Fantasy Baseball Regression Risk: 5 Players With Inflated BABIP With RISP

Eric StashinMar 11, 2011

It's easy to look at a players’ statistics and draw conclusions.

On the surface, it isn’t hard to do. Home Runs, RBI, Batting Average—things are pretty cut and dry.

It’s when we delve deeper into the numbers that we can actually get some useful information.

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Today, I want to look at the five players who enjoyed the most luck with runners in scoring position (minimum 160 plate appearance).

Will it mean they are a lock to fade in 2011 and struggle to pick up RBI? Of course not, but there is a chance that they could regress.

Let’s take a look at who they are and the risk (or non-risk) that may be involved:

Adrian Gonzalez, Boston Red Sox: .406

This number came while he was a member of the San Diego Padres, which actually makes his performance in 2011 even less of a concern.

Yes, there was a lot of luck behind his 2010 line of .298, 31 HR, 101 RBI, but he will also be in a much improved situation in 2011.

In 2009, he posted a .275 BABIP with runners in scoring position and still had 99 RBI (he also hit 40 HR). In fact, he’s had 99 or more RBI in each of the past four seasons, despite playing in one of the worst hitter’s parks in baseball, as well as in a pitiful lineup.

Now he moves to Fenway Park, into one of the best offenses in the league.

Yes, the number is eye popping, but there is nothing to be concerned about. Just the improved lineup alone should allow him to maintain his RBI level, if not improve upon it, even with a fall in BABIP.

Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds: .406

He had his coming out party, hitting .324 with 37 HR and 113 RBI in ’10.

The question is, considering this lofty BABIP with RISP, can he replicate the RBI mark?

The number may be big, but he actually only had 69 RBI with RISP. That actually tied him for 21st in the league (with Adrian Gonzalez, no less).

Should we be concerned in the least about his RBI production? It certainly wouldn’t appear so.

Adam LaRoche, Washington Nationals: .396

He had 100 RBI with the Diamondbacks last season, including 79 with RISP (tied for fourth in the league).

Considering the luck that was involved with runners in scoring position, it would seem unlikely that he can maintain the big RBI mark.

In 2009, he had a .343 BABIP with runners in scoring position, leading to 83 total RBI. That seems like a much more realistic mark, doesn’t it?

Yes, he is moving to a new team, now joined by Jayson Werth and Ryan Zimmerman in the middle of the Nationals order.

However, at the same time, he's also leaving an extremely favorable ballpark (though his ’10 splits didn’t necessarily show it).

The fact of the matter is that this is a huge red flag and should give cause for concern. Expecting him to reach 100 RBI for a second consecutive season is a real long-shot.

Carl Crawford, Boston Red Sox: .394

Let’s be honest, you aren’t drafting Crawford for his RBI potential, are you?

Yes, it was great to see him contributing 90 RBI in ’10, but I don’t think anyone is going into 2011 expecting him to replicate it.

Yes, he’s on a new team (and one of the best offensive lineups in the game), but even without any statistical support, most would have called it unlikely.

Carlos Gonzalez, Colorado Rockies: .377

He’s one of the best young players in the game. However, his number does give off a split second of hesitation.

Is there a chance that he falls short of his 117 RBI from ’10? Absolutely!

This number alone would give me reason to believe that he’s going to fall shy, as does the 79 he had with RISP in ’10. Does that mean he’s not going to be usable?

Does that mean he’s not going to close in (and potentially surpass) 100? Of course not.

It just means that you want to be realistic when projecting him out for 2011. There will likely be a regression in his RBI, but nothing earth-shattering and nothing to really worry about.

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