AL East Positional Analysis and Ranking: Starting Rotations' No. 5 Starter

I am in the midst of a series examining the relative strengths and weaknesses of the teams in the AL East, on a position-by-position basis.

The players at each position are being ranked in relation to their peers within the division, with each team being assigned points based on where their player ranks in comparison to the other players.

Today, the series continues with a look at the No. 5 starters in each rotation.

The best player will earn 10 points for his team, with the remaining players being assigned points as follows: 7-5-3-1.

At the end of the process, I will accumulate all of the points for each team and create a divisional power ranking.

Analysis/Ranking:

Here are the 2010 statistics for each of the five projected starters entering the 2011 season.

The chart presents the five basic stats used in fantasy baseball, plus ERA-plus and Runs Above Replacement (RAR). The rankings contained herein are based on these stats, plus projections as to what the upcoming year may have in store.

1. Wade Davis, Tampa Bay

Davis is clearly the best of a bad lot (of course, what do you expect from a quintet of No. 5 starters?).

He improved significantly from the first half to the second half last year.

He lowered his ERA from 4.86 ERA to a 3.22 ERA, although his second-half xERA indicates he may have been more lucky than good (his hit rate was 28 percent and strand rate was 77 percent after the All-Star break). He had a .274 BABIP for the year, so there was an element of luck to his entire season.

His major peripherals all improved from the first half to the second half with the exception of BABIP. His ERA, WHIP, BAA, OBP, slugging percentage, strikeout-to-walk ratio and home run rate (hr/fb) all saw dramatic improvements.

For fantasy owners: Davis is a nice pitcher for what he is, but don’t bid too much for him.

He pitches to contact—his command was just a 1.8 (which is well below the 2.5 [minimum] that I look for in a starting pitcher). His GO/AO was just 0.78—in combination with his home run rate it appears he is not going to reduce his hr/9 (1.3). It says here that he’ll win 13 games with a 4.20 ERA and 1.40-plus WHIP.

2. Daisuke Matsuzaka, Boston

After Davis, the pickings are really slim.

Dice-K gets the nod here because Ivan Nova is a rookie and both Justin Duchscherer and Jesse Litsch have had trouble even staying on the field (as has Dice-K, but not to the same extent). If healthy, he certainly has the potential to be better than Davis, but the issue has been staying healthy.

Matsuzaka has not lived up to the hype, and it is becoming increasingly obvious he never will. Why? The list goes on and on. Different cultures. Different training methods. Different strike zones. Arm trouble. Inability to throw strikes. Arrogance. Who knows?

The horrible thing is that the talent is there—as such he is a tease who could one day provide a huge dividend to his fantasy owner. But that owner won’t be me!

For fantasy owners: He walks too many hitters (4.3/9IP) and has a disturbingly low Command (1.8) and GO/AO ratio (0.62). He had a low hit rate (29%) and an extremely low strand rate (66%).

It appears some correction in the stats are forthcoming. I can see him winning a dozen games, but he will compile an ERA around 4.50 and WHIP of 1.50.

3. Ivan Nova, New York Yankees

I know the Yankees fans will rate Nova ahead of Matsuzaka, but I cannot get too excited about Nova at this point—10 games do not make a career. He could prove to be better than Dice-K this year, but he also may end up in Triple-A, or with another team.

I was impressed with Nova’s ability to induce grounders (his GO/AO was a robust 1.33), but otherwise he looked very hittable when I saw him pitch.

He was inconsistent from game to game, and he allowed more than a hit per inning pitched and walked too many batters, although he struck out enough hitters that his Command was able to nudge 2.0.

For fantasy owners: His numbers last year were better than his minor league numbers in some regards, so I'm not sure they're sustainable.

He has typically walked too many batters and allowed around one hit per inning pitched and that will not get him especially far in the AL East.

At best, he makes fifteen starts, winning six games and posting a 4.50-plus ERA.

The Yankees will make a trade or re-sign Andy Pettitte and that means Nova will ultimately be playing in the International League.

4. Justin Duchscherer, Baltimore

The former Red Sox farmhand has been routinely brilliant when healthy. Alas, his health (elbow, hip) has kept him off the field for most of the last five years.

Only once in his career did he pitch as many as 140 innings (he was 10-8, 2.54 in 22 starts for the Oakland A’s in 2008). In the other four years since 2006, he pitched a grand total of 100 innings (he missed all of 2009 and was shut down early last year due to hip woes).

He has already been shut down for a week or more in the early days of spring training.

For fantasy owners: Duchscherer would make a nice selection at the end of your auction or draft…even better if you could get him in your reserve rounds. You simply can’t plug him into your rotation and then expect him to remain healthy.

That said, you might be well-advised to grab him and then pair him with prospect Zach Britton. The guess here is the Orioles signed Duchscherer in the hopes of getting a half-season from him and filling a rotation slot while giving Britton more time in Norfolk (Triple-A).

5. Jesse Litsch, Toronto

Litsch had a very solid big league debut in 2007, posting a 7-9 record with a 3.81 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP.

He followed that up with an even better 2008 season, but suffered an elbow injury in 2009 that required Tommy John surgery. Then, after returning to action last year, he suffered a hip injury that shut him down once again.

For fantasy owners: Like Duchscherer, Litsch has to prove he is worth owning in AL-only formats, let alone mixed-leagues.

At this point, it's nearly impossible to determine whether he has value for fantasy owners.

Last year he was largely ineffective in nine starts, but that was likely the lingering effects of his Tommy John surgery. While he is another year removed from his elbow injuries, he now has to deal with the consequences of his hip surgery. He could be worth a flier in your reserve rounds if he shows that he has regained his ability to induce a fair number of ground balls (his GO/AO for 2007-08 was 1.30).