MLB Predictions: Power Ranking the Top 25 Prospects in Baseball
With the spring training exhibition season now under way, it would seem that we are that much closer to Opening Day. To clarify, that weird sound you're hearing right now is your humble narrator getting excited.
Indeed, who doesn't love baseball? It's the best sport there is, and it's coming every year brings with it the unofficial start of the warm months.
However, now is also the time to get serious, to roll up our sleeves and get down to business analyzing the best sport in the world from every which angle. For good or ill, this is what baseball geeks do, and we do it well.
As important as this season is, the name of the game today is to talk prospects. To be more exact, we're talking 25 of the best, and we aim to rank them based on their potential brilliance.
However, these power rankings come with a slight catch: if a player is projected to break camp with the big club, then he is disqualified from consideration. That means no Jeremy Hellickson, no Aroldis Chapman, and no Domonic Brown.
Sound good?
Yes? Then let's go!
25. Travis D'Arnaurd, C, Toronto Blue Jays
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Travis D'Arnaud is one of the better prospects that the Blue Jays got in the Roy Halladay trade (if not the best), and the consensus is that he is one of the best defensive catchers at the minor league level.
D'Arnaud's biggest strength is his arm, but he does have a pretty promising bat as well. Despite battling injuries at the Single-A level last season, D'Arnaud hit at a .259 clip with a .411 slugging percentage. Doesn't look all that great, to be sure, but remember that this is Single-A pitching we're talking about.
One way or another, D'Arnaud is the Jays' best long-term catching prospect. The folks at Baseball America have him as the No. 36 prospect overall, and they predict he'll be in the Majors by 2012. Only time will tell on that verdict.
24. Randall Delgado, RHP, Atlanta Braves
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Not surprisingly, the Braves have some pretty good arms in their system, and one of them belongs to Randall Delgado. He's got a plus fastball that can touch as high as 97 on the gun, but he uses his 90 MPH two-seamer more often. He also boasts a changeup that is already a true out pitch.
The one thing about Delgado is that his curveball is still a work in progress, which could explain why he saw his ERA jump from 2.76 to 4.74 when he made the transition from Single-A to Double-A in 2010.
The thinking is that Delgado will make a fine No. 2 starter down the line, and he might actually see some time in The Show at some point in 2011.
23. Jarrod Parker, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks
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Jarrod Parker's development hit something of a hitch in 2009. Actually, as Adam Wainwright can no doubt testify, it hit a rather big hitch, as he had to have Tommy John surgery.
Nevertheless, Parker still has worlds of upside, and always has ever since the D-Backs drafted him in the first round back in 2007. He has (when healthy anyway) a plus fastball with good movement that tops out at 97, a nasty slider, and a changeup that could develop into a true out pitch.
Parker made it as far as Double-A in 2009, where he posted an 8.50 K/9. He could crack the big club in 2011, but it's probably more fair to expect him to make it in 2012.
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22. Tyler Matzek, LHP, Colorado Rockies
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Now is one of the rare times in history when you can be excused if you're jealous at the arms the Rockies have in their farm system. It's true. Mark it, dude.
One of those arms is the left arm of Tyler Matzek, who was the top high-schooler picked in 2009. He spent 2010 at the Single-A level, where he logged 89.1 innings. He went 5-1 and had a K/9 of 8.87, but he walked an Oliver Perez-like 6.25 men per nine innings.
Regardless, Matzek throws a two-seamer and a four-seamer that are pretty good. He also has a slider, a change, and a curve. His biggest shortcoming right now is his funky delivery, but he should be able to get that squared away with another full season.
21. Chris Archer, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays
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The Rays may have lost themselves a potential ace when they traded Matt Garza to the Cubs, but they made off pretty well with some of the prospects they got in return.
One of those is Chris Archer, a righty with a mid-90s fastball and a tight slider that he can throw as hard as 88 MPH. He still needs to work on his change, but the key pitches are definitely in place.
At the Triple-A level in 2010, some of Archer's numbers that stand out are his 1.80 ERA and 8.61 K/9. Unfortunately, so does his 5.01 BB/9.
Still, Archer has the goods, and he could be up with the Rays in 2012.
20. Dee Gordon, SS, Los Angeles Dodgers
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I wasn't too high on Gordon when I first heard about him, but both FanGraphs and Baseball America have him as a top prospect, so who am I to argue?
Gordon is the son of former Major Leaguer and Stephen King muse Tom Gordon, and the one thing that scouts rave about is his ridiculous speed. He stole 73 bases at the Single-A level in 2009, and 53 more at the Double-A level in 2010. Given his slight frame, it's not surprising that he doesn't have much power, but he just might if he can add some bulk.
Nonetheless, when you think of middle infielders with insane speed, a name like Jose Reyes comes to mind. That's a good thing, you see.
19. Jameson Taillon, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates
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Any man named Jameson is okay in my book. So is any man with a fastball that sits consistently in the 93-97 range.
Oh, and Taillon is just 19, and has yet to throw a pitch as a pro.
Indeed, Taillon was the best high school pitcher in the 2010 draft class, and it pretty much goes without saying that the Pirates have pretty much tabbed him to be the ace that they sorely need.
It will take a year or two for that to come to fruition, but Pirates fans can go ahead and get excited anyway.
18. Martin Perez, LHP, Texas Rangers
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Had I been tasked with making this list last spring, Perez probably would have been much higher. After all, he came into 2010 off a very strong 2009, but proceeded to battle back problems. He logged 99.2 innings at the Double-A level, finishing with an ERA near 6.00.
Still, Perez is a guy with a fastball that reaches 95, a changeup that is coming along nicely, and a curve that could be an out pitch.
Perez has drawn comparisons to Johan Santana in the past, but he's obviously going to need a good year in 2011 in order to maintain any hype and/or momentum.
17. Jacob Turner, RHP, Detroit Tigers
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In the parlance of our times, Jacob Turner brings the heat. His fastball routinely touches 98, and he's got the kind of arm that allows him to cruise at 95.
Of course, you need more than one pitch, and Turner's curve is still pretty raw. Still, he finished 2010 on a tear by allowing just six earned runs in his final 35 innings.
Turner will strut his stuff at Double-A this season, but a September call-up could very well be in his future.
16. Kyle Gibson, RHP, Minnesota Twins
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The Minnesota Twins were perhaps lucky to get Kyle Gibson when they drafted him 22nd overall in 2009. He was projected as a Top 10 talent, but a minor arm injury that led to a drop in velocity scared a few teams off.
Of course, Gibson isn't much of a flamethrower anyway. He has a low 90's fastball that is by no means overpowering. But like all Twins pitching prospects, he's got great offspeed stuff, and he knows how to locate.
He progressed from Single-A all the way to Triple-A in 2010, inducing ground balls 56 percent of the time in a total of 152 innings. Not bad, not bad at all.
There's no place for Gibson in the rotation at the moment, but he could get called up at some point in 2011.
15. Lonnie Chisenhall, 3B, Cleveland Indians
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The top prospect in the Cleveland Indians organization, Lonnie Chisenhall doesn't necessarily project as a true star, but the thinking is that he will be a steady producer, a la former Indian Casey Blake.
What scouts love about Chisenhall is his swing. He's got a nice upright stance and a short stride, and his swing is short and compact, and it generates decent power.
Chisenhall spent the entirety of 2010 at the Double-A level, and finished with a solid line of .278/.351/.450. At this juncture, his biggest shortcoming is probably his defense, but the Indians are hoping he can improve on that at the Triple-A level.
Tribe fans can probably expect to see Chisenhall at some point in 2011, and he could be ready to start by the start of next season.
14. Casey Kelly, RHP, San Diego Padres
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How do we know that Casey Kelly is legit? He was the main reason that the Padres were willing to part with Adrian Gonzalez. Nuff said.
After deciding to pitch full-time rather than pursue a gig as a shortstop, Kelly went on to battle some injury issues in 2010. His fastball lost some zip as a result, but it will touch as high as 94 when he's right. He also has a killer curveball, and his overall accuracy is quite impressive.
Making it to the bigs in 2011 might not be in the cards for Kelly, but he does project as a future No. 2 starter. And as we all know, No. 2 starters can look like king-hell aces in Petco Park.
13. Zach Britton, LHP, Baltimore Orioles
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Zach Britton is in camp with the big club, but he's expected to start the season at Triple-A. Because, you know, logging 66.1 innings with a 2.98 ERA isn't quite good enough.
We kid, of course, but the fact of the matter is that Britton will likely find himself in The Show at some point or another in 2011. And when he does, baseball fans are going to get to see two of the best lefty prospects in baseball on the very same rotation (the other being Brian Matusz, you see).
What Britton brings to the table is a sinking, low-90s fastball and a nasty slider that is a Major League-ready out pitch. His command can get a little shaky, but it's just plain difficult to hit the guy hard.
12. Brandon Belt, 1B/OF, San Francisco Giants
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For a while there, it looked like Brandon Belt had a legit shot at making the big club out of spring training. But reason seems to have prevailed, as there doesn't seem to be much point in stashing Belt on the bench when he could be collecting experience at Triple-A.
After all, Belt hit just .229 at Triple-A last season, albeit in a very limited amount of time. He hit .337 at Double-A, and .381 at Single-A, so you could say he's progressing nicely.
Belt also has some serious pop, as he hit a total of 23 home runs in 2010 and slugged over .560 at each of the levels he saw time at.
If all goes according to plan, Belt will get called up at some point in 2011. And when he does, you'll have plenty of reason to be even more jealous of the Gigantes.
11. Matt Moore, LHP, Tampa Bay Rays
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Yes, they lost Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena to free agency. And yes, they traded Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett. But don't kid yourself, the future is still bright for the Rays.
One of the reasons for this is their beastly collection of pitching prospects, two of which will be in the rotation this year (Wade Davis and Jeremy Hellickson).
In the pipeline is Matt Moore, a lefty with a mid-90s fastball who struck out an unfathomable 12.94 batters per nine innings at Single-A last season. Not surprisingly, his control needs some work and his curve and change are not yet elite. That said, it's hard not to compare him to David Price.
That should make the two or three Rays fans out there very excited.
Mike Montgomery, LHP, Kansas City Royals
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First things first, Mike Montgomery is not related to the head basketball coach at Cal.
Now then. If you were to believe MLB.com, the only left-handed pitcher in baseball with a higher upside than Montgomery is Aroldis Chapman (who, remember, is disqualified from this list). I almost feel like I could leave it at that, but I won't.
At 6-foot-5, Montgomery is obviously quite big, and he's got a big fastball too. He uses it to rack up the strikeouts, as evidenced by his 12.04 K/9 clip at Single-A last season. His breaking ball could use some work, and he did miss a couple months with a forearm strain, but all signs seem to indicate that he could be great someday.
9. Manny Machado, SS, Baltimore Orioles
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Manny Machado only made it as far as Low-A ball in 2010, and got into only seven games once he got there. In those seven games, however, the 18-year-old hit .345.
To be sure, Machado is still very green, but there are few prospects in the league that boast more upside than he does. He needs to add some muscle, and his footwork at short is a work in progress, but he obviously has plenty of time to work out the kinks.
If all goes well, Machado will be in the bigs in 2013. Coupled with the Orioles' developing pitching staff, we could be looking at a key piece to the next powerhouse team in the American League.
8. Wil Myers, OF, Kansas City Royals
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Just in case you didn't hear the news, the Royals are indeed moving Myers to the outfield. Just FYI.
Now then, Myers is yet another of Kansas City's elite prospects (if you're wondering where Mike Moustakas is, my understanding is that he is going to break camp with the Royals, but please let me know if I'm wrong). And if my intel is correct, he is one heck of a hitter.
My intel, of course, consists entirely of numbers. In 58 games at the Single-A level in 2010, Myers' line was .346/.453/.512. Translation: good. Very good.
Now, Myers does have some holes in his swing, but he definitely has time to fix them. He could be in the bigs by 2012.
Get excited, Kansas City. There are some good players coming your way.
7. Michael Pineda, RHP, Seattle Mariners
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Michael Pineda is one of two Mariners prospects on this list that I include with a slight disclaimer: there's actually a pretty good chance that both of them could make the big club out of spring training.
But until anything becomes official, let's go ahead and pretend that Pineda is going to start the season at Triple-A.
If so, he will return to the very place where he racked up a 10.97 K/9 in 2010, which is mostly thanks to a fastball that can reach triple digits. His slider looks that much better because of his fastball, and he has a split-change that is really coming along nicely.
Whether or not Pineda opens the season with the Mariners, he will probably end up forming a dynamic duo with Felix Hernandez at some point. You've been warned, AL West.
6. Shelby Miller, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals
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Shelby Miller logged 104.1 innings at the Single-A level in 2010, and his numbers leave one with very little complain about. In 24 starts, Miller struck out 12.08 batters per nine innings, walked just 2.85 per nine, and compiled a 3.71 ERA.
In fact, the only real number that jumps out at you is his .348 batting average on balls in play. But again, this is Single-A we're talking about, where fielding is at a premium.
Regardless, Miller has a fastball that reaches 98, as well as a curve and a change that are quickly becoming legit out pitches. He's still a year or two away from being Major League-ready, but he projects as a future ace.
5. Dustin Ackley, 2B, Seattle Mariners
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Ackley would be the other Mariner who could potentially break camp with the big club, as he is currently locked in a battle for the second base job with light-hitting Brendan Ryan.
But once again, until anything is official, let's go ahead and assume that Ackley starts the season at Triple-A with his good buddy, Michael Pineda.
Now, Ackley is no prize in the field, but he's the kind of gap hitter that would simply wear Safeco Field out. His pop could eventually develop into the 15-20 homer range, but he has the ability to steal 15-20 bases right now.
Personally, I don't see why the M's wouldn't just give Ackley the second base gig right out of the gate. It's not like they have to worry about contending this year anyway.
4. Eric Hosmer, 1B, Kansas City Royals
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Those blasted Royals sure are hogging this list, aren't they?
All you need to know about Hosmer is that he might just be the best hitting prospect around. In 50 games at the Double-A level in 2010, Hosmer's line was .313/.365/.615. That's an OPS of .980, which is a figure that only Jose Bautista, Miguel Cabrera, and Josh Hamilton were able to equal at the big league level in 2010.
Now, that's a totally unfair comparison, but I'm sure you get the idea. Next to Hosmer, your team's prospects suck.
3. Julio Teheran, RHP, Atlanta Braves
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We come at last to the best pitching prospect in the league at this point in time, Atlanta's Julio Teheran.
Now, the odd part is that Teheran really only has two pitches at the moment. But those two pitches are a fastball that hits as high as 97 and a lights-out change. He also has a curve that is getting better and better.
In looking at his numbers, the one that really stands out is his .260 average on balls in play. That tells me that it's hard to make good contact on Teheran, which obviously bodes well.
The Braves have some aging pitchers in Derek Lowe and Tim Hudson. But don't worry, Braves fans. You have Teheran waiting in the wings.
2. Mike Trout, OF, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
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Who needs Carl Crawford when you have Mike Trout doing work in the minors?
Yet another unfair comparison. But the good news is that Trout (how fitting that the Angels would have yet another great player named after a fish) has emerged as the second-best prospect of the 2009 draft behind Stephen Strasburg. He's got blinding speed, and there are few balls he can't get to in the outfield.
At the dish, Trout is certainly patient enough, and he's the kind of guy who is hell on the basepaths (58 steals in 2010), and he is expected to develop pop that could deliver 20-25 homers a year.
Right now, Angels fans are probably thinking that 2012 can't come soon enough.
1. Bryce Harper, C/OF, Washington Nationals
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We all know who Bryce Harper is, right? He's the guy that hit the 570-foot home run as a high schooler. And with respect to Mike Trout, he is by far the best prospect in baseball.
In nine games as a pro in the Arizona Fall League, Harper's line was .343/.410/.629. That's an OPS of 1.039, and that's the kind of figure that baseball pundits the world over expect Harper to put up once he reaches the bigs.
That won't be for a while though, Washington peeps. For one, the Nationals need to come to their senses and get him out of the crouch once and for all, and then he needs to develop into a Major League-caliber outfielder.
My guess is that he's in the Majors by 2013, maybe with a 2012 September call-up in between.
After that, I don't know. Maybe history?
Hey kids! Did you know you can follow Zachary D. Rymer on Twitter?! It's true! And how!
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