2011 NFL Mock Draft: Matt Miller's Updated Round One Mock After Free Agents Sign
The 2011 NFL Draft is a mere six weeks away. In a normal year, we would fill this space talking about free agent signings, trades and restricted free-agent tenders.
Instead, we are left with an uncertainty regarding the offseason until a new collective-bargaining agreement can be signed. In the days leading up to the expiration of the current CBA, we saw teams hurry to sign available free agents like Bob Sanders (San Diego Chargers), Shaun Rogers (New Orleans Saints), O.J. Atogwe (Washington Redskins) and Jeremy Shockey (Carolina Panthers).
With these signings came some clarity surrounding NFL team needs as the annual draft nears. As each day passes, it becomes more likely that free agency will not take place until after the draft, which leads us to believe that many teams will draft for need this year instead of drafting the best available players. We also believe more teams will draft NFL-ready players over players with great potential who will need time to develop in the NFL.
Without further ado, here is our latest look at the first 32 picks of the 2011 NFL Draft. Stay tuned for our updated team needs and top 500 players later this week.
1. Carolina Panthers
1 of 32
Patrick Peterson, Cornerback, LSU
"And with the first overall pick in the 2011 NFL Draft, the Carolina Panthers select..."
How that sentence ends is on everyone's mind right now. The Panthers have tons of needs on both sides of the ball. New head coach Ron Rivera has said that 2010 second-round pick Jimmy Clausen is not guaranteed the starting spot at quarterback next fall, leaving open the possibility that the Panthers could draft a quarterback first overall.
The team has definitive needs at almost every position, making this pick an educated guess at this point in the process. With so many needs, the Panthers can truly sit back and draft the player rated highest on their draft board. We believe that player will be LSU cornerback Patrick Peterson.
A junior in 2010, Peterson dominated the college football landscape as a shut-down cover man and a dynamite punt returner. The Panthers are solid at defensive end, ruling out Da'Quan Bowers or Robert Quinn here. While there is a need at defensive tackle, the position is deep in this draft and no player is a sure thing if picked No. 1 overall.
Patrick Peterson is as close to a sure thing as we have found in the 2011 NFL Draft class.
2. Denver Broncos
2 of 32
Marcell Dareus, Defensive tackle, Alabama
The Broncos are making a move back to the 4-3 defense under John Fox this year, leaving a big question mark at defensive tackle. The team moved last week to re-sign cornerback Champ Bailey, temporarily filling a need at cornerback.
This leaves Denver in position to draft Dareus, who will play next to Pro Bowler Elvis Dumervil in the four-man front. This gives Denver a viable defensive line to build around and also will help pressure the quarterback and shorten the amount of time their patchwork secondary has to cover the defensive backfield.
Dareus is quickly shooting up draft boards and moving ahead of SEC-rival Nick Fairley of Auburn. As the draft nears, it is becoming more likely that Dareus will be the first defensive tackle off the board.
3. Buffalo Bills
3 of 32
Von Miller, Outside linebacker, Texas A&M
As of now, the Buffalo Bills still run a 3-4 defense. We figure it will stay that way once they have Von Miller crashing the backfield every play.
Miller has been a top-10 player on our boards all season, but he is starting to receive consideration as a top-five pick in the first round after outstanding performances in the Senior Bowl and again at the NFL Scouting Combine.
Miller is a true pass rusher from the edge. He brings a scary combination of speed, intelligence and instincts to a position of great need for the Bills.
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4. Cincinnati Bengals
4 of 32
Da'Quan Bowers, Defensive end, Clemson
We have a feeling the Bengals will find a way to re-sign both Cedric Benson (RB) and Jonathan Joseph (CB) this offseason.
Carlos Dunlap flashed his brilliance in 2010, but his potential was halted by injuries. Dunlap will be back in 2011, a fact that has many Bengals fans excited and optimistic. Opposite Dunlap, there is a need at end. A pass rusher with speed is a welcome addition to Cincinnati and could be the team's focus with the fourth-overall pick.
Bowers is the ideal prospect for a 4-3 defense. He is big, fast and strong enough to set the edge in run support. His raw athleticism and ability will make his name a hot topic early in the 2011 NFL Draft.
5. Arizona Cardinals
5 of 32
Blaine Gabbert, Quarterback, Missouri
Before the Cardinals can improve as a team, they must address the quarterback position. There is a strong chance they will try to bring in a veteran here if/when there is free agency and they can discuss trades for players like Kyle Orton or Kevin Kolb. But for now they must focus all of their resources on improving via the draft.
Gabbert is polished, professional and he has the arm to lead the team back to the playoffs. Coming from a spread offense in which he was only a two-year starter is concerning, but Gabbert has shown the make up of a franchise quarterback.
The Cardinals could definitely consider Auburn's Cam Newton here, but Gabbert is a better fit for coach Ken Whisenhunt's offense.
6. Cleveland Browns
6 of 32
A.J. Green, Wide receiver, Georgia
The Browns are facing an offseason in which they need to add targets for Colt McCoy and rebuild their defense while changing from a 3-4 to a 4-3 system. Oh, and they must replace Shaun Rogers after releasing him in a salary-cap move.
As Colt McCoy matures and becomes the Browns' franchise quarterback, he will need receivers to grow with him. Cleveland could pull the trigger as early as Round 1 on a No. 1 receiver for McCoy.
Should the Browns decide to go after a wide receiver in the first round, they will be lucky to find A.J. Green on the board. Green has a rare ability to attack the ball and make plays after the catch. He'll be a fan favorite immediately in Cleveland. Some may say Alabama's Julio Jones is the better athlete, but Green is a more polished receiver and a bigger threat in the red zone.
7. San Francisco 49ers
7 of 32
Robert Quinn, Outside linebacker, North Carolina
The 49ers plan to keep their 3-4 alignment on defense, meaning they must look to improve at outside linebacker. Speed is needed, but, more importantly, they need an edge rusher who can scare offenses. This is something San Francisco never had under Mike Nolan or Mike Singletary.
Robert Quinn's name has been heating up lately, with many calling him the best defensive end/outside linebacker in the draft. Quinn, who did not play in 2010, was among the best defensive players in college football during the 2009 campaign.
He will need to answer questions about taking money from agents, but he will also be incredibly impressive in workouts.
Yes, the 49ers need a quarterback and they need help at cornerback, but Quinn is the best player available here and he fills an immediate need.
8. Tennessee Titans
8 of 32
Cam Newton, Quarterback, Auburn
The Titans franchise is in shambles. Gone are head coach Jeff Fisher and franchise quarterback Vince Young, with relative newbie Mike Munchak taking over as the top dog.
Quarterback is the obvious need here, and word has it that the Titans brass is very enamored with the athletic freak known as Cam Newton.
Newton comes from a spread offense that allowed him to make one read and then run if he didn't like what he saw, leaving many to wonder if he is ready to play in the NFL right away. In Tennessee, Newton would have the luxury of playing behind veteran Kerry Collins for at least one season.
9. Dallas Cowboys
9 of 32
Nick Fairley, Defensive end, Auburn
It is surprising that Nick Fairley, who many consider the best player in the draft and a strong possibility at No. 1 overall, could still be on the board with the ninth-overall selection. Due to needs at the position and a perception that Fairley is dirty and could come with baggage, it is very possible he could see a draft-day fall.
In Dallas, Fairley will replace Marcus Spears, a free agent who is likely to walk from Dallas. A defensive tackle during his two years at Auburn, Fairley projects well at left end in a 3-4 scheme.
10. Washington Redskins
10 of 32
Julio Jones, Wide receiver, Alabama
Jones was incredibly impressive on Sunday while working out at the NFL combine. This might not push his stock higher than it already is, but we feel it will solidify his place among the top 10 picks in the first round of the 2011 NFL Draft.
Washington has major needs at quarterback and wide receiver, not to mention cornerback, but they will use their first-overall pick on the best player available at those positions. Lucky for them, Jones is sitting here waiting for them.
Washington must address their need at quarterback early in the draft if they choose to draft Jones here. With limited draft picks in later rounds due to trades, Washington is also very likely to trade this pick to one of many teams hoping to land a quarterback.
11. Houston Texans
11 of 32
Prince Amukamara, Cornerback, Nebraska
The Houston Texans may break a record for fastest draft-pick ever if they find Prince Amukamara on the board when their pick comes up at No. 11.
The Texans pass defense was atrocious in 2010, and massive changes will be made to the entire defense this offseason with the introduction of Wade Phillips as defensive coordinator and a scheme change to a 3-4 defense.
One area that has to change is the starting cornerback duo: 2010-draftee Kareem Jackson is at least one of the starters and Amukamara would become the other.
12. Minnesota Vikings
12 of 32
Jake Locker, Quarterback, Washington
Is this a reach, drafting Jake Locker with the 12th-overall pick in the first round? We say no.
The Vikings have few needs to address now that they have re-signed Chad Greenway (OLB) and Brian Robison (DE) to fill needs at key positions. One position they must address before any other is quarterback.
Joe Webb is not ready to be an NFL starter after his rookie season, and no other player on the roster offers hope at the position. The Vikings could bring in a veteran to play ahead of Webb, but with no CBA and no free agency, the team faces a time crunch. Combine that with the fact that a veteran player is only a band-aid and it makes more sense for Minnesota to slightly reach for a quarterback they believe in here.
Locker needs work. He is far from a finished product, but he offers more potential than almost any other player in this entire draft. An athletic freak with a live arm, Locker needs to improve his footwork and accuracy to truly offer Vikings fans hope.
13. Detroit Lions
13 of 32
Tyron Smith, Offensive tackle, USC
Jeff Backus turns 34 this season. Matthew Stafford's two seasons in the NFL have ended with injuries. Offensive tackle is a need here.
Lions fans will tell you they need to focus on defense in Round 1, but we disagree. They do need to add a cornerback and outside linebacker, but this can be done later on. Grabbing a franchise left tackle must take precedence in a draft loaded with talent in Rounds 2 and 3.
Smith has rare athletic ability for the position and in fact reminds us a lot of Denver Broncos Pro Bowler Ryan Clady.
The Lions may have gotten lucky here at No. 13.
14. St. Louis Rams
14 of 32
Cameron Jordan, Defensive end, California
The Rams are seriously hoping wide receiver Julio Jones will somehow fall to them here at pick No. 14, but too many teams are taking notice of Jones' talent.
The consolation prize here is not too bad, though. Cameron Jordan has been talked about as the best defensive end in the entire draft. He is a rare combination of pass rusher, run stopper and a great overall person.
Head coach Steve Spagnuolo made a name for himself as defensive coordinator of the New York Giants by moving around his defensive linemen and exploiting weaknesses on the offensive line. With Cameron Jordan on the roster, Spags will be able to move him from end to tackle without missing a beat.
15. Miami Dolphins
15 of 32
Mark Ingram, Running back, Alabama
Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams will both enter free agency this offseason. The Dolphins are not expected to bring both back and could ultimately choose to start fresh at the position and let both leave. Whichever they decide, running back figures to be a key need for Miami in the draft.
If you read our mock drafts each week, you may have noticed a back-and-forth here between Ingram and Illinois running back Mikel LeShoure. In the end, this will be a pick of preference by the Miami personnel department. Our preference is LeShoure, but Ingram's pedigree and ties to the Dolphins will be hard to overlook when the Dolphins are on the clock.
16. Jacksonville Jaguars
16 of 32
J.J. Watt, Defensive end, Wisconsin
Aaron Kampman can be a dominating pass rusher, but for the second-straight year, he tore an ACL and had to have surgery. His long-term value has to be in question. This makes adding a defensive end in the first round all the more important for Jacksonville.
Watt is bigger than Jacksonville is used to for a defensive end, but he brings an amazing ability as an edge rusher and he can also contribute as a run stopper on the edge. Unlike many smaller defensive ends, he has the size and strength to anchor the edge against the run while rushing the passer from an outside position. Put him head up on a tight end, and he has the strength to jam him at the line of scrimmage to throw off the timing of routes.
17. New England Patriots from Oakland Raiders
17 of 32
Aldon Smith, Outside linebacker, Missouri
We have previously slotted the Patriots to draft an offensive tackle here, with the belief that they will move to replace Matt Light with their first pick in the draft. It is also worth noting that we firmly believe the Patriots will consider trying to trade this pick.
Should the Patriots hold on to pick No. 17, they will be faced with many options, chief of which is a chance to draft an outside linebacker who can rush the passer. As good as the Patriots defense is, they are weak on the edge and have not done an effective job rushing the passer as of late.
Smith is a raw athlete who may not be ready to dominate at the NFL level, but he offers more speed at the position than the team has had in years. Smith is a step in the right direction as the Patriots continue to re-build their defense.
18. San Diego Chargers
18 of 32
Adrian Clayborn, Defensive end, Iowa
Clayborn just might be the draft's preeminent 3-4 defensive end, depending on who you ask and if that person takes in to consideration rumors that Clayborn has character issues. There is no questioning he is a very talented player and a bit of a steal with the No. 18-pick overall.
San Diego has needs at many positions on defense, and they will spend many selections focusing on outside linebacker and inside linebacker later on in the top-three rounds. The Chargers will also need to look at running back, wide receiver and right tackle at some point in this draft.
In Round 1, the Chargers are fortunate enough that they can aim in many directions, but no other available players are as ready to make an impact as Clayborn.
19. New York Giants
19 of 32
Gabe Carimi, Offensive tackle, Wisconsin
Injuries decimated the Giants offensive line this year, but this also exposed weaknesses and areas of need. No position needs more attention than offensive tackle. Building depth at tackle is a need, but the Giants can also look for young players who can eventually start.
Carimi is slightly underrated by NFL analysts and TV scouts, but having seen him firsthand numerous times, it is hard to not be impressed with Carimi's ability on the blind side. He is a dominant force in the run game and he has the tools to become an elite pass protector.
A strong performance at the NFL Scouting Combine has many analysts moving Carimi up their draft boards
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
20 of 32
Ryan Kerrigan, Defensive end, Purdue
At one point early this year, we had Ryan Kerrigan rated as our No. 1 defensive end. That was until he decided to play poorly down the stretch and cause many to question his work ethic and character. Kerrigan has the tools to be dominant but faded when facing elite tackles like Gabe Carimi of Wisconsin.
Kerrigan performed very well at the Senior Bowl earlier this year and then looked phenomenal in workouts at the NFL Scouting Combine.
The Buccaneers traditionally like smaller defensive ends who show the speed to rush off the edge. Kerrigan brings that and more.
21. Kansas City Chiefs
21 of 32
Anthony Castonzo, Offensive tackle, Boston College
Right tackle was the weak point on the offensive line in Kansas City this year. The Chiefs are not likely to draft a tackle early—that has never been Scott Pioli's style—but drafting a right tackle in the draft is something to expect.
We like to remind people that Scott Pioli drafted Sebastian Vollmer No. 58 overall to play tackle for the Patriots, which seemed to be set at the position at that time.
Castonzo is rated by many as the No. 1 offensive tackle in the 2011 class. He has great size and length and he has shown to be an elite run blocker and pass protector. The Chiefs will plug him in at right tackle for the next decade.
Should Julio Jones fall here, the Chiefs would do back flips and cartwheels, but that looks incredibly unlikely.
22. Indianapolis Colts
22 of 32
Nate Solder, Offensive Tackle, Colorado
Peyton Manning had to feel a little human this season after being beaten into the turf by the Chargers and then the Cowboys. Even in the playoffs, Manning looked rushed, rattled and scared in the pocket. We can hardly blame him after looking at how terrible the Colts offensive line was this year.
Solder is an elite athlete for a left tackle, a must in the Colts' zone-blocking scheme. He has long arms, a big frame and the footwork to get to the second level and pull on screens and stretch plays.
Solder may be too tall for many offensive systems, but Manning is a bigger quarterback and able to see over, around and through a player like Solder.
23. Philadelphia Eagles
23 of 32
Brandon Harris, Cornerback, Miami (Fla.)
Ellis Hobbs, the team's No. 2 corner, is a free agent after the season. The end of Round 1 would be a smart place to find a future starter at cornerback, leaving Round 2 for the need at guard. Reid tends to like aggressive corners who attack the ball. Brandon Harris of Miami fits the Eagles' scheme very well.
The Eagles like physical cornerbacks who can face the receiver and make plays on the ball. Harris not only fits this mold. He has the size to run with the NFL's biggest receivers.
Harris' name is shooting up draft boards lately. He is a lock to hear his name called in Round 1.
24. New Orleans Saints
24 of 32
Justin Houston, Defensive end, Georgia
The Saints were previously a favorite to draft a defensive tackle with this pick, but their recent signing of Shaun Rogers makes that less likely. It also means the Saints new No. 1 need for this offseason is adding a premier pass rusher to pair with Rogers and Sedrick Ellis on the defensive line.
Houston is an intriguing prospect. He has played defensive end at Georgia and he is a terror off the edge, but weak against the rush. Many look at him as an outside linebacker prospect, but we think he could fit in great at right defensive end on the Saints defensive line.
25. Seattle Seahawks
25 of 32
Jimmy Smith, Cornerback, Colorado
Jimmy Smith has the unfortunate distinction as being the only player to over-perform at the NFL Scouting Combine and see his stock fall. How is this possible? Smith had to be interviewed by media present at the combine and bombed in his media session. Smith comes across as brash, arrogant and entitled. Those are not good qualities for a first-round pick.
Smith's saving grace is that he is one hell of a cornerback. At 6'2", he has the size to line up with the NFL's biggest receivers and not be dwarfed in size. He is also much quicker than other tall cornerbacks and shows the burst and agility to keep up with smaller, speedier receivers.
Smith is a gamble, but Seahawks coach Pete Carroll knows all about giving players a second chance.
26. Baltimore Ravens
26 of 32
Torrey Smith, Wide receiver, Maryland
Many will cite that Torrey Smith is all speed and no substance. We would argue that Smith is closer to a complete receiver than many will admit.
Yes, his game is prominently about speed, but is that such a bad thing? Smith will bring a next level of speed to NFL offenses while he learns the intricacies of the position.
The Ravens have one of the slowest receiving crews in the NFL and would jump at the chance to add a burner like Smith to line up opposite Anquan Boldin. A deep threat would open up more options in the Ravens offense and force safeties to respect the deep ball.
27. Atlanta Falcons
27 of 32
Kyle Rudolph, Tight end, Notre Dame
Tony Gonzalez is likely entering his final offseason in the NFL, as many expect him to retire after the 2011 season. Gonzalez is also a free agent and he is nearing the very end of a Hall of Fame career. Atlanta will need to draft a tight end early to replace Gonzalez's role in this offense.
Rudolph, despite missing major minutes over the past two seasons, is by far the No. 1 tight end in the 2011 NFL Draft class. When healthy, he has the skills to dominate.
Many question Rudolph due to numerous injuries, but a closer look reveals fluke injuries that are unlikely to hurt Rudolph in the NFL.
28. New England Patriots
28 of 32
Derek Sherrod, Offensive tackle, Mississippi State
Matt Light is a free agent if/when the new collective bargaining agreement is signed and he could fall under the Patriots' history of not re-signing older players. Light can be replaced on the left side by Sebastian Vollmer, but this leaves a hole on the right side.
No matter what is done with Light, adding a future right tackle is a focus for New England with one of their three picks in the first 33 selections.
Sherrod is a left tackle by trade but he has the strength to play on the right side in a zone-blocking system or West Coast offense. He is an underrated run blocker and in pass protection he is NFL-ready. It is also possible that Sherrod could move to left guard to replace Logan Mankins if he is not re-signed.
While the Patriots could look to add a running back or wide receiver here, drafting an offensive lineman is the safest pick.
29. Chicago Bears
29 of 32
Jon Baldwin, Wide receiver, Pittsburgh
The Bears surprised many people by winning 11 games this year, especially when you consider the sad state of their offensive line. Improvements need to be made at guard, where Chicago needs an upgrade in pass protection. Do not be surprised to see Chicago draft offensive linemen early in the 2011 NFL Draft.
Despite their woes on offense, the Bears were still one of the best teams in the NFL this season. Where can they make upgrades immediately to jump start the offense? They can start by drafting legitimate threats for Jay Cutler to throw to.
30. New York Jets
30 of 32
Brooks Reed, Outside linebacker, Arizona
It never hurts to have too many pass rushers, especially when you have to face Tom Brady twice every year. For the Jets to finally make a Super Bowl appearance in 2012, they must be able to generate a pass rush that can stop the Bradys, Mannings and Roethlisbergers of the NFL.
The Jets have Calvin Pace, but not much else at outside linebacker with the release of veteran Jason Taylor.
Reed fills a hole in the defense while improving team speed at linebacker and giving New York another dangerous element on an already scary defense.
31. Pittsburgh Steelers
31 of 32
Mike Pouncey, Offensive guard, Florida
The Steelers were so close to another Super Bowl ring—and we believe they have the talent to be back in the big game next season. The team is loaded at wide receiver, running back and on defense. They also have a top-five quarterback and a young coach who are excellent leaders.
Where Pittsburgh is obviously lacking is in the offensive line and the secondary. With pick No. 31, the Steelers are in a great position to draft the best available cornerback or offensive lineman.
In this case, the best available player happens to be the younger brother of 2010 rookie and Pro Bowl selection, Maurkice Pouncey.
Putting the two Pounceys side-by-side will be an automatic improvement to the Steelers' pass protection.
32. Green Bay Packers
32 of 32
Corey Liuget, Defensive end, Illinois
The Packers enter the offseason after winning the Super Bowl with few immediate needs. One area of concern is defensive end in their 3-4 scheme.
Cullen Jenkins, a free agent, recently said he was "99-percent sure" he would not be back in Green Bay next fall. Opposite him, Johnny Jolly looks like a potential salary cap cut. Mike Neal was drafted in the second round of the 2010 NFL Draft, but he has yet to see the field enough for anyone to have a feel on his potential.
All of this adds up to the selection of Liuget here. A powerful defensive tackle for the Fighting Illini, he projects as an ideal defensive end in a three-man front.
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