NASCAR Chase for the Cup Less Crowded After Kansas

After three races in the Chase for the Cup, things are starting to get clear. We have a few definite observations from this past weekend.

First, Joe Gibbs Racing has run out of its season-long domination and has effectively eliminated itself from contention.

Second, Jimmie Johnson and Carl Edwards are the two to beat (but you knew that already).

Finally, four drivers who weren't a factor all season have suddenly found themselves still in contention and waiting for the top two guys to make a mistake.

Kyle Busch's season has fallen apart. Yes, we will remember his pure domination, winning eight races and lapping the field consistently.

But we will also remember how when the Chase started, the one driver who led by consistency and equipment has had mechanical failures in all three races. Now he sits 311 points behind leader Jimmie Johnson, and we can effectively say he is eliminated.

Now, I know he's not just going to roll over and play dead. He's got pride, and I am sure he will be a factor to win some races. But if you thought the deficit before was at least giving him a shot before Kansas, we all have to agree his quest for a championship is over.

Kyle Busch: eliminated.

For Tony Stewart, it was Tony Stewart and Brian Vickers who got in his way. He never had a great car, from the moment they unloaded on Friday. He qualified poorly.  For many Chase  drivers, pit road was worse than the on-track accidents.  Brian Vickers and the No. 20 crew  got in each other's way.

On one of the early stops, Vickers' crew literally ran in front of Stewart's crew and caused him to lose what little track position he had gained.

Then soon after the restart, an on-track incident with Brian Vickers sent Tony mowing through the grass, causing damage to his Toyota and after delaying the inevitable, came in to pit road for repairs and was several laps down.

Poor track performance and setups put him in the position to be deep in traffic for most of the day. His finish dropped him four places in the standings to 11th, 255 points behind the leaders.  His final season with JGR and Home Depot might be one he wants to forget.

Tony Stewart: eliminated.

For Denny Hamlin, once again his issues just seemed off. He ran with the leaders for a while, but a ill-handling car took his Toyota well off pace, and he struggled to make ground on the track and in the standings. He moved up one position only due to Tony Stewart's issues.

I don't want to eliminate him quite yet. I still think some of his better tracks are coming up. But there are too many guys in front of him who are running well.

Sitting 243 points off the pace will be tough to overcome. For the Gibbs boys, they are hoping to dig themselves out of the cellar and finish the season with some momentum heading into Speed weeks.

Denny Hamlin: Hanging on by a thread.

Matt Kenseth once again led laps and qualified strong in third. But he spun when Casey Mears tapped him after a restart, so he had to fight his way back into the top 10. Finishing in the top five was a huge rebound for this team.

They stayed with the car and kept up with the adjustments. Kenseth is a smart racer and knows his deficit might not win him a championship, but with his recent runs, finishing in the top five in points is a possibility.

Kenseth has no room for error at this point. He sits 192 points back on the leaders. Mathematically he is still in this.

Matt Kenseth: Still fighting...for now...

Dale Earnhardt Jr. has garnered a pattern. Start the race off strong, battle for the lead, fall behind on adjustments, battle an ill-handling car to have decent finishes.

But the problem is, decent finishes won't win NASCAR'S poster child a championship, at least not this year. While he is a contender every week, he has struggled during the race keeping up with the track and the conditions.

He is one of the final drivers still one within one points race of the leaders at 190 points off. Unless seven drivers in front of him make major mistakes, he is looking toward just finishing in the top 10 or top five to keep pace with the leaders.

Dale Jr.: Within reach.

Clint Bowyer got into this Chase barely, and he has barely made any noise. An early mistake  had him battling all day. Their problem seems to be getting marred back in traffic and losing touch with the leaders. 

While they are running around fellow Chase drivers, they are never getting close enough to the front two, to ever become a factor. Talladega will be telling for this group. If they come out of this with a strong finish, they are still in this Chase. But one wrong move and Clint will watch his Chase hopes fade, as he is 164 points back.

Clint Bowyer: Fading.

Jeff Gordon is doing something he hasn't been able to do all year: adjust with the car and the track and be a factor. This four-time champion has steadily been climbing the standings while others have been fading.

With strong finishes in the first three races (yes, New Hampshire was a strong finish considering he avoided a major hit and still finished in the top 15), he needs to win a race, not only for his own personal best but to stay in touch with the leaders.

He has been consistent, and Talladega is the perfect place for him to find his first win.

With recent Chase finishes of 14th, seventh and fourth, a first-place finish is the next one for Gordon.  I am keeping him in, not only because he is sitting 143 points behind, but the fact that he was sick, and he battled all day in that car just to stay in the race.

He is actually still a contender; the next couple tracks will be a real test for this team, including Texas, where this team posted its worst finish in his career early this year.

Jeff Gordon: Still kicking and sneezing...

Kevin Harvick sits 136 points behind the leaders.  Sunday was nothing to flashy for him. He started in the back and worked his way up front. With good pit stops and the right adjustments on this car, a strong top 10 finish allowed him to continue his steady climb in the Chase. He is still alive as a dark horse, but he is not the only one.

Kevin Harvick: Making his charge.

Jeff Burton, ever so consistent, sat in the top five in points all season and has stayed in the top five in the Chase. But he needs a win to stay in touch with the leaders. Leading laps and collecting bonus points is what he needs to do. While he knows their equipment does not match the leaders', he is holding in strong 121 points off the pace.

Jeff Burton: Wading in the water.

Greg Biffle started off hot, well, scorching, winning two in a row and coming to one of his best tracks. But he was never a factor as he struggled with the handling and lap traffic most of the day. A late-race move to pass Gordon allowed him to finish better than the car actually ran. He sits only 30 points behind, waiting for the two guys in front to make a mistake.

Greg Biffle: On the prowl...

Carl Edwards loves his video games. He loves them so much he tried a move to win the race.  He was hungry for a win at his home track. It's clear Carl Edwards is tired of playing second fiddle to once-leader Kyle Busch and now to Jimmie Johnson.

Talladega is not his best track, but he will be a factor. Watch for Carl to make his move on Jimmie Johnson sitting only 10 points behind.

Carl Edwards: Just waiting.

Jimmie Johnson is doing what Jimmie Johnson does: dominating the Chase with strong runs and winning races. It's unbelievable what he can do in the final 10 races. But Jimmie can't afford to make a mistake, because there are seven other drivers who are more than ready to make a charge.

Sitting atop the points lead is nice, but he wants to be there at the end, in the final lap of Homestead.

Jimmie Johnson: In championship form.

Talladega will be a wild card. A few drivers have an advantage, Jeff Gordon, Dale Jr. and Tony Stewart have mastered the draft.

As I've said before, mistakes are key. We saw JGR eliminate themselves this past week, and a few drivers are on the bubble. The leaders don't want to make a mistake that can cost them a championship, and Dega is the place that can happen.

Drivers who have not been a factor find some consistency and have been making up ground.

Look for our dark horses; drivers four through seven to make some ground on the leaders this weekend at the world's fastest super speedway.