Roger Federer: Dubai Loss Raises Questions About Decline in His Game

It was painful - again - for me to watch Roger Federer lose another tournament to Novak Djokovic this morning. Djokovic trounced Federer 6-3, 6-3 in the Dubai Tennis Championships and the match didn't seem close most of the time. Last month, Djokovic also beat Federer in the semi-finals of the Australian Open before he defeated Andy Murray in the finals.

As a fan, I love Federer and want him to keep playing at the highest level for as long as possible.  But in the finals of the Dubai event, Federer again appeared more flawed and vulnerable than ever.

This match was much less of a contest than the Federer-Djokovic match at the 2011 Australian Open.  Federer only looked strong during a short spurt in the second set, when he went ahead of Djokovic 3-1, but he regressed into his bad form and Djokovic dominated until the end.

At this point, like all Federer fans and observers, I'm trying to determine if Fed has, in fact, begun to decline, or if he can mount a comeback and make a few key changes in his game to win a few more majors.  I must say that the more I watch him, the more worried I am that his game is spiraling downward - perhaps in slow motion, but still downward. 

I say that after watching Federer play in all the majors for the past few years. The bad trends, unfortunately, are indisputable.   His serve, which had been dominating and such an important piece of his entire game, has become more average.  In fact, in the past year or so, his serve has become even a vulnerability.  His most talented adversaries - Rafael Nadal and Djokovic - have made it a habit to pounce on Fed's second serve and take the offensive in rallies that they're then winning more often.  In today's match, Federer lost a lot of points off his second serve and he often didn't get this first serve in, and when he did, it was quite playable for Djokovic.

Can't Federer practice and get his terrific first serve back?  One would think he'd have a good shot at that.  Unfortunately, he's got other problems.  His backhand, which used to be consistent - even if he didn't use it to hit as many winners - has suddenly become a genuine weakness vs. Djokovic and Nadal.  They both just keep belting the ball deep to Fed's backhand, and, unlike a few years ago, he's hitting far more unforced errors.  Today, as in his Australian Open match against Djokovic, Fed hit a surprisingly high number of wood shots on his backhand.  

At the same time, Federer simply does not hit as many forehands that are either winners or that put his opponents on the defensive.  Djokovic and Nadal, for example, seem able to return many Federer forehands, partly because they've already got him on the defensive before he hits it, or because he's hitting too many forehands back in the middle part of the court.  Lastly, you don't see Fed run around his backhand in order to hit more forehands as often as you used to - and, I think that's a bad thing.  Federer used to appear more "offensive-minded" and "aggressive" on the court and running around his backhand to belt his terrific forehands was a big part of that.  

This brings me to a more surprising, discouraging aspect of Federer's game - his level of confidence and focus.   I've noticed that Federer has often seemed less confident in key parts of matches compared to his attitude several years back.  When pivotal moments arrive in tightening sets, Federer seems to tighten up much more than he used to.  In today's match at Dubai, for instance, after going ahead of Djokovic 3-1 in the second set and experiencing a "surge" in all parts of his game, suddenly, Federer just fell apart and it was 3-3, and, then, the next thing, you knew it was 6-3 Djokovic and the match was over.  Federer never had problems with lapses in his confidence in big matches before, or they were rare.  In the past three years, these lapses have become so common that I'm almost surprised when he wins key sets easily.

I really hope that Federer is honest with himself about how much he need to change his fame in order to stay competitive.  He must keep working hard with his new coach Paul Annacone, former coach to Pete Sampras, if he is to stay close to Nadal and Djokovic.  Annacone has helped Federer to try to shorten rallies, go for winners more often, come up to net more, and not let opponents get him into repeated long rallies.  This is exactly what Federer needs to do to remain a threat.

Federer cannot do all the things he used to.  Some of his opponents - like Djokovic - have caught up to him.   Federer must adjust and keep adjusting more.   Of course, the other strong possibility is that no matter how hard he tries, Federer will keep declining.  That's what happens to all champions in all sports.   Federer has played such a beautiful brand of tennis for so long - and won to many majors - that it's almost impossible to witness him losing repeatedly.  Yet, he has not won a major tournament for a year, and, the way he's playing now, he will not be able to unless he turns back time a bit.