Handicapping the Chase Drivers: Kansas Speedway

Fool me once, Greg Biffle, shame on you, but you’re not fooling me two weeks in a row.

Neither are you, Matt Kenseth, my dark horse pick of last week, or Carl Edwards, who I called a “no-brainer,” or Jeff Gordon, who was “reasonably near the front” all day, just like I said.

In other words, I had a heck of a week last week at Dover, when most of my picks finished right around where I expected them to.

Kansas, however, is a whole different animal. The Car of Today has never raced at the relatively new track, and as such, it’s a little more difficult to predict who’s going to finish where based on past races alone.

A good barometer for where Chase drivers are going to finish might be the July race at Chicagoland Speedway, a track very similar in design to Kansas.

Here’s what to expect from each of the 12 drivers this week at Kansas:

1. Carl Edwards

Carl didn’t finish too well at Chicagoland, ending up 32nd after falling a lap down, although he did lead with as little as 60 laps to go. He finished third here in 2005 and sixth in 2006, although he crashed out with Tony Stewart last year and wound up 37th.

Keep in mind that from the first race at Richmond until now, a span of 19 races, Carl has only finished outside of the Top 10 three times. Based on momentum alone, it’s hard to go wrong with picking Edwards this weekend.

2. Jimmie Johnson

Jimmie’s average starting position at Kansas is a fantastic 5.5, but his average finish is 12.0, and he hasn’t ever really contended for the win here except in 2006, when Stewart passed him with five laps to go.

Johnson has been pretty hot since finishing 2nd at Chicagoland, however; so he should at least be good for a Top 10 finish.

3. Greg Biffle

In the last six races at Kansas, Da Biff has the most points of anyone, with 849. He won here last year, and he’s won the last two races this year. He also finished fourth at Chicagoland this year.

Nobody in the garage has more momentum coming into this weekend, and a career average finish of 11.0 (which bumps up to 6.0 if you only count his starts in Roush Fenway vehicles) says that Biffle will contend for three wins in a row on Sunday.

4. Jeff Burton

Aside from a fifth here in 2006, there hasn’t really been much for Burton to smile about at Kansas.

It’s not exactly easy to predict where Burton will finish this week either, because his finishes have been all over the place since joining RCR: 15th in 2004, 28th in 2005, fifth in 2006, and 36th last year.

Burton also finished 19th at Chicagoland, despite starting the race third. Be wary of the AT&T team this weekend, if only because Burton could either be a huge hit or huge miss this weekend.

5. Kevin Harvick

Happy is fifth all-time in points scored at Kansas, with 827. He’s only failed to complete 109 laps at the track, and 107 were because his car overheated in 2004.

In other words, Harvick is usually consistently towards the front at Kansas. Although he’s never led more than 48 laps in a race, and his highest finish is sixth, he has an average finish of 13.0 when his car completes the race.

Harvick also finished third at Chicagoland this year. If you can pick up Harvick for insurance purposes, he shouldn’t let you down.

6. Clint Bowyer

Home track advantage? Clint’s finished ninth and second in two starts at his home track, putting him third overall in that two-race span. In the Nationwide Series the past two years, he finished fifth in 2006 and fourth last year.

He’s generally good at Chicagoland too, with an average finish of 13.7.

One more kicker: Clint’s only failed to complete two laps from the first Michigan race up to now. Bowyer might be one of the smartest picks in the field for Sunday.

7. Tony Stewart

Stewart’s second all-time in points scored at Kansas, with 966 in seven starts.

Even though he wrecked out here last year with Edwards, but it’s his only finish at the track worse than 14th. His average finish is an excellent 11.1 with one win, two years ago.

Stewart was also fifth at Chicagoland earlier this year. Expect Stewart to be up toward the front, if not contending for another victory, come Sunday.

8. Jeff Gordon

The only driver to outrank Stewart here at Kansas is Gordon, who’s scored 18 more points than Stewart in the same amount of starts.

Keep in mind, that translates to an average finish of 10.6 (or, if you discount a failed fuel pump in 2006, an excellent 5.8) with two wins.

He finished 11th in Chicagoland this year, leading six laps towards the beginning of the event. Gordon’s a great pick if you want a potential steal this weekend.

9. Dale Earnhardt Jr.

He's the seventh-best all time at Kansas with 810 points, Junebug’s only failed to complete two laps at Kansas since 2002.

Although his best finish is sixth in 2002, his average finish is a respectable 17.1. Junior finished 16th at Chicagoland after starting second, remaining on the lead lap all race.

All signs point to a top-15 finish for Junior, if not a top-10, but don’t bet on a win.

10. Matt Kenseth

An average finish of 22.1 isn’t going to do much for you this weekend. Then again, when Kenseth’s on a hot streak coming into Kansas, he can pull off some decent finishes.

In 2002, he finished seventh for his fourth straight Top 10, and in 2005, he finished fifth, capping an eight-race stretch in which his average finish was 7.3.

Kenseth’s got some momentum from Dover and could surprise this weekend.

11. Denny Hamlin

Hamlin’s never finished on the lead lap at Kansas, despite only failing to complete four laps in three Cup starts at the track. He won’t wreck out, sure, but a best finish of 18th isn’t exactly top-tier material.

Even in the Nationwide Series, his average finish is only 17.0 after three starts with no Top Five finishes. Hamlin also only finished 40th at Chicagoland this year, four laps down. Avoid him if you can.

12. Kyle Busch: Damaged goods: do not touch. Everyone knows about Shrub’s meltdown the past two races, finishing 34th at Loudon and 43rd at Dover. His average finish of 26.5 at Kansas, partially buoyed by wrecks in 2004 and 2007, doesn’t help matters.

Busch may have won the Nationwide Series race here last year, but as we saw last week at Dover, Nationwide and Sprint Cup success do not go hand in hand.

Even though Busch won at Chicagoland this year, that was during a period where the M&M’s team could do no wrong, winning six times in an 11-race stretch. Don’t even think about him.

So who would I pick to win this weekend? Good things come in threes: each owner in the Chase has three cars in it, Johnson’s attempting to win his third championship, and I think Da Biff can pull off his third consecutive win this weekend.

Clint Bowyer, given that Kansas is his home track, could be another solid pick to run up front.

For a dark horse, if you can ever call him that, consider Jeff Gordon, the best driver of all-time at this track. Gordon’s another driver due for a win this season, and Kansas may be his best opportunity yet.