NFL Combine 2011 Results: Winners, Losers and the Mixed Bag
Before anyone gets too excited about the NFL Scouting Combine (ok, it's too late for some of you diehards), realize that statistical numbers, tests and interviews are still secondary to a player's performance on the football field.
Remember defensive end Mike Mamula, the ultimate Combine hero? He did have good production at Boston College but his draft stock soared when he reportedly bench-pressed 225 pounds 26 times, ran a 4.58 in the 40-yard dash, had a vertical of 38.5 inches, and scored 49 out of 50 on the Wonderlic test. As a pro, he was besieged by injuries, but more importantly he was always a step too slow to the quarterback and just didn't generate the same explosion with pads as he did without.
Still, the Combine has probably emerged as a more important element of the offseason draft process than even the post-season all-star games.
In addition, plenty of NFL teams will be wowed by combine numbers much as baseball scouts have long been salivating over the speeds a pitcher reaches and how fast a leadoff hitter can get around the bases.
So, I have compiled a list of winners and losers based on the first few days of the Combine.
Winners fall into the following categories:
1. Players who have exceeded expectations.
2. Players who have tested or put up numbers that are "off the charts" even if they were expected to do well.
3. Lesser known players that have clearly improved their draft stock due to test results, interviews, etc.
Losers fall into the following categories:
1. Players who have fallen short of expectations.
2. Players who have put up troublesome numbers, or have given other troubling indicators (even if it was somewhat expected).
3. Players whose stock has clearly slipped due to a variety of reasons (other players did better, they were hurt during workouts, chose not to run, etc.)
There is one more category for Combine participants which I will call the mixed bag.
Mixed Bag indicates players who have had both positive and negative things happen to them at the Combine.
My primary source for times and testing results will be courtesy of the Great Blue North Draft Report, which seems to have the most accurate and up to the minute results, especially for the defensive backs who are working out as this article is published.
1. Julio Jones
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Winner: So let me get this straight, Alabama's Julio Jones runs a sub 4.4 40, has a 38.5 inch vertical and an 11-3 standing broad jump? Did I mention that he has a broken bone in his foot that will require surgery to boot?
Don't worry about the surgery or the fact that he won't work out anymore before the draft, Jones' performance likely just put him in the top 10 picks and I would be stunned if he fell out of the top 15 overall.
Jones' performance should allay any concerns that he can't go vertical in the NFL.
2. Cameron Newton
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Loser: It's not that Cam Newtown's performance at the combine was awful. A 4.59 time in the 40-yard dash is a very good number for a quarterback. His 38 inch vertical jump and broad jump of 9-11 were very impressive as well.
It's just that these numbers aren't really important for quarterbacks and none of the marks showed the elite athlete that Newton is advertised as.
Far more importantly, while he reportedly showed arm strength in his throwing session, a good portion of his throws were high and off the mark. He also apparently had problems with his three and five-step drops which was predictable for quarterback who is used to operating in the shotgun. Accuracy and an ability to be comfortable in the pocket are obviously critical components for an NFL quarterback and Newton still has questions in both those areas.
His comments earlier in the week about being "an icon and entertainer" didn't help his stock with hard-nosed general managers either.
There was talk of Newton possibly moving into the top three picks after his unofficial workout earlier this year. For now, you can put that talk to rest.
3. Von Miller
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Winner: I am still not completed sold on Miller, but he started to win me over with a 4.53 40, the second fastest clocking of any outside linebacker. Now, I don't view 40-yard dashes as paramount for linebackers (unless their times are incredibly slow) but his effort was darn impressive.
Miller also reportedy had a vertical jump of 37 inches, broad jumped 10 feet six inches, and bench pressed 225 pounds 21 times.
Which brings me to NFL analyst Pat Kirwan and his book, "Take Your Eye Off the Ball". First of all, buy the book, it's an invaluable resource for anybody who loves to learn about football. Second, Kirwan has come up with a formula for an "Explosion Number". If you want front seven football players that have a good chance of success in the NFL, then you want a player to have a high explosion number.
Calculating an explosion number is easy. Add the player's vertical, broad jump and bench press numbers together to get the total. Miller's explosion number is a 68.6 which is a very good mark for an outside linebacker. For comparison, Green Bay Packers' all-world linebacker Clay Matthews had a 68.5 number.
One more thing to consider is that a high explosion number isn't as important for a linebacker as it is for a defensive linemen, especially since the linebacker won't often be lined up directly on a blocker when the ball is snapped. In other words, he'll have space before engaging an offensive player.
The bottom line is that Miller probably doesn't escape being drafted in the first seven picks.
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4. Da 'Quan Bowers
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Mixed Bag: Bowers' decision not to participate in tests and drills in Indianapolis certainly didn't comfirm his status as the number one overall pick in this April's draft, but it probably didn't drop him much either.
Bowers is reportedly recovering from a knee scope and even though he is reportedly healed there was no reason to risk his status in Indianapolis. No defensive lineman set the combine ablaze with their numbers to the point where Bowers will become an afterthought.
Still, it could be a far different story if he performs poorly at his pro day on March 10.
5. Prince Amukamara
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Mixed Bag: One of the consistent knocks on Nebraska cornerback Prince Amukamara has been a perceived lack of recovery speed.
Amukamara reportedly ran in the 4.37 range for the 40-yard dash today. So much for a perceived lack of recovery speed.
However, Amukamara was one of a few cornerbacks who looked to be somewhat stiff in drills. Whereas University of Miami cornerback Brandon Harris posted just a 4.43 time in the 40 but looked exceptionally smooth in all of the position drills.
Amukamara's draft status will be one of the most interesting things to watch on draft day.
6. Ahmad Black
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Loser: No one expected Black to run a fast 40-yard dash time, but when you measure 5-9, 183 pounds, you can't run a 4.74 or 4.78 as is being reported today.
There are draft publications that had Black as a possible second or third rounder, and while I'll admit that you sometimes have to overlook numbers, Black shouldn't be drafted at all, at least not as a safety.
Maybe he can played in limited space as a slot cornerback as some draft services surmise, but I doubt it.
7. Da'Rel Scott
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Winner: Ok, I'll admit I am a little biased on this one. I don't know Da' Rel personally, but he played at Plymouth Whitemarsh High School which is somewhat close to where I grew up. So, I have been familiar with him for years.
I always knew that he had speed. Well, it turns out he actually has a jet engine for legs. Running backs who are not Chris Johnson (who ran an unbelievable 4.24 in 2008) don't run 4.34 40's but that is exactly what Scott did.
Now his history of injuries at Maryland is still a concern, but he likely improved his stock in this draft by at least a round.
I agree with Pro Football Weekly that Scott could be most effective as a kick returner if healthy.
8. Roy Helu
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Mixed Bag: Nebraska running back Roy Helu Jr. was supposed to test well at the Combine and he did in running a 4.42 while weighing in at around 219 pounds. More importantly he reportedly tested better than any other running back in the 20 and 60 yard shuttle runs.
So why a mixed bag and why am I somewhat down on him while up on Scott?
Because scouts are more than aware of Helu's physical attributes and to an extent it just further begs the question of why he did not dominate at Nebraska despite plenty of opportunity and a scheme that arguably padded his stats.
Don't get me wrong, testing well is certainly better than not testing well, but when scouts go back to watch tapes they are going to wonder whether this is the same guy they gawked at in Indianapolis.
9. Akeem Ayers
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Loser: Ayers was considered to a first-round pick by many draft preview services, but he needs to run a better 40 at his pro day. At the Combine he ran a 4.88 and truth be told there are plenty of defensive linemen running faster than that.
I have always thought Ayers' reputation far exceeds his actual abiltiy. He'll have to prove many others wrong now.
10. Marvin Austin
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Winner: North Carolina's Austin didn't play in 2010 because of improper dealings with an agent, so he almost had to workout well at the Combine to improve his draft stock.
Mission accomplished.
Not only did he run a 4.8 40 but was clocked with a 1.63 second 10-yard split which is incredible for a guy that generously tips the scales at 310 pounds. Now consider he put up 38 repitions of 225 pounds in the bench press which was second only to Stephen Pea's absurd 49 lifts.
Austin, who also played well in the post-season all-star games is one of my bets for quickest riser on draft day. I don't think he makes it out of the first round and he might be among the top 20 picks.
11. Nate Solder
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Mixed Bag: Solder might be the very definition of a mixed-bag for NFL scouts and his performance at the Combine was no exception.
On the plus side, he predictably ran well (5.05, second best among offensive tackles) and looked good in drills.
However, at 6'8 and 319 pounds, Solder could only bench press 225 pounds 21 times. This is not a good sign when scouts think you have trouble with base strength and stopping a bull rush.
I feel that Solder will probably slide on draft day and to achieve success he must go to a team that is going to give him time to fill out his frame.
12. Marcus Cannon Vs. Jeremy Beal
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Ok, I wanted to have a little fun with this last one.
I know these student-athletes are trying extremely hard to succeed and many of them have trained ridicously hard to succeed at the Combine.
Still, someone needs to explain to me how a 358 pound Marcus Cannon from TCU can manage to run a 5.26 while Oklahoma defensive lineman Jeremy Beal weighs 90 POUNDS less than Cannon and can only manage to run a 5.16.
Cannon becomes a late first round pick or at worst a second round pick. Beal likely won't be drafted. Based on production and reputation, and before the draft process and Combine began who would have thought that?
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