National League: Top 25 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers of 2011
Who will be the top 25 National League fantasy baseball sleepers that you can acquire on draft day in 2011?
Every year, there are a few players who fly under the radar on fantasy draft day. If you're lucky enough to get one of these players on the cheap, they are the type that can propel you toward the top of your fantasy baseball league.
Players like Andres Torres, John Axford, Jaime Garcia and Rod Barajas all could have been grabbed at very favorable prices prior to the start of last year and they all produced big results for their teams and their fantasy owners.
First, let me set some parameters for who qualifies as a National League fantasy sleeper. Most fantasy leagues begin with a $265 operating budget. In order for me to consider a player as a sleeper, he must be less than 5 percent of your team's budget. In our $265 league, therefore, the maximum is $12.
I am also working on the assumption of a 12 team league with 23 total players on each team. There are 14 position players on offense and nine pitchers.
In addition, this article is focused on fantasy leagues that are National League only. However, I will mention whether a player is worth buying in mixed leagues.
25. Allen Craig, St. Louis Cardinals, 3B/OF
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Allen Craig can flat out hit. The St. Louis Cardinals need to find a way to get him into the lineup on a regular basis. He is currently slated as a backup at third base behind David Freese and also a reserve outfielder.
An important key for Cardinals manager Tony LaRussa will be Craig's defense. When he first came up to the Major Leagues, Craig had problems at third base throwing the ball. He is also not a natural outfielder and doesn't look smooth out there. Nevertheless, if Craig doesn't butcher plays at either position, he will get his share of at-bats.
In 2009 at AAA Memphis, Allen Craig hit .322 with 26 home runs and 83 RBI in 472 at-bats. Last year, Craig split time between Memphis and St. Louis. He hit .320 with 14 home runs and 81 RBI in only 306 at-bats at the AAA level.
In St. Louis last season, Craig hit .246 with four home runs and 18 RBI in only 114 at-bats. In 2011, I believe Craig could see between 300 and 350 at-bats. If this is the case, his average should increase to the .260-.270 range and I would expect 15 home runs and around 55 RBI.
Allen Craig is best suited for National League-only fantasy leagues and you should be able to pick him up for below $4.00. Anything under that price will be a good buy and will give your team decent production for a bargain. Craig, who is 26 years old, is poised to take a big positive step in his career.
24. Matt Lindstrom, Colorado Rockies, RP
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The Colorado Rockies made a wise move to bolster their bullpen when they got Matt Lindstrom. He will start the season as a setup man and provide the Rockies with valuable insurance if their top closer, Huston Street, goes down to injury as he did in 2010.
Huston Street missed over two months to start last season due to shoulder problems. Then he also had issues late in the season due to an injured oblique. In determining whether you want to spend any of your fantasy budget on Matt Lindstrom, you really need to consider what you think about Huston Street.
If you believe there's a good chance that Street will have more injury issues in 2011, then Lindstom is a good pickup. I personally think there's a decent likelihood that Street will incur some problems, which makes Lindstrom a viable acquisition.
In 2010, Lindstrom's overall numbers were not good. He had a 4.39 ERA and a bloated WHIP ratio of 1.650. He struck out 43 batters in 53 1/3 innings pitched. However, Lindstrom did manage to collect a very respectable 23 saves for the Astros.
Buying Matt Lindstrom is a risky proposition, because his numbers aren't all that good. Nevertheless, I believe Lindstrom is worth a bid of up to $3 as Huston Street insurance. In addition, if your league allows for you to keep players in a reserve status, Lindstrom would be an ideal candidate, as you could then activate him if Street goes down.
23. Ryan Hanigan, Cincinnati Reds, C
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Sometimes, in fantasy baseball, all you want from your No. 2 catcher is not to mess up your team batting average. Ryan Hanigan will do far better than that, and the fact that Ramon Hernandez is the Reds' No. 1 catcher means Hanigan will be inexpensive.
In 2010, Hanigan played in slightly less than half of the games at 70. He got 203 at bats and hit for a .300 batting average. His five home runs aren't much, but he did have 40 RBI. Although Hanigan may not hit .300 in 2011, he should be very respectable.
In a National League-only fantasy league, you should be able to acquire Hanigan for less than $4. At the catcher position where you worry that your catcher will hit .220 and hurt your team batting average, Ryan Hanigan is a smart acquisition.
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22. Ben Francisco, Philadelphia Phillies, Outfielder
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Ben Francisco is locked in a tight battle for the starting right field job in Philadelphia with prized prospect Domonic Brown. The veteran Francisco is currently the leader in spring training, although that could rapidly change if Brown puts together a few good games.
At 29 years old and entering his fifth Major League season, now is the time for Francisco to emerge as an every day player. The Phillies will give Brown several chances, however, as they felt so good about him, they let Jayson Werth go and did not acquire another starting outfielder in the offseason.
In 2010, Brown hit only .210 in 62 at bats with the Phillies as a late season call up. There is a question as to whether he's ready to be an every day player in the Majors. The 23-year-old Brown is liable to have his ups and downs this year, which will give Ben Francisco an opportunity to play.
I believe the Phillies will likely start the season in a platoon situation, with Francisco starting against left handed pitchers. If he's successful and Brown struggles, Francisco will also see at-bats against right-handers.
In 2010, in 179 at bats with the Phillies, Francisco hit .268 with six home runs and 28 RBI. He also added in eight stolen bases and should reach double digits in steals with more playing time. To expect Ben Francisco to have 10 home runs and 45-50 RBI is a solid projection for 2011.
I believe you should be able to acquire Francisco for $8 or less in a National League-only draft. He would make a solid fourth or fifth outfielder for your fantasy team.
21. Chris Iannetta, Colorado Rockies, C
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Chris Iannetta had an abysmal season in 2010. He split time with Miguel Olivo behind the plate and as the season progressed, he played less and less.
In 61 games with the Rockies, Iannetta hit just .197 with nine home runs and 27 RBI in 188 at-bats. With Olivo off to the Seattle Mariners, Colorado is hoping that Iannetta will rediscover the promise he showed in the prior two seasons. They have him penciled in as the starter for this coming year.
2008 was Iannetta's best season, as he hit .264 with 18 home runs and 65 RBI. These are outstanding numbers for a catcher. In 2009, although Iannetta hit just .228, he did have 16 home runs and 52 RBI.
A key benefit for Iannetta is that his batting coach, Carney Lansford, will be back for the 2011 season. Lansford was the hitting instructor for Iannetta in 2007 and seemed to get him on track for his breakout season in 2008. This could also boost Iannetta's confidence, which he totally lost in 2010.
Coming off the poor season in 2010, Iannetta should also be fairly cheap. Even in a National League-only draft, you should still be able to get him for $8 or less. He would also be a viable No. 2 catcher in mixed league formats and should go for less than $4.
Colorado has no other proven options at the catcher position, so Iannetta should get a fairly long leash to start the season. He will be 28 years old early in the 2011 campaign and if he gets off to a decent start, expect him to have a good year.
I project something along the line of a .240-.250 batting average with 18-20 home runs and 60 RBI. If Chirs Iannetta does that, you will be very pleased with your investment.
20. Brett Wallace, Houston Astros, 1B
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Brett Wallace has been with four organizations since 2008, when he broke into the Majors with the St. Louis Cardinals' minor league system. In addition to St. Louis, Wallace went to Oakland, then Toronto and now the Houston organization.
Brett Wallace has always had great potential as a hitter. It's quite surprising that he has moved around so much. His minor league stats are very good. In 2009, in 532 at-bats, Wallace hit 20 home runs with 63 RBI.
In 2010, Wallace split time between Las Vegas in the Toronto organization and was later traded to the Houston Astros. At the AAA level in Las Vegas, Wallace hit .301 with 18 home runs and 61 RBI in 385 at-bats.
In 51 games last season with the Astros, Wallace hit only .222 with two home runs and eight RBI in 144 at-bats. The Astros and Wallace are hoping that he will find stability in Houston and will blossom as a Major League hitter in 2011.
There are two keys for Wallace in 2011. First, he must hit at the Major League level and secondly, Carlos Lee must be able to continue playing left field for Houston. Lee played some first base last year and if he is unable to play left field due to his age and weight, the Astros will likely move him back to first base. This will cost Wallace his job and could send him packing again.
Brett Wallace has a big upside and you should be able to acquire him in a National League draft for less than $10. At this price, Wallace is worth the risk.
19. Josh Thole, New York Mets, C
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Josh Thole is a solid No. 2 fantasy catcher option for your National League fantasy team. Thole generally puts the bat on the ball and hit .277 in 202 at-bats.
Thole will split time behind the plate with Ronny Paulino in 2011. He has never hit for a lot of power, but his career Major League average is .286.
Thole is only 24 years old, so there is some probability that his power will increase. I project Thole to hit around .280 in 2011, with seven home runs and 35-40 RBI. These numbers aren't anything spectacular, but Thole is not the dreaded catcher that hits .210 and torches your batting team average.
You should be able to acquire Thole in a National League-only format for less than $5.
18. Jason Motte, St. Louis Cardinals, RP
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The main question you need to ask is whether you believe Ryan Franklin will be the closer for the Cardinals throughout 2011. If the answer is yes, then don't pick up Jason Motte.
Ryan Franklin will be 38 years old when the 2011 season begins. His ERA jumped from 1.92 in 2009 to 3.46 last season. Franklin did have an excellent WHIP ratio of 1.031 to go along with his 27 saves in 2010.
Franklin is not a strike out pitcher and at age 38, can he still be counted on as the closer for the Cardinals? My bet is no. I think age or injury will catch up to Franklin and this is where Jason Motte comes in.
Motte is a hard throwing power pitcher, much more in the typical closer mode than Franklin. In 2010, Jason Motte threw 52 1/3 innings and had 54 strike outs. His ERA was a solid 2.24 with a good WHIP of 1.127.
Even if he doesn't close for St. Louis, Jason Motte still gives you good strike out totals, along with a solid ERA and WHIP ratio. However, I do believe that Motte will be the closer by the All-Star break. If this is the case, you will collect 15-20 saves for 2011.
The fact that Franklin will open the season as the St. Louis closer means that you can pick up Motte at a low price. Jason Motte would go for less than $6, even in a National League-only format. That's a very good speculative investment.
17. Michael Morse, Washington Nationals, Outfielder
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Michael Morse is battling Roger Bernadina and Rick Ankiel for playing time in a crowded left field for the Washington Nationals. With newly acquired Jayson Werth in right field and incumbent Nyjer Morgan in center field, the only open spot is in left.
Realistically, until one of these three emerges as the every day starter, we are likely to see a platoon situation. Morse is the only right-handed hitter of the bunch and should start against southpaws. If he produces, there's a chance he will earn more at-bats against right-handed pitching also.
I believe that Morse, who will be 29 when the season opens, has a greater upside than either Ankiel or Bernadina. In 2010, he hit .289 with 15 home runs and 41 RBI in only 266 at bats. Morse should reach those numbers again in 2011 and could go 25 percent higher if he gets regular playing time.
Morse would be a solid acquisition in National League-only formats as your fourth or fifth outfielder. Given the glut of outfielder in Washington, you should be able to get him for no more than $8.
16. J.A. Happ, Houston Astros, SP
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The Houston Astros acquired left-handed pitcher J.A. Happ from the Phillies in the Roy Oswalt deal. Happ will be a mainstay in the starting rotation for the Astros, which should help him.
The key for Happ in 2011 will be his health. He missed three months of last year due to an elbow injury. If healthy, Happ is a good option for the lower end of your National League fantasy pitching staff.
In 2010, J.A. Happ made 16 starts and had a record of 6-4, with a very good ERA of 3.40. He struck out 70 in 87 1/3 innings. I also like the fact that he only gave up 73 hits over those innings.
Happ's biggest problem in 2010 was his control. He walked 47, which is more than 4.8 per every nine innings pitched. His WHIP ratio of 1.374 could be a lot better if not for all of the bases on balls.
I believe you can acquire Happ for below the $12 cut off point I mentioned for a sleeper. If he's healthy, he can win 10 or more games and is likely to have 140-150 strike outs. If Happ can keep his ERA below 3.65 and lower his walks allowed, he could easily have a WHIP ratio of 1.32, which is a very solid number.
In a National League-only format, I would not pay any more than the $12 for J.A. Happ, as the Astros will have trouble winning games. Happ is also a viable option in mixed leagues, but here again, I would not spend more than $7 for him.
15. Clint Barmes, Houston Astros, 2B
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Clint Barmes moves from one hitter's park in Colorado to another one in Houston. He is hoping to bounce back after a down year in 2010. Houston may just be the place for him to do it.
Barmes will be the starting second baseman for the Astros and at 31 years old, knows that he needs to produce in order to continue as an every day player. In 2010, Barmes hit only .235 with eight home runs and 50 RBI in 387 at-bats.
Clint Barmes has shown a lot of power for a middle infielder in years past. In 2009, playing regularly, he clubbed 23 homers with 76 RBI. Playing in Houston with the short Crawford Boxes in left field, Barmes has the potential to hit 20 home runs again.
You should be able to acquire Barmes for $10 or less in a National League format. If he can hit 15-20 home runs for you, that will be a tremendous investment for a middle infielder.
14. Jonny Venters, Atlanta Braves, RP
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Jonny Venters burst onto the scene in 2010 about as dramatically as his blazing fastball. Venters emerged as a very reliable left-handed setup man for the Braves last year. He has electric stuff and a gritty make up to go along with it.
With Billy Wagner gone, it appears that Atlanta will go with Craig Kimbrel as their primary closer, with Venters closing in specific situations against left-handed hitters. However, Kimbrel has only thrown 20 2/3 innings in the Major Leagues, so he is far from proven.
Jonny Venters threw 83 innings for Atlanta in his first season with the big club. He was very impressive with a 4-4 record, 1.95 ERA, 1.205 WHIP and 93 strikeouts. He will undoubtedly get some opportunities to close and if Kimbrel has any problems, could easily become the No. 1 closer for the Braves.
If Venters backs up Kimbrel as the closer, he should still get somewhere around 10 saves. There is great upside if he takes over the main job and his strikeout totals are excellent.
In a National League-only fantasy league, I would definitely be willing to go to the $12 mark with Venters. He also has value in mixed leagues due to his strikeout volume, low ERA and the potential for saves.
13. Will Venable, San Diego Padres, Outfielder
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Will Venable put up some decent numbers in 2010 and has increased his production in each of his last three years. At 28 years old, Venable is in the prime of his career and I expect him to continue his upward trend.
In 2010, Venable hit 13 home runs with 51 RBI in 392 at-bats. He also stole a career high 29 bases. The only weak area for Venable was his .245 batting average.
The 2011 outlook for Venable is bright. I project Venable to hit 16-18 home runs and 60-70 RBI. He should also add in 25-30 steals for you.
Fantasy owners will shy away from Venable because he plays half his games in San Diego. Petco Park is one of the toughest fields to hit for power in the National League. That should help keep Venable's fantasy price down.
If you can get Will Venable for under $12 as your number four outfielder, that would be a steal. Stolen bases are one of the most over-priced categories in fantasy baseball. Venable will give you those steals, along with some power in his bat.
I would also be willing to have Will Venable as my fifth outfielder for a $5 or less investment in a dual league format.
12. Daniel Murphy, New York Mets, 2B
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Daniel Murphy had an injury riddled 2010 and it was a lost year for him. In the past, he has played first base and in the outfield for the Mets. He will now get a real chance to become the second baseman for the Mets.
If Daniel Murphy can make a successful transition to second base, the Mets will have immediately upgraded their offense. The incumbent second baseman in New York, Luis Castillo, is one of the weakest starting fantasy middle infielders out there.
Castillo has virtually no power, but early in his career was a good base stealer. Now, at age 35, Castillo cannot run like he used to. In 2010, Castillo hit just .235 with no home runs, 17 RBI and only eight steals. As you can see, the Mets need a major upgrade at this position.
If Daniel Murphy can handle the job and stay healthy, it will mean a sizable upgrade for the Mets at second base. In 2009, Murphy hit .266 with 12 home runs and 63 RBI. The Mets are hoping that Murphy can duplicate these numbers.
In a National League-only draft, you should be able to acquire Murphy for $10 or less.
11. Drew Storen, Washington Nationals, RP
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Drew Storen made his Major League debut in May of 2010. He impressed the Washington brass with his excellent stuff and composure on the mound.
Storen will compete with Henry Rodriguez and Sean Burnett for saves in Washington. I fully expect that Storen will get the lion's share of the save chances in Washington. This is important because the Nationals may not win many games.
Although he didn't join the Nationals until May 17, Drew Storen still appeared in 54 games, throwing 55 1/3 innings. Storen was 4-4 with five saves and an ERA of 3.58. His WHIP ratio was 1.265 and he struck out 52 against 22 walks.
Storen's strike out total was very good, nearly one per inning, but he can reduce his number of walks. The Nationals were so enamored with Storen that they traded veteran closer Matt Capps to Minnesota.
Storen will be a good number two closer for your National League fantasy team. I would go up to $12 and maybe even a little more for him. In mixed league formats, Storen also has value and can probably be had for $7 or less.
10. Alex Gonzalez, Atlanta Braves, SS
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Will the real Alex Gonzalez please stand up. He split the 2010 season with Toronto, then came to Atlanta in the Yunel Escobar trade. He had a career year in 2010 with 23 home runs and 88 RBI while batting .250. At 34 years old, it is unlikely that Gonzalez will reach those power totals again.
In 2009, Alex Gonzalez split time with the Reds and Red Sox and hit .238 with only eight home runs and 41 RBI. The prior year, Gonzalez did not play at all due to injury.
The price for Alex Gonzalez in your fantasy league will depend on where he's brought up in the auction. Even in a National League-only format, he could go as high as $18, or possibly as low as $8. I believe if you can get Gonzalez for $12 or less, he's worth the risk.
As the starter for the Braves, he will get 500 or more at-bats, barring injury. That is not a certainty, however, as Gonzalez has had injuries in the past and at 34 years of age, does not have the body of a youngster.
If Gonzalez stays healthy, I would expect a batting average between .240-.250, with 16-18 home runs and 65-75 RBI. He would make a decent middle infielder for any National League-only fantasy team.
9. Jose Lopez, Colorado Rockies, 2B
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The Rockies are hoping a change of scenery to Colorado agrees with Jose Lopez. He comes to the Rockies after spending the past seven seasons in Seattle. The Mariners deemed him expendable following a poor 2010 season, where Lopez hit just .239 with 10 home runs and 58 RBI.
At age 27, however, Jose Lopez should be entering the prime of his career. Although 2010 was a down year for Lopez, his prior two seasons with Seattle in 2008 and 2009 were very good. Lopez averaged 21 home runs and 92 RBI, while hitting .280 over those two years.
Because 2010 was poor, Lopez could be a bargain in the upcoming fantasy draft. I believe you have a good chance to get him in a National League only format for $10 or less. I would even go as high as $12 if necessary. Lopez also has value in mixed leagues as a middle infielder for $8 or less.
Colorado, with their spacious outfield, should help Lopez' batting average. If his power numbers return, which is quite probable in Colorado, he could have an excellent year. I do expect Jose Lopez to rebound in 2011. He is likely to hit .280-.290, with 18-20 home runs and roughly 80 RBI. Those are very strong numbers for a second baseman.
8. Xavier Nady, Arizona Diamondbacks, OF/1B
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After coming off two very subpar seasons, Xavier Nady may have found a home in Arizona. He provides a veteran presence and some leadership to the very young Diamondbacks squad. The key now is whether Nady can stay healthy and produce.
I do not expect Nady to hit .305 with 25 home runs and drive in 97 runs like he did in 2008. He should, however, do a lot better than he did in 2010, when he hit .256 with only six home runs and 33 RBI in 317 at-bats with the Cubs.
The Diamondbacks have one outfield position and also first base open, where Nady can fit in. I expect him to start the year in left field and get regular playing time. If Nady stays healthy, he should get 400-450 at-bats and its not unreasonable to expect him to hit .275 with 16-18 home runs and 60-70 RBI.
You should be able to get Nady for between the $7 to $10 mark in a National League-only draft auction. If he produces as expected, that will prove to be a very solid acquisition.
7. Joel Hanrahan, Pittsburgh Pirates, RP
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Joel Hanrahan will get the first chance to close for the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2011. He was given a chance in the past, but struggled. Hanrahan will be on a short leash and will need to perform well to keep his job.
Hanrahan has an amazing strikeout to innings pitched ratio, as he whiffed 100 hitters in 69 2/3 innings. The ability to get the big strikeout when he needs it was the main reason the Pirates chose Hanrahan over Evan Meek.
Hanrahan started 2010 slowly, which is why his ERA is a bit inflated at 3.62. His WHIP ratio was a career best 1.206.
The Pittsburgh Pirates are not likely to win too many games, so Hanrahan's save opportunities will be limited. Nevertheless, even closers for the worst teams can get 25-30 saves. As a number two fantasy closer option, Hanrahan can get you those 25 extra saves. In addition, his strikeout totals are very attractive for a reliever.
Hanrahan is likely to go for $12 or maybe even a little bit more in a National League-only format. I would be willing to pay that price and would be expecting at least 15-20 saves and 75-90 strikeouts. If Joel Hanrahan accomplishes these numbers, which are quite plausible, that will be money well spent.
In a mixed league format, I would be willing to spend about $7 or $8 for Hanrahan, but no more. There is a risk with Hanrahan, so be careful.
6. Travis Wood, Cincinnati Reds, SP
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Travis Wood is competing with Homer Bailey and Mike Leake for one of the remaining two spots in the Cincinnati starting rotation. I'm banking on Wood winning one of those two remaining spots.
Of the three pitchers, Wood has several factors balanced in his favor. First off, he is the only left-handed pitcher that could make the Reds' starting staff. His 2010 ERA and WHIP were substantially lower than Bailey or Leake. In addition, Wood has started out in spring training throwing the ball well.
Travis Wood joined the Reds in the middle of the 2010 season and started 17 games. He was very impressive, as he gave up only 85 hits in 102 2/3 innings pitched. Wood had an ERA of 3.51 and a very good WHIP ratio of 1.081. I also liked his strikeout to walk totals, as he struck out 86 and allowed only 26 walks.
At 24 years of age, Wood is still very young and half a season does not a career make. Nevertheless, he has a good upside and should win plenty of games being supported by a potent Cincinnati offense.
In a National League-only format, I would definitely go up to $12 for Travis Wood, although I think you may be able to get him for less. I would also be happy with him in a mixed league for $7 or $8.
5. Neil Walker, Pittsburgh Pirates, 2B
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Neil Walker is another one of Pittsburgh's rising young stars. With Walker, Pedro Alvarez, Andrew McCutchen and Jose Tabata, the Pirates have a young nucleus from which to build.
The 25-year-old Walker had a breakout year in 2010. He hit .296 with 12 home runs and 66 RBI in 426 at-bats. He also led the Pirates in slugging percentage, which was largely due to his 29 doubles. If Walker gets between 500 to 600 at bats in 2011, which he should, he will continue to improve.
I fully expect Walker to hit .285 with a jump in his power numbers. He is fully capable of 15-20 home runs and 80-90 RBI in 2011.
If you can acquire Neil Walker for anything less than $12 in a National League-only format, jump all over this one. He also has value in a mixed league format, more likely in the $5-$6 range.
4. Tim Stauffer, San Diego Padres, SP
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In four prior seasons in San Diego, Tim Stauffer had a very undistinguished performance. Then, in 2010, something suddenly clicked in for Stauffer.
Tim Stauffer made 32 appearances and seven starts down the stretch for the Padres. In all, he threw 82 2/3 innings and gave up only 65 hits. His WHIP of 1.077 and ERA of 1.85 were fantastic. Stauffer is in the mix for a job in the starting rotation in 2011. Based on his performance in 2010, he should win his spot.
The only knock on Stauffer is that he is not a big strikeout pitcher. His 61 strikeouts are adequate, but not dominant. He averages just under seven strikeouts per every nine innings pitched.
Although I do not expect Stauffer to achieve the same types of numbers in 2011, he has proved to be a reliable pitcher. The fact that he will also pitch half of his games in the spacious Petco Park is also a big advantage for Stauffer.
If Stauffer wins a starting job for the coming season, I expect him to throw 170-190 innings. He has a chance to win 10 games and my projections are for him to have an ERA around 3.20 with 135-140 strikeouts and a WHIP of 1.25. These are very solid numbers for any number four of five starter.
You should be able to acquire Tim Stauffer in a National League-only draft for $7 to $10. He would also be a good pick up in a mixed league format for around $5. The added benefit that Stauffer provides as a fourth or fifth starter on your fantasy roster is that he is unlikely to implode and hurt you.
3. Jose Tabata, Pittsburgh Pirates, Outfielder
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Jose Tabata had a very solid rookie year with the Pirates and at only 22 years of age, should continue to get better. At this stage of his career, Tabata does not have a lot of power, but he does have excellent speed and a good batting stroke.
Tabata played in 102 games and had 405 at-bats in 2010. Heading into the 2011 season, Tabata could play upwards of 150 games in the outfield for the Pirates, He's also slated to bat lead off or in the number two spot in the batting order, which should give him 600 at-bats.
With the increased playing time and at-bats, Tabata's speed will become even more of a factor for your fantasy league team. In 2010, he batted .299 with four home runs and 35 RBI. However, he also scored 61 runs and stole 19 bases.
In 2011, it would be fair to project that Tabata hits .305 with nine home runs and 50-60 RBI. Jose Tabata will also make an impact on the bases. I expect him to score 85-90 runs and collect close to 30 steals.
Jose Tabata will likely be a $10-$12 player in a National League-only format. I would be willing to go a couple of dollars higher if you need his speed on your team. Tabata also has value in mixed league formats because of his steals and runs scored.
2. Seth Smith, Colorado Rockies, Outfielder
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Seth Smith is poised for a major break through in 2011. At 28 years old, he is in the prime of his career. With the departure of Brad Hawpe, Smith is slated to be the full time starter in left field for the Rockies.
In 2010, Smith hit 17 home runs and had 52 RBI in 358 at bats. His average fell off to .246 after hitting .293 in 2009. The reason for this was his .154 average against left-handed pitching. If the left-handed hitting Smith fails to hit lefties again, he will lose playing time in a platoon situation with Ryan Spilborghs.
The fact that there are more right-handed pitchers will still give Smith plenty of at-bats, even if he does fall into a platoon situation. I do expect Smith to improve his hitting against left-handed pitching and that will be critical for him if he hopes to become an every day player.
You should be able to acquire Seth Smith in a National League-only fantasy league for around the $10 mark. He also has value in mixed leagues for around $6 or $7.
Smith should get between 400-500 at bats in 2011 and I expect him to take the next step forward. Look for Seth Smith to hit .280 with 20-25 home runs and 70-75 RBI in 2011. If he does this, you will be very happy with your investment.
1. Pedro Alvarez, Pittsburgh Pirates, 3B
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Pedro Alvarez had his first season in the Major Leagues in 2010. He had his ups and downs, but his overall body of work was impressive for his rookie year.
A powerful 24-year-old, Alvarez looks to improve on his 2010 campaign where he hit .256 with 16 home runs and 64 RBI. Last year was an excellent learning experience for Alvarez and the expectation is for him to continue to develop in all phases of the game.
My projection for Pedro Alvarez in 2011 is for him to hit about .267 and have 24 home runs and 78-84 RBI. Alvarez will benefit from hitting behind McCutchen, Tabata and Neil Walker. This should give him plenty of opportunities with men on base.
In addition, the jump in power numbers I foresee is based on his increased maturity, both physically and with plate discipline.
The Pirates will not likely contend in 2011 because their pitching staff is not strong enough, so Alvarez will get plenty of opportunities to fight through any slumps he may have. I expect a break out season for the former number two overall pick in the 2008 amateur draft.
Pedro Alvarez is likely to go for around $10-$12 in a National League fantasy format. I would be willing to go even $3 or $4 higher, as there are not many third basemen in the National League that can give you the kind of power that Alvarez displays.
Alvarez is also valuable in mixed league formats and would be a good acquisition in the $5 to $6 range. Being that there are more big hitting third basemen in the American League, you should be able to pick him up for that price in mixed league formats.
May Your National League Fantasy Team Stay Healthy
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I hope that you have enjoyed this look at the top 25 fantasy baseball sleepers in the National League. Although this piece focused on National League only fantasy leagues, there is valuable insight for mixed league players also.
These 25 players can help to ensure that your team has good balance and there are no gaping holes. Anytime you can get solid production from the last few spots on your fantasy roster, that can make a huge difference.
My typical strategy in a National League-only format is to go ahead and spend the big money on true difference makers. Secondly, you must do your research and look to acquire some of these types of quality sleeper candidates.
You also want to take a look at the relative strength at the different positions and determine if there are good secondary or tertiary options if the bidding gets too high for your first option.
Second base is a prime example. There is a big gap between the top few second basemen and the rest of the pack. After Utley, Uggla, Phillips and Kelly Johnson, there is a large drop off. Make sure you have one of those top four, or else be sure to offset that weakness with studs at other positions.
On the other hand, the talent at first base is deep. You have the tier one players like Pujols, Votto, Howard and Fielder. However, if you look at the next tier of LaRoche, Huff, Ike Davis and Gaby Sanchez, there's not a huge drop off, but you can save a ton of money.
Finally, be very wary of injury prone players. I like to stay away from them totally. Nothing destroys a fantasy team quicker than having a bunch of players on the disabled list.
Good luck with your fantasy team and have a fun season!
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