Fantasy Baseball LIMA, Part 2: 10 Potential Starting Pitcher Values
Last week I wrote about the LIMA (Low Investment Mound Aces) strategy and how the wealth of available starting pitching this season might make it a great time to dust off this strategy for your auction draft.
While the success of this strategy is predicated on identifying and acquiring pitchers who fit a certain statistical model, it’s important to remember that the goal is to build an entire pitching staff for $60 or less.
That means there might be room to draft one higher-profile starter that might be on everyone’s radar, but there is a very real need to target value throughout the rest of your draft.
In Part 2, I talk about some potential starting pitching value picks that fit the LIMA profile but might be overlooked by many of your league mates on draft day.
1. Brett Myers, Houston Astros
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Brett Myers put together an outstanding 2010 season, his first in Houston. Over the course of his career Myers' biggest issue has been consistency, but last season he seemingly put it all together.
His second half was outstanding, and when the season was over he matched a career high for wins with 14, posted a 3.14 ERA and struck out 180.
LIMA Stats
Ks/BBs Ratio: 2.73
Ks/9 Innings: 7.24
HRs/9 Innings: .80
Auction Draft Value: $5-$7
2. Gavin Floyd, Chicago White Sox
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Gavin Floyd did have some shoulder concerns last season, but the ultimate diagnosis was that he just needed some rest.
Floyd's most successful season two years ago saw him win 17 games, and while that might not happen again, late last season he began inducing more ground balls, leading to more success overall.
Floyd is capable of notching 150-plus strikeouts again this year, and I expect the record to be better than last year's 10-13. Given what you'll likely need to pay to roster him, Floyd could wind up providing tremendous value.
LIMA Stats
Ks/BBs Ratio: 2.60
Ks/9 Innings: 7.25
HRs/9 Innings: .67
Auction Draft Value: $1-$2
3. Brandon Morrow, Toronto Blue Jays
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Finally getting the chance to start regularly after bouncing back and forth to the bullpen in Seattle for two seasons, Morrow looked more and more comfortable as the season wore on. He has the look of a strikeout pitcher, and there's no questioning his stuff.
Toronto wisely limited his innings last season, but he was well on his way to bringing some of the more concerning numbers down had he kept throwing.
LIMA Stats
Ks/BBs Ratio: 2.70
Ks/9 Innings: 10.95
HRs/9 Innings: .68
Auction Draft Value: $5-$7
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4. Ricky Romero, Toronto Blue Jays
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Another young Blue Jays starter with upside, Romero posted 14 wins and struck out 174 in the AL East, as good a hitting division as there is in baseball.
His control could still use some work, but the drop in his walk rate and the improved WHIP and ERA numbers point to his continuing to make strides in the right direction.
LIMA Stats
Ks/BBs Ratio: 2.12
Ks/9 Innings: 7.46
HRs/9 Innings: .64
Auction Draft Value: $2-$4
5. James McDonald, Pittsburgh Pirates
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McDonald only has 16 big league starts, but he posted impressive stats for the Pirates after coming over from the Dodgers organization last season.
As a Pirates starter it remains to be seen what kind of help he can provide in the wins column, but he has above-average stuff and should be a consistent innings eater and post very nice strikeout numbers. He's also likely to represent a great deal of value of draft day.
LIMA Stats
Ks/BBs Ratio: 2.34
Ks/9 Innings: 8.54
HRs/9 Innings: .50
Auction Draft Value: $1
6. Brett Anderson, Oakland Athletics
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Anderson is only 23, and there's no disputing the fact that he does come with some risk. But the stuff has been electric since day one, and if Anderson can make upwards of 26-28 starts this season, you'll likely have stolen him on draft day.
The A's have retooled his style a little, and that may cut into the strikeouts, but he's a four-pitch hurler with excellent control and worth a look if you can pick him up at a value.
LIMA Stats
Ks/BBs Ratio: 3.41
Ks/9 Innings: 6.01
HRs/9 Innings: .48
Auction Draft Value: $8-$10
7. Luke Hochevar, Kansas City Royals
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Huge risk awaits here, but is it possible the former bonus baby can put it all together? He's shown small strides over the last couple seasons, and this is surely a leap of faith.
However, it did appear that Hochevar was on his way to fulfilling a lot of that promise when a freak batting practice accident, as he prepared for interleague play, landed him on the DL for a two-and-a-half-month stint. When he returned he didn't look like the same pitcher from the start of the season. Hopefully the offseason has done him some good.
If he can somehow transform himself from "Nuke" LaLoosh into the dominant pitcher many believe he can be, he could be the steal of your draft. Then again, he could be waiver-wire fodder by May as well.
LIMA Stats
Ks/BBs Ratio: 2.05
Ks/9 Innings: 6.64
HRs/9 Innings: .79
Auction Draft Value: $1
8. Madison Bumgarner, San Francisco Giants
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The Giants seem to be able to constantly churn out great pitching prospects, and Bumgarner's 2010 season did nothing to dispel that notion. He landed on everyone's radar with a dominant postseason, upstaging some of the more established veteran hurlers on the staff.
At only 21 years of age, it's logical to assume that there are steps backward or a tough outing here and there, but Bumgarner's excellent control should limit the potential problems going forward. I expect a solid though not spectacular season from the young pitcher, so don't overpay at your auction.
LIMA Stats
Ks/BBS Ratio: 3.31
Ks/9 Innings: 6.97
HRs/9 Innings: .89
Auction Draft Value: $3-$5
9. Jhoulys Chacin, Colorado Rockies
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Chacin is another young gun whose debut season in the rotation was stellar statistically. He averaged more than a strikeout per inning, though it would be nice to seem him improve his control in 2011.
While last season he was able to overcome the handicap of pitching at home, he is after all a Rockies starter, and sooner or later that ballpark always seems to take its toll.
Chacin has proven he's legitimate, and scouts rave about the upside. Just be prepared for the inevitable bumps along the way that always seem to plague a young starter.
LIMA Stats
Ks/BB Ratio: 2.26
Ks/9 Innings: 9.04
HRs/9 Innings: .66
Auction Draft Value: $5-$7
Daniel Hudson, Arizona Diamondbacks
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I have Hudson ranked at the back end of the LIMA value pitchers, mostly because the hype is beginning to outweigh what I think you can expect.
Make no mistake—Hudson's numbers in limited action last year were outstanding. Project them out over a season and you're looking at 180-plus Ks and 16 to 18 wins with a similar ERA and WHIP to what he posted.
I think you can expect good things, but I'm not sure he finishes that well. Plus, as the hype machine churns, it's likely there will be a premium placed on his auction draft value, and part of executing LIMA is avoiding a bidding war when pitchers get overvalued.
LIMA Stats
Ks/BBs Ratio: 3.11
Ks/9 Innings: 7.93
HRs/9 Innings: .76
Auction Draft Value: $8-$10
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