NFL Draft 2011: Why Cam Newton Is the Most Overrated Prospect in a Decade

Auburn quarterback Cam Newton has been broken down and dissected and by every NFL draft analyst in the country, and in doing so he has been compared to every signal-caller from JaMarcus Russell to Ben Roethlisberger.

The problem is that none of these comparisons are fair to Newton because no one else compares—no one else is Cam.

Cam is a self-proclaimed "entertainer and icon," and whether that was taken out of context or not, there is little doubt that Cam has an ego that's bigger than the entire state of North Carolina.

Confidence is good, especially at the quarterback position, where the most important player and leader on each NFL team resides. But Cam's confidence is more self-absorbing than it is anything else—he does not appear to be the type of humble player that you would like to have.

By now, many people have heard of the many indiscretions involving Newton, from the stolen laptop and cheating allegations at Florida to his father's alleged financial quest for his son's services.

If you are looking for someone to compare Cam to, then you can start with a used car salesman. Many NFL scouts have called Cam a phony and not a good teammate. I do not know Newton personally, but I do know that there have been many people questioning his character, and typically, when that is the case, there is a reason for it.

This is where things get tricky for any team looking to potentially draft Newton (we're looking at you, Panthers); when you look at most evaluations of Cam, you see that his biggest weaknesses are in the categories of intangibles and decision-making.

One could argue that those two traits could be easily improved over time with maturity and experience, but I don't believe that Newton has what it takes to improve in these areas.

Newton was recently featured on Jon Gruden's quarterback camp on ESPN, and when Gruden asked Cam to tell him the name of a play that they ran at Auburn, any play, Newton was unable to do so. He told Gruden that all he had to do was look to the sidelines for a number and that was the play. He said that simple equals speed.

That's all fine and dandy at Auburn, in college, but things are about to get much more complicated in the NFL for Mr. Newton. All quarterbacks experience a learning curve when it comes to terminology once they reach the professional ranks, but Cam will have a much sharper curve than nearly every quarterback to ever be drafted in the first round.

Then there is the issue of the offense that Newton ran at Auburn. Newton attempted just 280 passes at the Division I level and he ran the ball 264 times.

Newton will be drafted in the top five picks to throw the football—he is not a running back, and while his ability to tuck the ball and run it will be a considerable advantage, he will not be running the ball nearly as much as he did in college.

The majority of the throws that Newton made at Auburn were out of the shotgun and had some sort of read involved in them. But these reads were very simple, where all Newton had to do was watch one or two players on the defense to decide whether to hand the ball off, run the ball himself or hit his open receiver.

Once again, the reads will not be that easy in the NFL.

The scouting report on ESPN.com of Newton when it comes to decision making is as follows-

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"Lack of anticipation as a passer is biggest concern. Takes too long to diagnose coverage and make reads. Is not asked to go through traditional progression reads. Doesn't trust his reads. Can be a selfish player. Holds onto the ball in the pocket far too long."

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So while it is possible that Newton will be a quick learner, I have a hard time believing that he will make a smooth transition to the NFL.

Current ESPN analyst Herman Edwards was recently on KJR 950 radio in Seattle and was asked to talk about Cam. Edwards talked about Newton's ability to play football at a high level despite all of the adversity around him and how he didn't think money would change Cam.

He is right about Newton playing well despite all of the controversy surrounding him, but for Cam, college was easy. After all, he was more athletic than nearly every defender he came across this season and Auburn's offense was similar to Newton running over everyone on the playground in elementary school. He was just better than everyone else, from a physical standpoint.

That will not be the case in the NFL, Cam will have to beat people with accuracy and intelligence.

Newton completed 66 percent of his throws at Auburn last season, a very good number, but you have to remember that he threw just 280 passes and that many of his throws were to wide-open receivers.

Much more will be expected of Cam at the next level and he will not have the same level of talent around him when he gets to the NFL. Newton will likely go to one of the least talented teams in the league, with the Panthers appearing to be the front-runner.

If Newton does end up in Carolina, then I see things going very poorly for both Cam and the Panthers. Newton is not going to be able to put an NFL team on his back as a rookie, and I don't think he will ever be able to do so because he is not good enough as a pure passer and he does not have the right mentality.

I believe the Panthers would be much better served taking A.J. Green in this year's draft because no matter who they take, including Newton, they will likely be picking near or at the top of next year's draft as well.

If I had my choice between A.J. Green and Andrew Luck or Cam Newton and Justin Blackmon, I'm taking Green and Luck and not looking back.

When you put all of these things together—the character issues, the fact that he threw just 280 passes at the Division I level in a very run-oriented offense and the fact that he ran such a simple offense at Auburn—you have to start to worry that he has a long way to go to be successful in the NFL.

Cam Newton is a great athlete, there is no denying that, and I'm certainly not doing it, but I don't believe he will be a great NFL quarterback.

There is a team in the top five that is about to make a mistake tomorrow that will set their franchise back for years with the selection of Cam Newton.

Panthers fans should be praying it's not their franchise.