EPL: 2010/11 Relegation Roundup, Who Will Survive?
The current EPL season has been one of the most competitive in English Premier League history. In recent years, it has been quite obvious who will be fighting for top flight survival by the 25 match mark. With the fight usually narrowed down to 4 or 5 clubs at this time of the season, the relegation battle does not heat up until the final month of the season.
This year has been the exception; with the entire bottom half of the table separated by only a few points. West Ham and Wolverhampton currently sit at the bottom of the table at 25 points apiece, while Blackburn sits at the 11th position with 33 points. Despite math never being one of my strong suits, it’s easy to see that a few wins or losses can mean the difference between a respectable mid-table finish and the unenviable step down to the Championship.
With the league starting to wind down towards the final 10 matches (barring any more blizzards), it’s a perfect time to take a look at each team in the bottom half of the table and how they’ll fare over the coming weeks.
10. Blackburn Rovers (Current League Position: 11)
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Blackburn, for the most part, has had a campaign well within preseason expectations so far. The Rovers have put up a respectable number of results over the first half of the season with the exception of a nightmare 7-1 away loss to Manchester United. However, the Rovers have only 2 wins and 1 draw since the start of 2011; with a poor showing against woeful Wigan Athletic negating a well-earned victory against Liverpool (which happened to be Roy Hodgson’s last match for the Reds).
The downturn in form is somewhat expected with the surprising exit of respected manager Sam Allardyce shortly after the club’s takeover by new owners Venky’s. Allardyce was greatly respected, not only in the clubhouse, but throughout the league. New manager, Steve Kean, should be able to warrant his quick appointment from interim to permanent manager of the club if he keeps Blackburn near the middle of the table. If they drop closer to relegation zone in the coming week, new owners could face severe fan backlash for the expulsion of the more experienced Allardyce.
Blackburn should be able to maintain their position if the defensive partnership of Samba and Nelsen stays healthy. They are the longest serving centeback pairing in the league at the moment, and despite the emergence of Phil Jones (used more as a midfielder before his recent injury spell), their experience at the back with veteran keeper Paul Robinson will be essential to maintaining a mid-table finish. Blackburn possesses one of the worst strike forces in the league in terms of goals scored and their ability to score on set pieces have saved the team on several occasions this season.
The addition of Jermaine Jones combined with Keith Andrews starting to regain form after a lengthy injury spell will also help a team that has suffered long stretches of poor play from the central midfield positions. Meanwhile, the recent return of Roque Santa Cruz (on loan for Manchester City) will hopefully help the experienced international regain his form as well as help Blackburn in find the back of the net on a more regular basis
Final Analysis: Blackburn should stay up close to the middle of the table. They perform well at home, and half their matches for the remainder of the season take place at Ewood Park. A better showing on the road over the final stretch will also help a team with big plans during the upcoming summer transfer window. A poor showing towards the end of the season, though, will make it hard to attract big names no matter what wages are promised by the new ownership.
9. Blackpool (Current League Position: 12)
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Blackpool has been the biggest surprise of the current Premier League season. At one point they were sitting amongst clubs in the top half of the table that have players with wages bigger than Blackpool’s entire club salary combined. Charlie Adam and DJ Campbell have been revelations this season, putting in one good performance after another. The club was extremely lucky to retain Adam’s services despite approaches made by big-money clubs like Liverpool during the recent winter transfer window. Richard Kingson has been one of the most consistent goalkeepers in the top flight for most of the season. Meanwhile, manager Ian Holloway has done a spectacular job of coaching a club, which appears on paper, no better than most teams at the bottom of the Championship.
The club has performed well against the clubs that surround them in the standings at the moment, but have struggled against bigger clubs. They have upset Liverpool 2-1 in both meetings this season and a recent 3-1 victory over Tottenham at home has help raise the hopes of a side that has not recorded a victory since the beginning of the new year. Otherwise, they have struggled to win against any of the current clubs residing at the top of the table; most notably blowing a 2-0 lead at home to Manchester United and losing 3-2 last month.
Final Analysis: Blackpool is by no means safe. They are not a very deep squad and as the season winds down, it’ll be hard for them to string a lot of consistent performances together against the more experienced clubs. A victory against Wolverhampton this weekend will greatly help their cause, but they still have several games with the big clubs over the coming weeks where any points gained will be essential to survival. The most likely scenario for the club is to finish close to the relegation zone or lower, but if the team starts to play better defense while Adam and company maintains their fine form, they should survive to fight it out in the top flight again next season.
8. Fulham (Current League Position: 13)
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The Cottagers have performed well below expectations for a good part of this season’s first half, especially after an impressive display over the previous two campaigns. An appearance in last year’s Europa Cup Final being the highpoint of a club revival underneath then manager, Roy Hodgson. However, Fulham did not strengthen what was already considered a small squad by league standards; with the exception of striker Moussa Dembele and defender Carlos Salcido to replace outgoing left-back Paul Konchesky.
The loss of top scorer Bobby Zamora early in the season hurt an already thin attacking crew. Combined with Hodgson moving on to Liverpool and the uncertainty of new manager Mark Hughes being able to rebound from his nightmare tenure at Manchester City, the team spent most of the early part of the season near the bottom of the table. The added anxiety of possibly losing top keeper Mark Schwarzer to Arsenal near the end of the summer window did not help matters.
Fulham has been performing much better in recent weeks, most notably due to the spectacular form midfielder, Clint Dempsey. The American is having his best season in the Premier League this campaign scoring 9 goals to make up to injuries up top. The return of Dembele from a short injury spell has also helped things on the attacking end with veteran strikers Johnson and Kamara struggling to maintain good form.
Final Analysis: Fulham will most likely finish near the middle of the table. Zamora is starting to work towards regaining full match fitness, while the team has brought in Eidur Gudjohnsen on loan from Stoke City to bolster their attacking options. Veteran midfielders Damien Duff and Danny Murphy have been looking more like their usual selves in recent weeks, while solid defensive display by Hughes and Hangeland should not be understated. Fulham will be lucky to hold onto Dempsey during the upcoming summer transfer window, but the chances of watching them down below in the Championship season are pretty slim.
7. Everton (Current League Position: 14)
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The blue half of the Merseyside has, well, been sadly blue for good chunks of the current campaign. Like Fulham, the Toffees had high expectations going into the current season with respectfully high finishes over the previous two campaigns. Sadly, David Moyes has had a hard time putting out a side that can simply win. Everton has blown more leads than anybody this season, and has had 3 points turn into 1 on several occasions.
They are by no means a bad team, especially on paper, but seem to have suffered from a severe case of bad luck. The Toffees have been atrocious on the road, recording only two victories away from Goodison Park, while only being marginally better at home. Tim Cahill has been spectacular filling in up top for a club whose attacking options has struggled to find top form, and leads the club in goals scored (9); despite missing a good chunk of games due to Australia’s appearance in this year’s Asian Cup. The addition of the largely untested Jermaine Beckford instead of a more experienced striker for the club has produced few goals. Otherwise, it is hard to place the blame on the club’s current standing on any one player since the team’s underachievement seems to be team-wide issue.
Final Analysis: Everton has the experience to finish higher up on the table, but they may have to settle for the middle part of the bottom half this season. Having more games at home instead of the road over the final stretch of the season will help, but putting together a string of two or three good performances (especially victories instead of draws) no matter what the name of the pitch is will help them finish much higher. Their recent FA Cup victory over Chelsea should also be a good sign of things to come.
6. Birmingham City (Current League Position: 15)
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The Midlands club has had a hard time repeating their stellar form from last season that saw them finish in the top half their first year back in the Premier League. They boast the embarrassing record of being the worst goal-scoring side in the league with only 25 goals scored. New signing Nikola Zigic was an embarrassing sight on the pitch during his first three months in the league, viewed by many as a 6 foot, 7 ½ inch waste of space. Combined with Cameron Jerome being the only properly fit striker for most of the season, and it’s no surprise how hard it has been for Birmingham to find the back of the net this year. Lee Bowyer not being able to replicate his amazing goal-scoring antics from last season has not helped City’s cause either.
The solid defensive pairing of Championship-veterans Scott Dann and Roger Johnson has been devastated by a season-ending Achilles injury to Dann. Recent addition Martin Jiranek and veteran Liam Ridgwell have slotted in admirably with Johnson, but don’t command the same presence of the injured Dann. The questionable future of star play-maker, Sebastian Larsson, has been an off the field distraction. On-loan winger, Alexander Hleb, has not lived up to expectations, seemingly incapable of regaining the great form he showed during his first tenure in England with Arsenal.
Despite these issues, there are some positives to take from the current campaign. Ben Foster has been a more than competent replacement for Joe Hart since his move from Manchester United this past summer. Craig Gardner has been one of their most consistent players since his move from Aston Villa last season, scoring vital goals in place of the mostly-absent strike force. Plus Zigic has scored game-winning goals in two of Birmingham’s last three matches.
Final Analysis: Birmingham sits only 3 points clear of the relegation zone, so every point gained from here on out is vital. They made some key loan moves during the recent winter transfer window with the additions of David Bentley, Obafemi Martins, and Matt Derbyshire all hoping to help City find the back of the net. If they do not, though, City will most likely be fighting for their Premier League lives right up until the end of the season.
5. Aston Villa (Current League Position: 16)
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Out of all the teams in the bottom half of the table, Villa’s current position is the most surprising. They have been hovering above the bottom three for a good part of the current campaign, but reason for some of their poor form is quite obvious. First of all, the sale of star player, Jamie Milner, near the summer transfer window’s end combined with then manager Martin O’Neill’s resignation left the club in a bit of disarray. Gerrard Houllier’s appointment was met with feelings of uncertainty. His adherence to rigorous training sessions was not well received by those both inside and outside of the organization.
Villa’s midfield being completely ravaged by injuries for good chunks of the season did not help matters, either. Stephen Ireland, who was part of the Milner deal to Manchester City, has been one of the biggest disappointments in the league this season; failing to impress in the few appearances he made for the club and now on loan at Newcastle United. Although, youngsters Marc Albrighton, Barry Bannan, Johnatan Hogg, and Ciaran Clark all stepped up admirably in the absence of more experienced players.
Stewart Downing has been a shining light, though, putting together one of his best seasons since his move from Middlesbrough last year. With the lack of goals from up top (a recurring theme with teams in this half of the table), Downing has been extremely versatile, playing across the entire midfield in the absence of Villa’s veterans.
Final Analysis: Despite being so close to relegation zone, Aston Villa should move up the table. They made some of the best moves of the recent winter transfer window. The shock transfer of Darren Bent to the club has already paid dividends in the goal department. Midfielders Jean Makoun and Michael Bradley will help bolster the midfield, while the on loan Kyle Walker will bring a much needed boost to Villa’s right back position. With Houllier finally starting to settle in at the club, it’ll be interesting to see if Villa makes a significant move up the table towards season’s end.
4. West Bromwich Albion (Current League Position: 17)
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The Baggies started the campaign off with a brutal 6-0 defeat at the hands of reigning champions, but put together a good string of results, which included beating Arsenal at the Emirates 3-2 and coming back from being down two goals to draw against Manchester United at Old Trafford 2-2. However, the good times did not keep on coming and a string of mediocre displays lead to the sacking of manager Roberto Di Matteo.
West Brom is the not so proud owners of the worst defense in the league with 52 goals conceded, just edging out fellow relegation rival Blackpool at 51. Scott Carson has been replaced by Boaz Myhill in recent weeks between the posts due to a string of poor performances. Meanwhile, veteran defender Jonas Olsson missing good chunks of the season due to injury has not helped a side lacking in top flight experience at the centerback position. Another player of note, Graham Dorrans, who had a spectacular season last year during the club’s quick promotion from the Championship, has had an extremely hard time putting together a consistent string of appearances for the club this year.
Not all is bad for the West Midlands club. Peter Odemwingie has had a surprisingly good first campaign in England with 9 goals to his name so far this campaign. Jerome Thomas and Chris Brunt have been spectacular on the wings for the Baggies, while Youssuf Mulumbu has had a breakout year as one of the league’s most consistent holding midfielders. Finally, James Morrison has had good season; rebounding well from an Achilles injury he sustained during West Brom’s last tenure in the Premier League that kept him out for most of last years Championship season.
Final Analysis: The Baggies are dreadfully close to another up and down season. It’d be great for the club to finally stay up for more than one year at a time, but they currently sit only 1 point clear of the relegation zone. They made a very small splash during the winter transfer window with loaning in striker Carlos Vela from Arsenal in order to add more pace to their striking options. He has already contributed to the Baggie cause by rescuing a point in injury time against Wolverhampton earlier this week. West Brom must start defending better if they are to avoid the drop zone and another year down below in the Championship.
3. Wigan Athletic (Current League Position: 18)
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Wigan has had a woeful season. Roberto Martinez, a great manager with Swansea City during his tenure with them in the Championship, has not impressed since taking over from Steve Bruce last season. They finished 16th last season and the squad looks even more mediocre this year. They sit one point below West Brom and only two points clear of the bottom two. They bolster a poor goal scoring record with only 27 goals scored, with Hugo Rodallega the only player finding the back of the net on a somewhat regular basis with 7 goals scored.
They have a decent defensive record with Ali Al Habsi providing good cover between the posts while Gary Caldwell has been a steadying force in a defense that lacks a lot of Premier League experience. Steven Gohouri and Antolin Alcaraz have put in some decent performances beside him, but are still new to the Premier League grind. Otherwise, Tom Cleverley, on loan from Manchester United, is the only other real player of note. The midfielder is having a good first season in the top flight following a great loan spell with Championship side Watford, putting in some solid performances for a side has lacked some serious good play from their midfield.
Meanwhile, Charles N’Zogbia’s prolonged transfer saga has not help matters. Despite some good performances on the pitch, the attacking player’s has made his intention to leave to club quite clear. Like Birmingham’s Larsson, the whole ordeal has become an unnecessary off the field distraction for the club and its fans.
Final Analysis: The Latics are facing an uphill battle for the rest of the season. They have been in or around the relegation zone for most of the season and it looks like their upcoming schedule does not favor their chances of survival. They have tough road matches at Manchester City, Chelsea, Blackpool, Sunderland, Aston Villa, and Stoke City over the next few months, and it’ll be hard for them to gain a few, if any, points from those match-ups. Since Wigan does not fair much better at home, the possibility of spending next season in the Championship seems quite likely.
2. West Ham United (Current League Position: 19)
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The league bottom feeder for a good part of the Premier League Season, West Ham has finally seen a sudden upturn in fortunes recently by hopping into 19th place on goal differential over fellow basement dweller, Wolverhampton. On a more serious note, though, the Hammers have not played as well as they look on paper. They have a large squad with loads of experience not only in the English top flight, but throughout Europe as well. There really is no excuse for how poorly they have performed this season. Blame the ownership, blame the manager, and blame the players because they are all responsible for another poor showing by a club with one of the most devoted fan bases in English football.
They are in bottom five of the league in both goals scored and goals conceded. The primary strikers for the majority of the season, Frederic Piquoinne and Carlton Cole, have combined for only 10 league goals. Meanwhile, the defense has conceded 48 goals so far this season. They’ll be lucky to hold onto to star players like Scott Parker or Matthew Upson even if they do pull themselves outside of the relegation zone. Parker has had another solid season, but there is no chance a player of his caliber will spend a season down below.
The team has performed well in cup competitions, most notably defeating Manchester United during the quarter-finals of the Carling Cup 4-0 before losing to Birmingham on a 4-3 aggregate score in the semi-finals. They face Stoke City next in the FA Cup quarter-finals, but like Portsmouth last season, a domestic cup final appearance is not going present a club with a lifeline out of the relegation zone.
Final Analysis: West Ham has dug themselves quite a hole for them to climb out of this season, but that by no means they are without hope. They do have quality players and if manager Avram Grant can somehow find a winning combination amongst them, anything is possible. They made a decent splash in the winter transfer window with the addition of Gary O’Neill, Demba Ba, and on loan Robbie Keane bolstering their ranks. Thomas Hitzlsperger has also come back from an injury that has ruled him out for most of the current campaign, his experience will go a long way as well. Meanwhile, Victor Obinna, on loan from Italian side Inter Milan, has been finding some decent form in recent weeks and if Keane (who seemed to age overnight when he transferred to Liverpool a while back) can regain any kind of goal-scoring form, then the Hammers could very well move up if teams like Wigan and West Brom slip.
1. Wolverhampton Wanderers (Current League Position: 20)
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The Midlands are well represented in the relegation battle this year, and the Wolves are currently bringing up the league’s rear. They have a league worse 16 losses, and with only 7 wins and 4 draws, which leaves them rooted at the bottom. They are the worse road team in the league with one win away from the Molineaux, so they need to gain points from every remaining home match to even warrant any hopes of top flight survival.
The Wolved have underperformed as a whole. Kevin Doyle, who has been deployed as the primary striker on many occasions, has only 3 league goals to his name. Like West Ham, they are just as bad on the defensive side as they are on the attacking end. Marcus Hahnemann won the job between the posts at the season’s start, a poor run of form lead to Wayne Hennessey regaining his position as the team’s number one goalkeeper. Joey Craddock has suffered from a lengthy injury spell, and although Richard Stearman has filled in well alongside Christophe Berra in defense, the team is still shaky at best when it comes to protecting the net.
There are a few positives for the team to take from this season so far. Matthew Jarvis has played extremely well and is hands down their best player this season with spectacular crossing and runs down either wing. George Elokobi has also had some fine displays, most notably an amazing goal during their recent upset of Manchester United 2-1, ending the top club’s unbeaten streak. The club has also upset United rivals Manchester City and Liverpool, but poor performances against teams on a more level playing field have aided Wolves in their basement-dweller status.
Final Analysis: Wolverhampton is most likely going to drop down at season’s end. Bringing in Jamie O’hara on loan has already boosted their midfield, but it’s up to the players that have been at Mick McCarthy’s disposal all season long to make sure Wolves top-flight status is secure. They may need teams above them to slip, but their remaining schedule is mostly against fellow relegation opponents. A majority of their remaining matches will be played at home, but their inability to take points on the road will continue to hurt them in the long run. Plus all their remaining home games, with the exception of Tottenham, are against teams in the bottom half of the table, so their top flight destiny remains in their hands.
