Week 4 Key NFL Trends From NFLOne.com: Our Blog/Forum Is Live!

AT FIRST GLANCE…there are games that always look ‘Tasty’ ATS in many publications as a ‘Bullet’ trend only to ‘trap’ upon further review. In 2006, The Director looked for the first time to clear the way for you to understand which team has the real ‘ADVANTAGE’ against the ‘Trend’.

The Director draws even greater clarity by identifying the Key Trends ATS as either ‘First Look’ or ‘King Trends’:

If you have enjoyed the tumultuous trip in the stock market, and the $700 billion bill in front of congress, then Jacksonville is where you should go.  For even though the Texans have made it the premiere of both my Worst Defense list, and projected by statisticians to lose by 14.5+ points, funny things happen in this series.  Like Jacksonville’s grasp over Indianapolis, the Texans are 3-1 ATS during the Kubiak era.  Even more impressive is that they are 3-1 SU. Arriving as Dogs of 6-13.5 points, the Texans have won by as many as 20 points.  The only good news for the Jaguars is their 20 point margin of victory in 2007.

DON'T BE FOOLED BY THE MEDIA HYPE

Just as Houston has been the thorn in Jacksonville’s side, the Washington Redskins have stung the Dallas Cowboys.  Although times are different in that the Cowboys are powering 30 points on 440 total yards per game, the Skins are wearing the crown in this series with a 5-1 record ATS over their last six matchups. Even more impressive has been the Redskins 2-0 record ATS versus Wade Phillips in 2007, including a straight-up victory as 11 point Underdogs here last year.
ADVANTAGE REDSKINS

FIRST LOOK

Looking to take advantage of the worst team of the NFL, and the projected 27 points the St. Louis Rams are projected to lose by, you will need to turn your back on the New Orleans Saints. For it is the New Orleans Saints that will now face off with the 49ers, 2-1 ATS in their series over the last 5 years.  By statistics alone, these two teams could not be more evenly matched.  However, the Saints own a 2-0 record ATS in the their last two in their series since Nolan’s arrival.  Not only has Nolan lost by over 21 points per game, he has only been able to manage 10 points per game in these matchups.  If there was ever a game for New Orleans to close the holes in their defense that have allowed 27+ points per game on 392 total yards per game, it is here.
ADVANTAGE SAINTS

KING TRENDS

I believe this is the third year of my poems about ‘the rich and the poor’ in the AFC West.  This could not be truer than in Kansas City. With a Royal surprise, the Denver Broncos are not only the top ranked offense with 38 points per game on 432 total yards per game, but have busted two long time trends already in 2008.  They head to Kansas City to play the Chiefs, one of the Director's Top 5 Worst Rated Teams, where they are 2-0 ATS in the last two; 2-0 SU in those contests as well, Denver has allowed only 9 points per game and cracked an average winning margin of 25 points.
ADVANTAGE BRONCOS

If you too listened to the hype instead of your little voice in Week 3, you can still head to Oakland where the Chargers arrive off a monster victory at Home, 9-1 ATS versus Oakland in their last 10 matchups; the Chargers powering  a 5-0 record ATS in Oakland during the run. Having won as 9.5+ Favorites in 2007, the Chargers’ #2 ranked offense by points scored per game is projected by statisticians to win by a 10+ margin of victory.  Even with Kiffin on the ropes, it will be difficult to turn the tide with the Raiders managing only 15+ points per game in 2007.  This will be one hell of a tide with Brees’ firepower causing the biggest waves.
ADVANTAGE CHARGERS

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