Five Contract-Year Hitters Fantasy Baseball Owners Should Target in 2011
You may think that all five of the hitters listed are shoe-ins to cash in on big contracts after the 2011 season, especially given their past production. However, all five have questions surrounding them as they head into their contract years. Let’s take a look at each and if they could be a great investment as they try to get big bucks via free agency:
Prince Fielder
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He was extremely disappointing in 2010, hitting .261 with 32 HR, 83 RBI and 94 runs. I know, couldn’t that be a “bad” season for all of us? Still, with years of 46 and 50 home runs under his belt, there is little argument that there is a certain amount of room for growth in his numbers.
If Fielder wants to be paid like one of the elite sluggers in the game, he is going to have to show that he can put up 45 homers once again. If he falls into the low 30s for a second-straight season, while he is going to get a solid contract, it will likely pale in comparison to what it could be. Given the potential weight problems and the history of his father, Cecil, that shouldn’t come as a very big surprise.
He is likely going to enter 2011 with a chip on his shoulder and he should be in line for another monster campaign.
Aaron Hill
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We’ve talked about his historically bad luck in the past (click here to view), which helps to explain why he struggled so badly in 2010. He’s in a slightly different boat then the other players on this list, as he has an $8 million option that the Blue Jays can pick up for 2012 (as well as an $8 million for 2013 and $10 million for 2014). If he doesn’t rebound, that’s $26 million that he’s leaving on the table.
To make matters worse for Hill, the Blue Jays acquired Brett Lawrie in the offseason, who easily could be breathing down his neck for playing time before long. Granted, Toronto is looking to move Lawrie to third base for now, but if Hill struggles, don’t think that they won’t hesitate to move him back again.
Hill may not be able to replicate his .286, 36 HR campaign from 2009, but if he becomes less homer happy (54.2-percent fly-ball rate in ‘10), you have to believe that things will turn back around for him. I would definitely anticipate him having a much better year overall.
Jose Reyes
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For Reyes, it is all about staying healthy, because if he does that there is no questioning his abilities. He has always been one of the elite stolen-base threats in the league and, even if the Mets do rein him in a bit in an effort to keep from injury, you would think that he is still a lock for at least 35.
In Citi Field it wouldn’t be surprising to see him hit 35 doubles and 17-plus triples to go along with 10-15 HR. That type of production, with David Wright and company waiting to drive him in, would also lead to a significant number of runs. They are dynamic numbers and certainly would lead to a big, fat payday. However, if he misses time for a third-straight season, there could be teams that shy away from him due to durability concerns.
For my projection of what to expect from Reyes in 2011, click here.
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Jimmy Rollins
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This is probably his last chance for a big payday at 32 years old. Like Reyes, Rollins needs to prove that he can stay healthy for an entire season. He also needs to show that his poor averages the past two seasons (.250 and .243) are not what we should expect.
Granted, they came courtesy of poor BABIP (.251 and .246, respectively), but a third-straight poor year and we won’t be able to use that as an excuse any more. If he rights that ship with improved extra-base potential (16 doubles, three triples, eight home runs in 350 AB in ’10), you know someone is going to throw some big money his way. The pressure is on. One thing we know about Rollins is that he has always thrived under the spotlight.
Look for him to have a big year in 2011.
Aramis Ramirez
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Another player who has struggled with injuries in recent years, Ramirez showed in 2010 that he still had power (25 HR in 465 AB), but at the expense of his average. Like Hill he got a little bit homer happy (56.8-percent fly-ball rate), which helped lead to a poor BABIP (.245) and subsequently a poor average (.241).
The talk is that he is healthy now, which should help him correct the obvious flaws he showed last season. At 32 years old, he needs to produce in order to get one last, big contract. I would look for him to have a huge year and turn it into a big payday. Considering he plays a weaker position, he is well worth the risk.
What Are Your Thoughts?
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Those are my thoughts on these guys.
What are your thoughts of these five contract-year players? Who do you think will have a big season? Who do you think may struggle?
**** Make sure to order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here. ****
Make sure to check out some of our 2011 projections:
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