NCAA Bracket 2011 Predictions: 5 Reasons Florida Is Destined for an Early Exit
The Florida Gators are looking mightily pretty heading into the NCAA Tournament.
They won the SEC East with a 13-3 record, and finished the regular season at 26-7.
Billy Donovan's bunch will open the tournament against UC-Santa Barbara, and would face UCLA or Michigan State in the second round.
Common sense might say Florida rolls into the Sweet 16, but not so fast.
Here's five reasons why the Gators don't make it through two rounds.
Struggles Versus Small Schools
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The Gators dropped a non-conference game, earlier in the year, to the Jacksonville Dolphins.
I cannot tell you how many people said, "Hey, did you see Florida lost to Jacksonville State last night?" following the loss.
No, they did not lose to Jacksonville State, but it seemed okay for people to say that considering most people don't even know Jacksonville University exists.
Unless you cover the Atlantic Sun Conference (I do, actually) the Jacksonville Dolphins are likely as foreign of an idea to you as names for various stars in other galaxies.
Florida lost to the Dolphins 71-68 on their own floor.
That loss is too far in the past, obviously, considering the selection committee still saw the Gators as a two seed.
But, Jacksonville proved to us that an undermanned team can compete and beat the blue and orange.
They Don't Share the Ball
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The Florida Gators' assist per game ratio ranks 102nd in the country.
Starting point guard, Erving Walker, averages 3.3 assists to 2.4 turnovers per game.
Both of Florida's guards have a shooters mentality. When they are hot, they are no doubt hard to stop, but high percentage points have not appeared to be of importance to Florida.
Their leading scorers are Walker, and shooting guard, Kenny Boynton.
Chandler Parsons leads the team in assists. He's a forward.
Florida's offense is built from the inside out, but looks to shoot more than score in the paint.
Sharing is more than just caring. It's a formula for success in the NCAA Tournament. The more physical teams win games.
Yes, the Gators are insanely dangerous and good at shooting from range.
But, interior teams take higher percentage shots, and have more room for error. Expect Florida to shoot very well, as always, but it only takes that one bad game from their shooters to make them fall flat on their face.
Seniority May Not Matter
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Florida is one of the more experienced teams in the country.
Technically.
They start a core group of juniors and seniors, with the lone youngster being Boynton.
Going into Sunday's SEC Championship game, I picked Florida because of their experience, going against Kentucky's youth.
That obviously didn't factor in, as the Wildcats out manned the Gators and beat them by 16 points.
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They Are Coming off a Loss
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Yes, Florida has followed each of their losses in 2010-2011 with a win.
But, in a win or go home situation, the nerves are already higher.
Players are thinking harder, more nervous, and need fast and comfortable starts in games.
This may be easier for teams who are coming off wins.
Confidence is of huge importance in the NCAA Tournament, and Florida might be thinking too hard about what not to do wrong and avoid another loss.
Physicality Could Be an Issue
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Florida is considered a finesse team, from their backcourt to their frontcourt.
Erving Walker is a short guard. Kenny Boynton is exclusively a shooter.
And, forward/center Chandler Parsons hovers around 215 pounds, as a guy who stands at 6'10".
If Florida gets into a pound and grind match, they might lose an advantage.
Vernon Macklin is definitely a forceful post man, but the Gators need more than one guy who can back the ball down against bigger teams.
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