but look for the Huskies, led by Walker and the experienced coaching of Calhoun, to get back to the Final Four.
This is a tricky region. San Diego State can be an Elite Eight threat. That potential UConn-SDSU game will be a classic Sweet 16 match-up. Texas and Duke will go to the wire. It's up in the air, but Connecticut has the advantage of momentum and finally having a supporting cast for Kemba Walker.
Final Four: If It's Syracuse, UConn Will Have the Advantage
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I really like Syracuse in the East Region. Like I said, I feel like this could be the year of the Big East, and Syracuse is one of the most Final Four-ready teams in the conference. Scoop Jardine, Kris Joseph, and Rick Jackson will lead that team to the Lone Star State.
If it is UConn-Syracuse in the National Semifinals, as I have in my bracket, it could go either way. Hopefully, they have the second game so the other two teams do not have to sit through another edge of the seat overtime (or six) affair.
Syracuse broke a cold streak early in February with a win at the XL Center in Hartford, but the Huskies took the big game at Madison Square Garden in overtime in the semifinals. That was arguably Walker's best game at 33 points, 12 rebounds, five assists, and six steals.
It was UConn's best overall game I felt. Minus a couple of moments where they showed fatigue near the end, the Huskies played great. Most important in my eyes was the ability to FINALLY beat a zone. That was the Huskies trouble all season. They simply could not get past a zone. They settled for too many poor, low-percentage shots against the likes of Syracuse, Louisville, and West Virginia and got burned.
They finally started getting the ball down low or to the elbow, where Oriakhi, Coombs, Okwandu, and even Olander were able to have good shot opportunities. A great move by the Huskies was their ability to get a guy in behind the bottom line of the zone and get in for a lay-up or baseline jumper. Jeremy Lamb and Kemba Walker were able to drive the lane, get quality chances and often times came away with a chance for more at the line.
The zone came out again against Louisville. UConn once again succeeded. I do not think anyone can say any longer that the zone will guarantee a win against the Huskies. They are rapidly learning and improving.
If Syracuse and UConn square off in the Final Four, I love UConn's chances to make it to the National Championship Game.
National Championship Game: The Potential Run Would End with Pitt Winning It All
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Connecticut has already exceeded all expectations this year. Making the Elite Eight even would be an overwhelming success. Making the Final Four and National Championship, indescribable.
As I have said before, it really could happen.
With the path UConn has, we could be watching them play for it all on April 4th. I think they run into Pittsburgh in a rematch of the Big East Quarterfinals.
This time around, Gary McGhee will be going up to the air in celebration instead of to the floor on an ankle-breaking move which lead to Panther heartbreak last week.
Pittsburgh to me is one of the, if not the, most complete team in the tournament. They have incredible size, great perimeter shooting and players who drive and get physical. Jamie Dixon's team is always one of the most physical on the floor.
Expectations are high for the Panthers, and understandably so. This team is for real.
UConn would have nothing to ashamed of coming up short in Houston if they make it there and make it to the final game. Expectations for this year were that maybe, at best, they would be playing the NIT again this year.
While I have Pitt cutting the nets this time around, I think the Huskies are going to use this tournament as a statement for many years to follow.
This team is a great team. They will continue to be a great team. These current players will be another year older next year and more experienced. Getting to the Final Four would be huge for the future, as these guys will have been there, done that, and know how to get back and where to improve.
Look out world; here come the Huskies.
UConn's Path and Other Notable Tournament Picks
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UConn:
Second Round vs. 14 Bucknell: Win
Third Round vs. 11 Missouri: Win
Sweet 16 vs. 2 San Diego State: Win
Elite Eight vs. 1 Duke: Win
Final Four vs. East 3 Syracuse: Win
Championship vs. Southeast 1 Pittsburgh: Loss
Overall Bracket:
East Sweet 16:
1 Ohio State over
5 West Virginia
3 Syracuse over
2 North Carolina
Elite Eight:
3 Syracuse over
1 Ohio State
West Sweet 16:
4 Texas over
1 Duke
3 Connecticut over
2 San Diego State
Elite Eight:
3 Connecticut over
4 Texas
Southwest Sweet 16:
1 Kansas over
4 Louisville
3 Purdue over
2 Notre Dame
Elite Eight:
1 Kansas over
3 Purdue
Southeast Sweet 16:
1 Pittsburgh over
13 Belmont
2 Florida over
3 BYU
Elite Eight:
1 Pittsburgh over
2 Florida
Final Four:
W3 Connecticut over
E3 Syracuse
SE1 Pittsburgh over
SW1 Kansas
Championship:
SE1 Pittsburgh over
W3 Connecticut
.png?w=480 "NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament Championship")
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