2011 NFL Mock Draft: A Pick-by-Pick Critique of Mel Kiper Jr.'s Most Recent Mock
Around this time of year, the NFL mock drafts pour out like clockwork, and it may be impossible to keep track of all the different ideas people have. One person whose ideas most follow, however, is Mel Kiper Jr. He has been a very influential figure in draft analysis throughout his time doing it.
Just like anyone else, he's been right and wrong. It's not my intention to determine whether he's right or wrong. The goal is to simply grade each pick as if the team had actually selected that player.
I will also match wits with Kiper's picks by giving my own predictions.
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1. Carolina Panthers: Blaine Gabbert, QB Missouri
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Nobody doubts the athleticism of this year's crop of quarterbacks. All of them are very fast, strong-armed individuals. The question surrounding all of them, though, is whether their athleticism and physical ability translate from the college level to the pros.
Of course, Sam Bradford seemed to have no trouble, but he also relied more on his pocket skills from the shotgun in college than these quarterbacks did.
As Kiper points out, a rookie wage scale is imminent, but with so many other needs and with little chance of protecting their young quarterback, much less competing with one, the Panthers should look to build a championship-caliber defense.
Grade: B-
My pick: Da'Quan Bowers, DE Clemson
The Panthers can get their edge rusher of the future in Bowers at the No. 1 overall pick. Defensive guru Ron Rivera would certainly be able to maximize his talents, even in a rebuilding defense.
2. Denver Broncos: Nick Fairley, DT Auburn
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John Fox is switching the defense from its 3-4 alignment of last year to his preferred 4-3 front. That would seem to favor him taking a disruptive defensive lineman like Fairley high in the draft.
There's one thing Fox understands is necessary to team success, and that's a solid work ethic. Fairley's is in question, and spending the second pick in the draft on someone with a fundamental question mark like work ethic isn't my idea of a solid pick.
Grade: A
My pick: Marcell Dareus, DT Alabama
Dareus is a big presence on the defensive line, just like Fairley. The big difference is that Dareus doesn't have the questionable background of Fairley. He can obviously clog the running lanes at 319 pounds, but can rush the passer with the best of them.
3. Buffalo Bills: Marcell Dareus, DT Alabama
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I'm surprised he didn't have Cam Newton going here. Everyone else seems to.
Dareus would be a great fit for the Bills if he is available. They lack a presence on the nose, but he could line up anywhere as they transition to a 3-4. Wherever he projects out to make the biggest impact, he would probably fit there.
Best of all, he's a great kid with a glowing background.
Grade: A
My pick: Blaine Gabbert, QB Missouri
Dareus isn't available in my mock, and despite Cam Newton's stellar workouts, I don't like the several question marks around his past. Still, Chan Gailey loves himself a quarterback project, and Gabbert is certainly that with the physical tools to be one of the best if he can pick up the pro-style offense quickly.
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4. Cincinnati Bengals: Cam Newton, QB Auburn
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People projecting Newton as a top-five pick could be surprised.
The Bengals have so many other issues to address, even if Carson Palmer retires. Newton isn't ready to plug and play—he will take several years to develop. With the instability of the Bengals' locker room over the past decade, though, chances are the cancers would overcome him and he would never develop.
Grade: D-
My pick: Patrick Peterson, CB LSU
There's no doubt that Peterson is in the top five prospects of the 2011 draft. There is legitimate proof that picking a cornerback early is a safe pick in the draft. Peterson is oozing with athleticism, but it translates into pads very well.
5. Arizona Cardinals: Von Miller, OLB Texas A&M
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The Cardinals better have a plan at quarterback if they want to keep Larry Fitzgerald after 2011, when he will become a free agent. They may look at a short-term solution if and when free agency begins this offseason.
For the long term, however, they must look on defense. Von Miller is pretty small for a rush linebacker in the NFL, but the Cardinals need to do something about their pass rush here. He could be schemed in on pass-rushing downs, but I wonder if this pick might be too high for Miller.
Grade: B+
My pick: Robert Quinn
I would be shocked if Quinn falls out of the top five. He has been considered by many to be in consideration for the top pick in the draft, and several teams are crazy about his potential. He could play on the edge in a 3-4 defense, and could do so very well.
6. Cleveland Browns: A.J. Green, WR Georgia
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If the Cleveland Browns make this pick, their fans will be jumping for joy as high in the air as A.J. Green is in this picture.
Why shouldn't they be? A great young receiver to go with their upstart young quarterback is the makings of a great offense. Oh, and some guy Peyton Hillis is a pretty effective running back, too.
With a weapon like A.J. Green, the Browns offense would be scary.
Grade: A
My pick: A.J. Green, WR Georgia
7. San Francisco 49ers: Patrick Peterson, CB LSU
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I'd be incredibly surprised if Peterson fell this far. He is considered by some—including Kiper himself—to be the top prospect in the draft.
But man, if he fell this far, the 49ers would be foolish to pass on him. As mentioned earlier, cornerbacks taken in the top 10 have generally been successful, and cornerbacks who have projected as the best prospect in the class—i.e. Charles Woodson and Deion Sanders—have succeeded.
Grade: A
My pick: Nick Fairley
The 49ers thought they had one of the best defenses in the league going into last year, but they were exploited early in a winless first six games. Nick Fairley would instantly upgrade them in the trenches. Jim Harbaugh is a young coach who can speak to Fairley on his level. This could be the beginning of a great relationship.
8. Tennessee Titans: Da'Quan Bowers, DE Clemson
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That would be back-to-back steals on players considered in contention for the No. 1 overall pick, Kiper.
Not really sure what I think of that. Players fall all the time, and someone has to go No. 2, 3, etc. But for Bowers to go all the way to 8, at least two teams would have to pass on him. Those teams are Carolina and Cincinnati, both of whom need a talented pass rusher for their 4-3 defenses badly.
If Bowers falls all the way here, he's not falling any further. The Titans will get bookend defensive ends in back-to-back drafts with this pick.
Grade: A
My pick: Cam Newton
First-time head coach Mike Munchak will get his franchise quarterback to mold for the future in what will be considered a steal and a huge slide for Newton. It will be a criticized pick, as Newton is very much the same mold of quarterback as Vince Young was. But we shouldn't forget that Bud Adams is the one who really calls the shots in that organization.
9. Dallas Cowboys: Prince Amukamara, CB Nebraska
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Several analysts have said it, and I'm on board. The first step to rebuilding the Cowboys should have been cutting Mike Jenkins. Too often, he was spotted taking plays off that led to big plays against him.
Amukamara can come right in and get the secondary back on track, shutting down one side of the field with consistency.
They have a talented front seven, and with more production from the secondary, the Cowboys defense could be a force once again.
Grade: B+
My pick: Prince Amukamara, CB Nebraska
10. Washington Redskins: Julio Jones, WR Alabama
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The Redskins lacked playmakers on offense last year, and with Santana Moss and Clinton Portis running free in the free-agent market, they need all the ammunition they can get.
It remains to be seen whether Donovan McNabb will be throwing the ball next year, but history shows McNabb is at his best when he has a talented young deep threat at his disposal.
Whoever is throwing the ball, though, will certainly benefit from having Jones to throw it to.
Grade: B+
My pick: Von Miller, OLB Texas A&M
The Redskins could get their yin pass rusher to Brian Orakpo's yang. If he falls this far, I would be shocked if he fell any further.
11. Houston Texans: J.J. Watt, DE Wisconsin
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J.J. Watt is anything and everything a team would want in a 3-4 defensive linemen.
He is a disruptive force as a pass rusher, and projects well at the next level. His explosion number and production ratio rank him the highest in both categories of all defensive ends and outside linebackers.
The Texans would be more than willing to pick him up to begin building that front, which they lack the pieces for presently.
Grade: A
My pick: Aldon Smith, DE Missouri
He is "intrigued by" the 3-4 system the more he learns about it. This very quote shows how raw of a prospect he is. Still, he is in the mold of one DeMarcus Ware, who was highly successful in Phillips' system for some time.
12. Minnesota Vikings: Robert Quinn, DE UNC
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If only Quinn fell this far, the Vikings would most certainly jump on it.
They didn't get nearly the production out of their front seven last year that they got the year before, and their team suffered for it. The resurgence of Jared Allen in the second half of last season combined with the sudden presence of a second edge rusher would be more than most offensive coordinators could bear.
And it would make Leslie Frazier one happy coach.
Grade: A
My pick: Tyron Smith, T USC
Brett Favre got beat up so badly last year, his iron-man legacy was broken. Smith would instantly upgrade the Vikings in their pass protection, without giving up much of anything as a run blocker.
13. Detroit Lions: Tyron Smith, OT USC
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As Kiper points out, this isn't exactly a top need for them, but it's a great value pick.
Gosder Cherilus is coming off of microfracture surgery on his knee, and Jeff Backus is due to hit free agency in 2012. Those are some pretty significant question marks to have at both tackle spots.
Smith is a dominant run blocker who holds his own in pass protection. His presence would be welcome in doing whatever he can to keep Matthew Stafford upright and injury-free in 2011.
Grade: B
My pick: Cameron Jordan, DE California
The Lions have been rebuilding their defensive line over the course of the Jim Schwartz era, and Cameron Jordan could be the final piece to the puzzle. He projects as a 4-3 defensive end in the NFL, and has really done a lot to impress scouts over the past few months.
Putting him on the line next to Ndamukong Suh would cause havoc in the trenches.
14. St. Louis Rams: Corey Liuget, DT Illinois
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This pick wouldn't surprise me in the least. Many thought they would take Ndamukong Suh with the first overall pick last year, but instead St. Louis took Sam Bradford. Spagnuolo likes the value he would get out of this first-round defensive lineman.
Putting him alongside Chris Long would really open things up in their defensive playbook.
Grade: B+
My pick: Julio Jones, WR Alabama
A big-time target for Sam Bradford? This would be a dream come true for them.
15. Miami Dolphins: Mark Ingram, RB Alabama
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Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams were once a feared two-headed attack. Now, with Williams looking toward retirement and Brown a free agent, it seems the backfield is in flux for the first time in a few years.
Dolphins head coach Tony Sparano loves to run the ball, and can go get this draft's only possible "franchise back" in Ingram.
Grade: A
My pick: Mark Ingram, RB Alabama
16. Jacksonville Jaguars: Aldon Smith, DE Missouri
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Smith could play defensive end in the NFL, but may need to add a little bit to his trim 263-pound frame.
Still, with his moves, he could easily dominate opponents. He'll certainly have the help of some talented interior linemen.
He would instantly upgrade the Jaguars defensive line, lining up next to Tyson Alualu to form a formidable push on one side of the line.
Grade: A
My pick: Ryan Kerrigan
Kerrigan had 12.5 sacks last year and five forced fumbles. He seems to me the better 4-3 defensive end prospect than Smith for his size and motor. He is simply relentless on every play.
Under the tutelage of Aaron Kampman, he could become one of the best 4-3 defensive ends in the league.
17. New England Patriots: Ryan Kerrigan, DE Purdue
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Kerrigan doesn't project out as the prototypical outside linebacker in New England's 3-4 system. Then again, neither did Clay Matthews or LaMarr Woodley in their respective systems. One thing Kerrigan brings that both of those guys also brought is pass-rush potency.
We have also heard about his solid work ethic in college.
This seems a bit of a stretch to me, and with Justin Houston still on the board, I would expect them to go in that direction.
Grade: B-/C+
My pick: J.J. Watt
Call me crazy, but I think Watt will fall to the Patriots. The Patriots gave up Richard Seymour for this pick two years ago, and finally get to cash in with a player who literally looks like the second coming of Richard Seymour.
18. San Diego Chargers: Cameron Jordan, DE California
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Just like the Patriots, the Chargers are in the market for an injection of youthful talent in the pass rush. Whether it comes in the form of a five-technique defensive linemen, or a pass-rushing outside linebacker, should simply depend on the value.
Jordan played in a 3-4 at Cal, but some think he projects out as more of a 4-3 end for his smaller frame. The Chargers will continue to run a 3-4 under Greg Manusky.
Grade: B+
My pick: Aldon Smith, DE/OLB Missouri
The Chargers missed on Larry English a few years back, and have no edge rusher opposite Shaun Phillips. They need an outside linebacker to team up with him and get that pressure.
19. New York Giants: Mike Pouncey, G/C Florida
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The success of his brother Maurkice Pouncey will have many teams thinking he will produce similar, if not the same, results.
Mike has all the same tools as Maurkice, and the Giants could sorely use his presence to open up that road-grading running game.
Grade: A
My pick: Mike Pouncey, G/C Florida
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Justin Houston, DE Georgia
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After picking up two defensive tackles with their first two picks in 2010, the Bucs could take another huge step toward solidifying their defensive line by picking up an end with this pick.
Houston is a hybrid prospect, but at 6'3" and 270 pounds, he could be a legitimate fit as a 4-3 end in the NFL. He is a solid pass rusher and would instantly upgrade Tampa Bay's defensive line.
Grade: A-
My pick: Justin Houston, DE Georgia
21. Kansas City Chiefs: Akeem Ayers, OLB UCLA
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Ayers is slightly undersized for a 3-4 defense, but what he adds as a pass rusher makes him a great pick to put alongside Tamba Hali. Romeo Crennel will be anxious to get his hands on another top-end pass rushing prospect.
Even with his smallish frame, Ayers can still contribute in the running game if he is allowed to play off the line of scrimmage. Mike Vrabel didn't contribute much last year, and finding his eventual replacement may be becoming more important by the moment.
Grade: B+
My pick: Stefen Wisniewksi, G/C Penn State
The Chiefs' interior of the offensive line is not only aging, but Brian Waters and Casey Wiegmann both have expiring contracts. Wisniewski could step in and pick things up quickly, and could play either position depending on where he is needed most and where he projects out the best.
22. Indianapolis Colts: Anthony Castonzo, T Boston College
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The Colts had trouble stopping anyone from getting after Peyton Manning for long stretches last year. Charlie Johnson and Ryan Diem may not be the solutions at tackle for the future. Castonzo would immediately upgrade either tackle spot and would provide insurance for Bill Polian's hundred-million-dollar investment.
Why, though, would they pass on Nate Solder with him still on the board?
Grade: B
My pick: Nate Solder, T Colorado
Solder might be one of the largest offensive tackle prospects I've seen in the draft in some time. He's a solid pass blocker, but the Colts have always lacked talented run blockers. Solder could do that for them and hold down one of the tackle spots for those outside runs.
23. Philadelphia Eagles: Gabe Carimi, T Wisconsin
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Most mock pundits are in agreement that the biggest need for the Eagles is on the offensive line, and there are plenty of prospects to choose from. Carimi is one of the better options left on the board for Philadelphia's pick, but in Kiper's mock he has Nate Solder left on the board.
From a value standpoint, the Eagles could have done a bit better with this pick, but protecting Michael Vick has to be of utmost importance to Philadelphia.
Grade: B+
My pick: Anthony Castonzo, T Boston College
24. New Orleans Saints: Muhammad Wilkerson, DT Temple
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Wilkerson is a talented pass rusher as a defensive tackle, and was even coined a "cheaper Dareus" in terms of this year's draft.
The Saints have holes opening up on the defensive line with expiring contracts for Remi Ayodele and Anthony Hargrove. They could certainly use an injection of youth on the defensive front, and Wilkerson would make a great pair with Sedrick Ellis.
Grade: B
My pick: Corey Liuget, DT Illinois
St. Louis might have picked Liuget if there were no receivers on the board, but he's still here for the Saints in my mock.
25. Seattle Seahawks: Jake Locker, QB Washington
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This could quite possibly be the trendiest pick in the 2011 NFL draft at any specific spot. Pete Carroll may or may not have a lot of faith in Charlie Whitehurst, especially after he was very candid about his feelings for getting Matt Hasselbeck re-signed.
Locker looked great at the combine, and although he had a lackluster senior season, he showed what he's capable of earlier in his college career. He is definitely a project, but could be a long-term solution if he can sharpen that accuracy a little.
Grade: B-
My pick: Jake Locker, QB Washington
26. Baltimore Ravens: Jimmy Smith, CB Colorado
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The Ravens have a lot of upcoming free agents in their fold, and adding Smith's physicality to that Ravens defense would be great for them.
With the vicious Ravens front seven stocked to the nines, the secondary remains the final piece of the puzzle. He could quickly grow into the NFL if his off-field issues don't creep up.
Grade: B+
My pick: Jimmy Smith, CB Colorado
27. Atlanta Falcons: Adrian Clayborn, DE Iowa
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With John Abraham climbing the retirement ladder, it may be time to start looking for the defensive ends of the future in Atlanta. Whether they were exposed by the Packers or simply had an off day shouldn't matter much, because every team should be in the business of developing defensive ends.
He would instantly add a shot of attitude to the defensive front of the Falcons.
Grade: B+
My pick: Cameron Heyward, DE Ohio State
He will be a risky pick because of Tommy John surgery, but he proved he can play at a high level all throughout college, and many athletes have come back better than before from that surgery.
28. New England Patriots: Leonard Hankerson, WR Miami
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This is the first time I have heard Hankerson's name in the first round, but it's not the first time I've heard his name linked to the Patriots.
Mel Kiper has been riding this "Patriots need a receiver" train since they traded Randy Moss, but I'm just not on board. They dominated offensively last year without that prototype "field stretcher" everyone seems to think they lack.
Still, Hankerson would add another dimension of versatility to that offense, giving Brady an over-the-top option (even if they don't necessarily need one).
Grade: B-
My pick: Gabe Carimi, T Wisconsin
Yes, I have the Patriots drafting two players out of Wisconsin in this year's draft. Carimi adds a great amount of versatility to the Patriots offensive line, and not to mention the lack of youth they currently suffer from on that front.
They have been content developing late-round depth on offensive line, but in terms of value, Carimi may be as good as they get.
29. Chicago Bears: Nate Solder, T Colorado
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In terms of both value and need, Nate Solder may be one of the best picks the Bears could hope for at 29. Although the offensive line came along in the second half of 2010, the Bears could get their franchise tackle of the future with this pick.
He's still a little rough around the edges, but a few years of NFL experience and coaching will help him along tremendously.
Grade: A
My pick: Derrek Sherrod, OT Mississippi State
Same position, different player. He still fills a need, and is a player who is rising up boards recently.
30. New York Jets: Rahim Moore, S UCLA
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The Jets are always looking to get ball hawks in the secondary. While Brodney Pool is becoming a free agent, they still have Jim Leonhard and Eric Smith back there as well as three top cornerbacks. Moore Is the best safety prospect in this class but the Jets could use help elsewhere.
Grade: B-
My pick: Phil Taylor, DT Baylor
After neglecting to do so in last year's draft, the Jets will probably be looking to upgrade their front seven this year. Taylor gives them a franchise nose tackle of the future to build the rest of the defense around. He would be the eventual replacement for Kris Jenkins.
31. Pittsburgh Steelers: Danny Watkins, OG Baylor
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The Steelers continue to rebuild their offensive line in the first round of the draft, trying to get back to the smash-mouth running attack that they identified with so well in the past.
With an attitude lineman like Baylor's Watkins who is also versatile, the Steelers would be getting everything they ask for in their offensive linemen with this pick.
Grade: A
My pick: Danny Watkins, OG Baylor
32. Green Bay Packers: Brooks Reed, Arizona
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Reed is a name that has been skyrocketing up boards recently, but this is the first time I've seen his name dropped in the first round.
The Packers proved that those hybrid defensive ends can fit in their system with Matthews, and Reed projects similarly as a pass rusher. Dom Capers will find at least a few ways to make use of Reed.
Grade: B
My pick: Akeem Ayers, OLB UCLA
Ayers would be a great value pick for the Packers here and would instantly provide them an even more violent pass rush. Ayers could slide a little based on his lackluster workout.
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