Fantasy Baseball High Risk/High Reward: What Can We Expect From Jordan Zimmerman

Jordan Zimmermann looked impressive in his Major League debut, though the numbers did not fully back it up. 

Yes, he had a 4.63 ERA and 1.36 WHIP, but when you look at his underlying metrics, there was an awful lot to like:

• The ERA was sabotaged by a 67.5 percent strand rate
• The WHIP suffered from an unlucky .332 BABIP
• His strikeout rate was impressive, with a 9.07 K/9
• His control was impeccable, with a BB/9 of 2.89

Fantasy owners were salivating about what could be, but it was all taken away when news broke that he had to undergo Tommy John surgery. However, Zimmermann persevered and quickly returned in 2010. 

Again, his numbers may not have been impressive on the surface (4.94 ERA, 1.32 WHIP), but the fact that he was already on the mound is significant.

The fact that, despite the overall numbers, there was a lot to like is even better.

Generally, a pitcher coming back from Tommy John surgery will struggle with his control early on—Francisco Liriano is the best example.

However, you wouldn’t have known that Zimmerman was out of action by looking at the numbers.

In 2010, Zimmerman posted a BB/9 of 2.90, reminiscent of both his 2009 mark and the number he posted over his minor league career (2.79). At this point, there is little reason to think that he is not going to have solid control once again.

His peripheral numbers were also solid, with a .261 BABIP and 72.3 percent strand rate. He also showed a very good groundball rate, at 48.9 percent. 

So, exactly where did he go wrong?

One problem was in his HR/FB, which was at 22.2 percent. Just for comparison purposes, of all pitchers who qualified for the ERA title, the worst HR/FB belonged to James Shields at 13.8 percent. 

Only three other pitchers had a mark above 13.0 percent. Needless to say, there was a lot of bad luck involved.

The other thing was his strikeout rate, which paled in comparison to his 2009 mark and from his minor league career (9.41). 

He managed just a 7.84 K/9, which is still good, but given what he had done prior to the injury, it is fair to assume that he will improve on it as he puts the surgery further into his rear-view mirror.

Obviously, his 2010 season was a very small sample size, having made just seven starts. Still, he showed more than enough to make fantasy owners confident that he could hold value in 2011. 

Is he a pitcher to anchor your staff with? Not even close, but then again you don’t need to draft him as such (his current ADP is 191.44 according to Mock Draft Central).

He has shown more than enough to warrant a late-round flyer and he has the upside to be a tremendous asset in filling out your rotation. 

What are your thoughts of Zimmermann? Is he someone that you think will have value in 2011? Why or why not?  

Make sure to order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here.

Make sure to check out some of our 2011 projections:

• Barmes, Clint
• Buchholz, Clay
• Butler, Billy
• Choo, Shin-Soo
• Drew, Stephen
• Ethier, Andre
• Freese, David
• Hudson, Tim
• Hughes, Phil
• Jaso, John
• Johnson, Chris
• Uggla, Dan
• Morrow, Brandon
• Phillips, Brandon
• Reyes, Jose
• Reynolds, Mark
• Rios, Alex
• Sanchez, Gaby
• Stanton, Mike
• Suzuki, Kurt
• Wieters, Matt
• Willingham, Josh
• Young, Michael

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