2011 NFL Mock Draft: 15 Ways the Detroit Lions Could Go in the First Round
With the 2011 NFL Combine underway, I thought it was time to have another push at projecting what the Lions will do in the first round of the 2011 NFL draft.
After such a successful first round last year, when the Lions got their hands on All-Pro defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh and the explosive Jahvid Best, Martin Mayhew and his team will need to pull a few tricks out of the bag to match it. However, they are proven draft-day wizards so I would not write off a great first day in New York, even though the Lions are picking unusually deep in the round.
For all you readers, feel free to comment on which pick you would like to see the most, or if you think I missed someone. Remember they are in no particular order.
Enjoy!
Mike Pouncey (OG): Florida
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The Lions need to get younger on the offensive line and a top guard/center prospect would be just what the doctor ordered. And the brother of All-Rookie center sensation Maurkice Pouncey is the best young guard in the draft.
Pouncey has a late-first-round draft grade, so the Lions would be able to trade down and gain at least another second-round pick.Teams like the Chicago Bears who will want a top offensive tackle, or the Green Bay Packers, who could do with a top runner like Mark Ingram are prime prospects.
Pouncey is a very athletic guard who has no problems running pull plays. He is a technical rather than powerful blocker, but does a good job sealing off players and making holes in the run game and is the best pass blocking interior lineman in the draft. Danny Watkins is another option, but he is already 26, so is not a pick for the future.
Ryan Kerrigan (DE): Purdue
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Detroit pulled off a coup in signing Kyle Vanden Bosch last off season, as his leadership has gone a long way to the improvement of the defensive line and the quick development of Ndamukong Suh. However, his age and his latest injury raises concerns about his longevity, and Mayhew needs to look into drafting a protege for him to mentor as his eventual replacement.
Kerrigan has a late-mid-first round draft grade, but with his likely underwhelming combine performance and his questionable bulk, he will slip towards the bottom of the first round where he will be a huge steal. The Lions can look to trade down with teams like the Chicago Bears, Philadelphia Eagles or Seattle Seahawks and gain another second-round pick at least for their trouble.
Kerrigan is a high-motor pass rusher who uses his tenacity, strength and arsenal of moves to get to the quarterback. While he rarely beats a tackle cleanly off the snap, he often wins on the second or third attempt. He plays the run extremely well. He uses his strength and quick hands to contain the edge, and can then shed and stack to make his way to the ball carrier.
Kerrigan strikes me as a younger, stronger version of Vanden Bosch. What better player to replace him with? And what better player for Kerrigan to learn from?
Titus Young (WR): Boise State
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The Lions are in need of another wide receiver who can stretch the field vertically to take pressure off Calvin Johnson. This was supposed to be Nate Burleson's role, but at his age he is more suited to the slot receiver role.
Titus Young, like Kerrigan and Pouncey, is currently a late-first- round pick, so the same partners are good trading partners. The Kansas City Chiefs are another who may want to trade up to take Julio Jones to complement Dwayne Bowe.
Young is a fast-rising prospect who looks to be the next coming of DeSean Jackson. However, after the success that D-Jax has seen, Young will not be a second-round steal.
Young is one of the fastest wide players in the draft, who will probably run a sub 4.4 40 at the combine. What's more, this is not track speed. Young shows great agility, acceleration and elusiveness in the open field. He is a smooth route runner who can gain separation through his cuts or just through blazing pace.
He does allow too many passes into his body, which leads to some drops, and his slight 5'11" 170 lbs frame means he will not win many jump balls. The more physical corner backs in the NFL will make it harder for him to get off the line.
He will never be a number-one wide receiver, but is the sort of player who can take a short slant or bubble screen to the house and stretch the defense vertically. That is exactly the sort of receiver Detroit needs.
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Tyron Smith (OT): USC
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The Lions could do with drafting a franchise left tackle in a draft in the near future, and Tyron Smith is the leading candidate in this draft.
Just yesterday I thought he would be a mid- to late-first-round pick, but now that he has turned up at the combine with the measurables of 6'5," 307 lbs with 37" arms, there is now no way that Smith will not be picked in the top half of the draft—the Lions would be picking him at their designated spot.
Smith is a super-athletic offensive tackle prospect who projects to be a left tackle as a pro.
He is a natural bender who uses his long arms to control pass rushers. He is a quick puncher who is tough to get away from. He is also good in the running game. He gets to the second level quickly, and seals off the defender. He has good burst off the line, and if his weight gain has increased his strength then he will be a handful in the NFL.
It is arguable whether or not the Lions need to draft a offensive tackle in the first round this year with the holes in the secondary and the linebacker corps, but there is no doubt that he would be a valuable addition to the team.
Julio Jones (WR): Alabama
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It is safe to assume that A.J. Green will be gone long before the Lions even think of drafting a wide receiver, but there is another elite wide receiver who should be available with the 13th pick of the draft.
Julio Jones is the prototypical underneath route receiver. He is a large target at 6'4" and 220 lbs, and has very impressive acceleration for a man of his size. This allows him to gain separation through his cuts and makes him a good route runner.
He is almost impossible to jam at the line, and once he is in the open field he is a nightmare to bring down. He uses his size and acceleration to make yards after the catch. He is a good at jump balls and is a very powerful and willing blocker in the running game.
However, he is not fast, so he is unlikely to stretch the field. He is prone to lapses in concentration which leads to too many dropped passes, and he strikes me as a receiver who is extremely similar to Calvin Johnson. This similarity makes this a questionable pick. Let the Rams have him I say. While the Lions do need a wide receiver, a burner should be their priority.
Robert Quinn (DE): UNC
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Although he missed all of the 2010 season, Quinn is still an amazing athlete in his position. What's more, his suspension and lack of playing time might make him available when Detroit is picking at 13.
Quinn is a very athletic speed rusher with long arms and great lateral agility. He has the ability to consistently beat NFL left tackles both outside, and inside on counter moves. He has a consistent, hardworking motor, and is great at using his length and hands to shed blockers. He is slow to move off the snap, but this is easy to correct with coaching.
He is not so good against the run because he gets his pad level too high, which means that he can be manhandled by linemen, and is not strong enough to consistently set containment on the corner. However, he slips past blocks and is quick to close on the ball carrier.
Quinn is not a fully polished product, but was the best pass rusher in college in 2009. I would not be surprised if he ends up being the best defensive end in this draft. Despite this, he is not the best defensive end for the Lions. He is weak against the run, and with Cliff Avril bookending one side of the defensive line Detroit needs an end who can be a force against the run. That is not Quinn.
Brandon Harris (CB): Miami
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Other than Prince Amukamara and Patrick Peterson, all the cornerbacks in the draft have late-first-round grades. Therefore, if they do not trade up for one of them, then a trade-down scenario with the Seattle Seahawks, Chicago Bears or Tampa Bay Buccaneers is likely.
Harris is a fast, agile cornerback who has extremely fluid hips. Although not a technically sound player, he has the speed and burst to make up for a wrong move. Harris is also a willing tackler who can tackle larger wide receivers one-on-one.
Harris's liability to the Lions is that he is a natural off/zone coverage player. The Lions really need a good press coverage DB because of their strong pass rush. Opposing quarterbacks are looking to throw short timing passes, and a press corner would be ideal to mess up the timing and force the quarterback to hold on to the ball. This would lead to more coverage sacks.
Phil Taylor (DT): Baylor
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Although one of the Lions greatest strengths is their defensive line, it would still be prudent of them to add more depth to it, especially at defensive tackle. While Suh has been a star so far, a powerful run-stuffing, blocker-eating nose tackle to pair with him would make the Lions line much more intimidating.
The Lions already have Corey Williams manning the nose, but he had issues with penalties last season. Keep in mind that this slide is not advocating replacing Williams, rather using him as a part of a rotation of big bodies to help Suh.
Taylor is the biggest defensive tackle in the draft, and in the 4-3 defense would probably have to lose 10-15 lbs from his 340 lbs to be at his most effective. He is tall for a nose tackle at 6'4," and has very impressive power when bull rushing interior linemen one-on-one. He is more agile than he is given credit for and can slip past blockers as well.
His fast first step and quick, violent hands make him a handful in the run game when blocked one-on-one. He can power his way into the backfield with ease, and can anchor against the run.
Taylor is a raw player, who lets his pad level get too high and is not really dominant when double-teamed. However, with good coaching and playing in a confident and effective defensive line, he could well become a top run stopper. That would be of great value to Detroit going forward as a playoff team.
Prince Amukamara (CB): Nebraska
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Detroit has a pressing need at cornerback, which is likely to have to be addressed in the draft with the uncertainty of free agency.
It is unsure whether or not Amukamara will be available at 13 where the Lions are picking, but if he does not allay fears about his deep speed at the combine, then he may very well drop that far. If nothing else, the Lions would only have to trade up two or three spots, costing only a second- or third-round pick.
Amukamara, while not having elite recovery speed, is the most technically sound cornerback in the draft. He has good ball skills, great footwork and great intangibles. He has fluid hips, good agility and acceleration and is a safe tackler.
He is a capable press coverage corner, using his size (6'1" 205 lbs) and proper hand use to unsettle receivers, but does not do a great job against big wide receivers like those found in the NFL.
Overall, Amukamara is a good looking defensive back who will be a solid NFL cornerback, who will be a top 10 player if he can overcome his lack of speed. Failing this, he has all the attributes and intangibles to be a top safety, which is another position that the Lions could do with an upgrade.
Mark Ingram (RB): Alabama
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Detroit has been looking for a franchise running back ever since the retirement of Barry Sanders, and the search has been fruitless so far. However, if they select Mark Ingram in the 2011 NFL Draft, that could well be the end to this streak.
Ingram will be available with the 13th pick of the first round at the moment, so the Lions would not have to give up anything to draft him.
Ingram has all the tools to be a top NFL running back. While he is not a burner, he does have instant acceleration which allows him to burst through holes. He is a powerful runner who can run through weak tackles while making defenders miss.
Ingram is technically sound as he runs with a low pad level and has great vision setting up his block or finding cutback lanes. He has a nose for the end zone and does a good job driving his legs in the tackle to get extra yards.
Ingram would be a great complement to Jahvid Best, and would give the Lions plenty of talent at running back. He would certainly improve the team, but it is debatable whether he would be a huge success without a good run-blocking offensive line. Detroit should also be able to draft a solid powerful back like Ryan Williams, Mikel LeShoure or Daniel Thomas in the second or third round.
Patrick Peterson (CB): LSU
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The top defensive back—and possibly the best defensive player in the country—will certainly not be on the table when the Lions are picking at 13. They will have to trade up, and probably all the way to a top 5 pick. This will not come cheap and would probably include their first- and second-round picks, along with other incentives.
Peterson could be worth it.
There is a good chance that he will be the fastest cornerback at the combine, even at 215 lbs. He is very fluid in his movements, which is surprising for a 6'1" corner. He is not as technically sound as Amukamara, but is still good enough in that area to contribute immediately in his rookie season. Importantly, he has the size to play press coverage although in college he preferred to play off-coverage.
He is not a good tackler, but has the frame and the strength to be one. It is a matter of Peterson not being required to do it at the college level. I am sure he will be a good run support corner in a few seasons.
An added bonus is Peterson's kick-returning abilities. He was one of the best returners in college last season. He is fast, explosive, slippery and can run through weak tackles. He will certainly be a top NFL returner.
Peterson would be a great addition to the Lions, and is likely to become a blue-chip prospect. However, it is unlikely that the Lions will be able to find a trading partner at the top of the draft. There are plenty of talented kids that the weakest teams in the NFL will want to snap up.
Cameron Jordan (DE): Cal
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This may look to be a surprising pick, as Jordan is projected as a 3-4 defensive end. However, I think he also would have a future as a left defensive end who was dominant against the run, while being able to contribute eight or so sacks on a good defensive line. And the Lions do have a good defensive line.
It is unsure where Jordan will be drafted at the moment, but I believe that he will drop to about 15th or 16th overall. If Detroit decides to pick him then I would try trade down with a team like the San Diego Chargers or the Miami Dolphins to probably earn another second-round draft pick as well.
Jordan is a powerful defensive end who played every position on the Cal defensive line.
He is a large prospect at 6'4" and 280 lbs, and while does not have the athleticism of Da'Quan Bowers or J.J. Watt, he is a good pass rusher. He does not have the speed to consistently turn the corner, but has an effective bull rush, a deceptively quick first step to allow him to at least threaten the edge and is very strong when ripping back inside on the counter.
He is a great run defender at defensive end, who uses his power and quick, heavy hands to manhandle blockers or anchor the line at the edge. He can slip blockers to get to the ball carrier, but often lets his pad level rise too much which limits his ability to make plays.
Jordan would be a potent addition to the Detroit Lions. He would be a monster against the run and provide a pass rushing threat off the edge while taking pressure of Suh in the middle. He could also be moved inside on passing downs to make a lethal interior pass rush combination with the reigning Rookie of the Year.
Stephen Paea (DT): Oregon State
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The standout defensive tackle from Oregon State put on a show at the combine, breaking the bench press record with 49 reps at 225 lbs. While this in itself is no indication of how good a footballer he will be, when this is combined with the tape, it certainly raises interest in the man.
Paea will be a late-first-round selection, so trading down with the Chicago Bears, Green Bay Packers, Pittsburgh Steelers or Philadelphia Eagles would suffice, and send a second- and first-round pick Detroit's way at least.
Paea is another defensive tackle who would be a powerful run stopping complement to Ndamukong Suh.
Although he is short at 6'1" and lacks long arms, he weighs in at a solid 311 lbs, with most of that weight is distributed well throughout his whole body.
Paea is quick off the snap, and along with his low pad level, this allows him to jolt offensive linemen back on impact every snap. Can really anchor the run game with his strength. He can comfortably hold up against a double team, but is not great at shedding blocks and getting into the backfield himself.
As a pass rusher he will not be a star, but can use his strength and decent lateral agility to collapse the pocket when not double-teamed.
Paea will be a big-time contributor in a defense where he can be used as a run-plugger who cancels out attempts to run the ball down the middle. Pairing him with a sackmeister like Suh will take the pressure off him to get to the quarterback and just play his natural game.
Jimmy Smith (CB): Colorado
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Smith looks to be the best press coverage corner in the draft, which means that the Lions front office will be very interested in him during the draft.
Smith will probably be available in the early 20s of the first round, so the Lions would be looking to trade with teams like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Kansas City Chiefs or Philadelphia Eagles, and will be gaining a second-round pick at least in way of compensation.
Jimmy Smith is a tall, strong cornerback who excels at playing press coverage. He is not blessed with blazing speed, and is not terribly fluid through his hips either, he is very coordinated for a player of his size. He has good ball skills and locates the ball quickly when in coverage. He is also not a great tackler, although he has the build to develop into one.
Smith will interest the Lions because of his proficiency as a press coverage corner. With him disrupting routes and keeping the quarterback from passing the ball quickly the Lions defensive line can get more sacks. I see him as being the most likely cornerback for the Lions to take in the first round.
J.J. Watt (DE/DT): Wisconsin
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I am firmly of the opinion that the Lions need to add more defensive linemen that can hold up strong against the run, and JJ Watt would be the prize pick of run-stopping defensive ends.
After his ascension in recent mock drafts, it would be impressive if Watt dropped even to No. 13 where Detroit is picking. However, they would only have to trade up a few spots to get ahead of Dallas to pick him. It would be likely to cost the Lions a second- and fourth-round pick to make the move.
Watt is over sized for a 4-3 defensive end at 290 lbs, but could lose 5-10 lbs and be a great size to stuff the run. He is tall at 6'6" and uses his long arms to keep clean in a speed rush to the outside. He is not terribly quick—and will not be a speed rusher—but has good lateral agility for his size and decent burst off the line.
Watt makes his money rushing with his strength and hand use. He has very heavy and quick hands which he uses to overwhelm offensive tackles on contact, and is capable of walking into the backfield with his bull rush.
He also has an effective spin move, and rips inside on the counter as well as anybody. He is a tenacious rusher with a nonstop motor, and has all the tools to succeed as a physical, powerful outside pass rusher.
His real strength is against the run, and this would be why the Lions would draft him. He has the strength and low pad level to anchor and contain against the run, and also has the agility and strength to disengage and beat blockers on his way to the ball carrier.
Watt would provide a superstar left end that would stiffen Detroit's run defense while also being a dangerous power pass rusher off the edge. He versatility would allow him to also line up as a 5 technique defensive end or a defensive tackle on passing downs.
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