2011 NFL Draft: Need a Franchise Quarterback? You May Be out of Luck

For the record, let me state that I am not a scout, former player or someone with any experience when it comes to scouting players. Last year, I said that Jimmy Clausen would be a better NFL quarterback than Sam Bradford. After one year, I don’t look so smart. However, these guys should have long careers ahead of them, and plenty can change.

So why would I come back a year later and start talking about the next group of QBs? Well, I love football, and I love stating my opinion about a player, even if I’m wrong. When Andrew Luck decided to return to Stanford for his junior year, it left a huge void for the top player in the draft. Luck has it all: size, intelligence, underrated athleticism, accuracy, productivity, and success in a pro-style offense.

We aren’t going to see a franchise quarterback—yet—out of this class. But why do we have to pump these guys up so much? I understand how much a quarterback means to a franchise, but for every Peyton Manning that comes along, there’s Ryan Leaf, Tim Couch, Akili Smith, Joey Harrington and David Carr, to name a few. With such a low percentage of actually making a great pick, why not allocate that pick to another position?

Let’s start with Blaine Gabbert. The junior from Missouri decided to declare because of the probability of getting picked high. Once Luck dropped out, his chances exploded, and he has done everything to keep people talking about him being THE No. 1 pick.

He has really good size and created some buzz by running really well at the Combine. He had a great sophomore year when his TD:INT ratio was 24:9. As a junior, he didn’t put up as many big numbers, where his touchdowns dropped to 16 and his interceptions stayed at nine. His efficiency rating was 127.0, which means absolutely nothing, but he was ranked 69^th in the country. To his credit, his completion percentage shot up over five percent from ’09 to ’10.

Are you really comfortable taking Gabbert number one overall? What does he have going for him right now: The fact that he came from a spread offense, is a junior, or had a 16:9 TD/INT ratio? Is he the consensus best player in the draft and will he significantly improve your team? In a draft loaded with some elite defensive talent, I wouldn’t even hesitate to pull the trigger on someone else.

Cam Newton owned the 2010 college football season. He collected almost every major individual award, including the Heisman Memorial Trophy, and led Auburn to a national championship. He also ruled the off-the-field headlines.

Cam’s father, Cecil, allegedly arranged a pay-for-play setup where he would receive $180,000 for his son’s football skills. The NCAA did a thorough investigation and claimed that Cam had no idea of the scheme, so they couldn’t suspend him.

He already comes with some baggage. As a freshman, he was kicked off of Florida for stealing a laptop and allegedly cheated on exams. He transferred to a junior college in Texas and won a national championship before signing with Auburn. A few weeks ago, Cam called himself an “entertainer and icon” in an interview before the Combine.

However, you cannot deny the rare physical tools Newton brings to the position. At 6’5”, 248 lbs, he has Big Ben-like size and elusiveness in the pocket. He runs very well for his size and has excellent balance in the open field. He might be a better runner than Vince Young. He has a good throwing motion and a strong arm.

On the downside, Newton needs a lot of work. He will face a learning curve coming from a spread, one-read offense. His footwork is very sloppy and looks like he hasn’t made a deep drop in his college career. He comes across as a cocky person; how will that translate into the NFL? It will take some work for Newton, but he has the most upside of the class.

If Jake Locker came out for the 2010 draft, it would have been a big debate between Sam Bradford and he for the number one pick. Locker chose to come back for his senior year, and some are questioning if it was the right move. He is certainly wiser and tougher, but he didn’t improve statistically and was banged-up for most of the season.

Locker is another quarterback who possesses great physical tools. He’s tall enough for a quarterback and carries his weight well. He is a gifted athlete who was drafted by the Angels. His cannon lets him make all the throws. He carried a moderate program in the Pac-10 and didn’t get the national attention of other players.

In 2010, it didn’t appear as Locker took that next step as an elite player. He didn’t have a great supporting cast, was banged-up most of the year, and had problems with accuracy. He had an awful 4-20 passing performance against Nebraska—although the Huskers had one of the best pass defenses in the country—and was missing targets.

He’s a kid that leaves you wanting more. You wish that he was dynamic in college and led the Huskies to a BCS bowl, but the program isn’t ready for prime-time yet. You wish that his completion percentage was higher his senior year, and his accuracy would improve.

Out of these three, I like Locker the most, followed by Gabbert, then Newton. Personally, I wouldn’t touch any of these guys in the top 20, mainly because this is such a strong defensive draft. However, I’m willing to believe that all three of them can become really good quarterbacks in the NFL. It’s just going to take time.