MLB Power Rankings: The Top Rising Star to Watch on Every Team in 2011
For the diehard baseball fan, the first day of spring is not in March. No sir, spring starts the minute pitchers and catchers report to spring training, and it is very much a reason to celebrate.
Indeed, with a few notable exceptions, players across Major League Baseball have reported to camp, and Opening Day is going to be here sooner than you think. Following one of the busiest offseasons in recent memory, the general consensus is that we should be in for one heck of a season.
As far as who the stars will be, educated people like you and I know where to direct our attention. Albert Pujols will do his thing, and so will Alex Rodriguez, Roy Halladay and Felix Hernandez.
However, you know as well as I do that plenty of stars will be born this year, and that's where we're putting our focus today. Ahead is a rundown of the top breakout candidates for each team, ranked by their likelihood of becoming one of the next great stars. Some of them will come out of nowhere, others will build on the success they've already enjoyed in the show. All of them, however, are worth watching.
Enjoy.
30. Seattle Mariners: Justin Smoak, 1B
1 of 30
Smoak was the centerpiece in the deal that sent Cliff Lee to the Texas Rangers, and it's easy to see why the Seattle Mariners wanted him. He is, after all, a switch-hitting, power-hitting first baseman who has drawn comparisons to Mark Teixeira.
Nevertheless, Smoak hit just .209 in 70 games with the Mariners in 2010, and you have to worry about any power hitter who is trying to make a name for himself while playing half his games at Safeco Field. And it certainly doesn't help that the Mariners have absolutely no protection for him in their lineup.
The Mariners could also see second baseman Dustin Ackley and starting pitcher Michael Pineda assume starring roles this season, but I don't think we'll see either of them until midseason.
29. St. Louis Cardinals: Kyle McClellan, RP
2 of 30
The Cardinals are one of a very small handful of teams that have established veterans at pretty much every spot on the roster, including in the rotation and in the bullpen.
Picking out a breakout candidate was thus somewhat tricky, so I decided to take this opportunity to put Kyle McClellan on top of a much-deserved pedestal.
McClellen was quietly one of the best setup guys in baseball in 2010, finishing with 19 holds and a 2.27 ERA. He also limited lefties to a .204 average, which is obviously pretty impressive.
Now you know, folks. Do me a favor by making him a star.
28. San Diego Padres: Luke Gregerson, RP
3 of 30
Before you ask, the only way Gregerson becomes a star is if the Padres trade Heath Bell, which I think they will do at some point in the 2011 season.
If Bell is traded, Gregerson is a prime candidate to take over the closer's role, and he has the kind of stuff to get the job done. He has an absolutely filthy slider, and he posted a ridiculous 0.83 WHIP in 2011. He also pitched 78.1 innings and struck out 89 batters.
I'm not sure the Padres can surprise like they did last season, but there will certainly be plenty of saves to be had. Don't be surprised if Gregerson is the guy who starts picking them up as the season progresses.
.png?w=256)
27. Chicago White Sox: Chris Sale, RP
4 of 30
With Bobby Jenks taking his talents to Boston, it looks right now like Matt Thornton will be taking over the closing duties. And because he's got a plus-fastball, not to mention plenty of big league experience, he's as good a choice as anyone.
Or is he? Indeed, Ozzie Guillen could also give 21-year-old lefty Chris Sale the nod. After all, Sale has an upper 90s fastball and a nasty slider, and he struck out 32 batters in just 23.1 innings last season, so he might actually be the better option.
26. Arizona Diamondbacks: Daniel Hudson, SP
5 of 30
Not too sure what to expect out of the Diamondbacks this season. They don't seem to be the kind of team that can challenge the Giants or the Rockies for the division, but I also don't see them finishing last either.
One of their bigger shortcomings, however, is the lack of a true ace in their rotation. Ian Kennedy has never struck me as a top-of-the-rotation guy, nor has Joe Saunders.
However, I do think that Daniel Hudson has room to grow. He's got a good low-to-mid 90s fastball, and he knows how to locate it. He also broke out a surprisingly good changeup in 2010, which he used to compile a 2.45 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP in 14 starts.
If all goes well, Hudson could win 12-15 games, and the D-Backs may have a No. 1 after all.
25. Boston Red Sox: Jed Lowrie, IF
6 of 30
On a team loaded with past and present All-Stars, there really aren't that many "breakout" candidates on the Red Sox. They are certainly loaded with young talent, such as Ryan Kalish and Daniel Bard, but I'm just not sure if any of their younglings are going to become stars this season.
However, I imagine I'm not the only person that's intrigued by the idea of Jed Lowrie as an every day player. This was the plan back in spring training of 2009, but then, the injury issues cropped up, and he missed pretty much the entire season.
It looked like it was going to be more of the same in 2010, but he more or less came out of nowhere toward the end of the year to hit .287 with nine homers.
If I had to bet, I'd say that Marco Scutaro opens the season at short for the Sox. But Lowrie will get some ABs here and there, and I'm also willing to bet that he will take over as a full-time player at some point.
If he does, an already good Sox lineup could end up being even better.
24. Cleveland Indians: Chris Perez, RP
7 of 30
Chris Perez definitely made the most of his opportunity once Kerry Wood went down with an injury early on in the 2010 season. In 63 appearances, he saved 27 games, struck out 61 batters and posted an ERA of 1.71 and a WHIP of 1.08.
Perez throws in the mid-to-upper 90s with a good power slider, which pretty much makes him your ideal shutdown closer. If I had to guess, I'd say upwards of 40 saves is very much a possibility.
The Indians should be pretty dreadful this season, and it's a good bet that they will actually look to trade Grady Sizemore and Fausto Carmona. But hey, they're not going to suck as bad as the Cavaliers, and Perez is as good a reason as any to head out to Jacobs Field.
23. Kansas City Royals: Kila Ka'aihue, 1B
8 of 30
Before we get into the nitty-gritty here, let me just say that the answer to your question is no. I have no idea how to pronounce his name, and I wish the PR announcer at Kaufman Stadium the best of luck.
We kid, of course, as Ka'aihue got plenty of at-bats for the Royals last season. He got 180 of them to be exact, but he hit just .217. He does have a really good eye and plenty of raw power, but his long swing makes it difficult for him to establish any kind of consistency.
Ka'aihue will be 27 by the time Opening Day rolls around, which I guess makes him a pretty good late-bloomer candidate. Besides, with Zack Greinke gone, there really aren't too many other reasons to watch the Royals this year.
22. New York Yankees: Jesus Montero, C
9 of 30
Despite the fact I've now had several months to decipher the signing, I still have no idea why the Yanks went out and signed Russell Martin when all signs seem to indicate that Jesus Romero is ready for the big leagues.
Then again, this is the Yankees we're talking about, and I've never credited them with having an abundance of brains.
Either way, because Russell is there, Montero finds himself in an iffy situation. He is competing with Francisco Cervelli for the backup gig, but you obviously have to think the Yankees will think twice about stashing him on the bench when he could continue to develop at the Triple-A level.
Still, Montero will get some time at the big league level one way or another, and he's got the kind of bat that could make an immediate impact. Besides, the Yankees aren't exactly overflowing with top-shelf youngsters, so there's really nobody else on the team to put on this list.
21. Minnesota Twins: Tsuyoshi Nishioka, 2B
10 of 30
Tsuyoshi Nishioka, formerly of the Chiba Lotte Marines in the Nippon Professional Baseball league, signed a three-year contract with the Twins back in December, and he is slated to be their starting second baseman.
Nishioka hit .293 in parts of nine seasons in Japan and was a member of the Japanese team that won the World Baseball Cup in 2006, in which he hit .355 with two homers. He's really not much of a power hitter, but he does make very good contact, and he does have the kind of speed that could result in a 20-steal season.
Good contact and speed, eh? Yup, sounds like a guy that will fit right in with the Twins. The Central should be theirs for the taking and don't be surprised if Nishioka plays a significant role.
20. Pittsburgh Pirates: Pedro Alvarez, 3B
11 of 30
Death, taxes and the Pittsburgh Pirates finishing under .500.
Will the Pirates be any better this year? I kindly doubt it.
Is there a reason for Pittsburgh fans to go out to the ballpark? Yes. And his name is Pedro Alvarez.
After hitting 29 homers in the minors in 2009, Alvarez was called up to the show for a 95-game stint in 2010. He was solid enough, hitting .256 with 16 homers and 64 RBIs. He did strike out quite a bit though, as he averaged 1.25 whiffs a game (a total equaled only by Adam Dunn and Mark Reynolds).
Nevertheless, Alvarez still has tons of pop, and I think 25 home runs or so sounds reasonable.
19. Milwaukee Brewers: John Axford, RP
12 of 30
If you're looking for a true dark horse team to bet on in 2011, my suggestion would to be to bet the farm and whatever assets you may have on the Milwaukee Brewers. Part of the reason I say this is because I think adding Zack Greinke gives them maybe the best rotation in the Central, but it's also because I like their bullpen.
The head honcho of said bullpen is John Axford, who stepped in for the best closer of all time (stats-wise, anyway) to establish himself as perhaps the next great closer in the National League. Axford converted 24 of his 27 save opportunities in 2010, whiffing 11.79 batters per nine innings in the process.
If Axford ends the season with 40 or more saves, you'll know that the Brew Crew had themselves a fine season.
And yes, I also like Jonathan Lucroy to make some strides this year, but I just have a hunch that Axford is going to be the bigger X-factor this season.
18. Atlanta Braves: Freddie Freeman, 1B
13 of 30
Last year, the Braves unveiled their biggest young gun in the form of Jason Heyward, and that went pretty well.
This year, it will be Freddie Freeman getting the shot to become a mainstay in the Braves' lineup. The first base job is his for the taking, and the question will be whether or not he can show any improvement from the weak showing he had in a 20-game stint at the end of last season.
Freeman is a guy with good line-drive pop, but he does swing and miss more often than I'm sure the Braves would prefer. Still, he absolutely mashed at Triple-A Gwinnett in 2010, so the talent is certainly there.
If Freeman can show he belongs, the Braves might just be able to give the Phillies some headaches in the NL East.
17. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: Peter Bourjos, OF
14 of 30
Angels fans were lucky to get a 51-game preview of Peter Bourjos in 2010, and this year, he's going to be a part of what might be the best defensive outfields in years.
Bourjos, who Baseball America tabbed as the best defensive outfielder before last season, will likely break camp as the starting center fielder, where he will be flanked by Gold Glovers Vernon Wells and Torii Hunter. Methinks not too many balls are going to hit the grass in 2011.
At the dish, Bourjos could stand to learn some discipline (just like any other young player). He is a threat to steal when he does get on, however, and he does have some sneaky pop in his bat. If he can develop into a smarter hitter, the Angels may not regret missing out on Carl Crawford after all.
16. Cincinnati Reds: Drew Stubbs, OF
15 of 30
To be perfectly honest, I'm not sure what to make of the Reds' chances heading into 2011.
Sure, they won the division in 2010, but I, for one, think they severely overachieved, especially given the fact that their rotation just leaves a lot to be desired.
Then again, maybe I'm just bitchy because it was surprisingly hard to pick which player of theirs I wanted to put on this list. Like most people, I think Aroldis Chapman has plenty of upside, but the amount of hype surrounding him hardly qualifies him as a "breakout" candidate.
Thus, how about Drew Stubbs? He was one of the team's unsung heroes last season, and he was one of two players in the Majors that hit 20 homers, stole 30 bases and scored 90 runs last season. The other was Hanley Ramirez.
If Stubbs is to establish himself as a star, he's going to have to cut down on his strikeouts, as he whiffed 32.7 percent of the time in 2010, the third-worst such total among qualifying players.
If he can do that, his average should jump up closer to the .275-.290 mark, and casual fans will start to take note.
15. Washington Nationals: Drew Storen, RP
16 of 30
I know two things about Drew Storen. The first is that he will readily accept an Xbox Live friend request if you send him one, and the other is that he has all the tools to become a shutdown closer.
The Nationals have yet to commit to Storen as their closer, but his mid-90s fastball and nasty slider certainly give him the right tools for the job. In addition, Storen averaged 9.71 strikeouts per nine innings after the break last season, so it would seem that he may have already figured out this whole major league pitching thing.
Make it happen, Nats.
14. New York Mets: Ike Davis, 1B
17 of 30
Brace yourselves, Mets fans. 2011 is not going to be a very fun year.
I hate to say things like this before the exhibition season has even started, but there just doesn't seem to be much hope for the Mets heading into this season. Especially not with their current starting rotation. It's just...well, it's just not that good.
That being said, the Mets do have themselves a pretty solid lineup, and I think it's fair to expect Ike Davis to improve upon what was a very good rookie campaign in 2010, in which he hit .264 with 19 homers and 71 RBIs. A good portion of those numbers were put up after the All-Star break, which is obviously a very good sign.
If you're asking for realistic expectations for Davis, I'd say somewhere in the neighborhood of 25-30 home runs and 90-100 RBIs would do the trick. The team is probably going to part ways with Carlos Beltran and Jose Reyes after the season, so it's looking like they'll have to start over with Davis and David Wright as the centerpieces of the franchise. Could be worse, I suppose.
13. Houston Astros: J.A. Happ, SP
18 of 30
I'm not so sure the Astros are going to be able to keep pace with the Cardinals, Reds and Brewers in the Central, but I do think their starting staff is one of the more underrated such units in baseball.
For example, J.A. Happ has always struck me as the kind of guy who is going to be an ace some day, and he's currently slated to be the No. 3 starter behind Wandy Rodriguez and Brett Myers. That's not a bad little trio, and Happ could end up being the best of the bunch.
The biggest hurdle left in Happ's way is a legit big league inning count. He set his career-high with 166 back in 2009, and we shall see if this is the year he gets to and/or goes over 200.
12. Colorado Rockies: Jhoulys Chacin, SP
19 of 30
The Rockies seem poised to make a serious run at claiming the NL West this season, and their pitching is a big reason why.
I know, it's not every day that we get to say something like that, but that doesn't make it any less true.
As of right now, Jhoulys Chacin is penciled in to be the fourth starter for Jim Tracy, but he's got the kind of stuff that will make him the ace of the staff some day.
Chacin made 21 starts as a rookie in 2010, going 9-11 with a 3.28 ERA and 138 strikeouts. Better yet is the fact that he didn't really have any troubles pitching in Coors Field, posting a 3.98 ERA at home. That's obviously not great, but it's the kind of number you take in a heartbeat at that ballpark.
It seems likely that the Rockies will set Chacin loose in 2011, and I think 12-15 wins is a definite possibility.
11. Chicago Cubs: Starlin Castro, SS
20 of 30
My guess is that most true baseball people are already excited about Starlin Castro. He is, after all, just the fourth player in the last 50 seasons to bat .300 as a 20-year-old rookie.
Of course, the flipside of that token is that this makes him a regression candidate for the 2011 season. But because Castro makes contact so consistently, and is able to leg out so many infield hits, I'm thinking he can keep on keeping on in 2011, and then some.
The one thing you would like to see from a player with Castro's speed is a better success rate stealing bases. He stole just 10 last season and was caught eight times.
10. Detroit Tigers: Austin Jackson, OF
21 of 30
Yes, I'm well aware that Austin Jackson already had himself quite the breakout year in 2010, batting .293, scoring 103 runs and making several dazzling plays in center field.
Nonetheless, much of Jackson's "rising star" reputation was established in April, where he hit over .360 and was named the AL's Rookie of the Month. He wasn't quite as good throughout the season, but he also didn't slump as badly as most people think.
Basically what I'm getting at here is that I think Jackson still hasn't hit his peak. This goes against the opinion of many other pundits who have Jackson as a major regression candidate. Given Jackson's lack of developing power and tendency to swing and miss, they may have a point.
But the way I see it, Jackson still has worlds of talent, and few other young players around the league are surrounded by a better group of veterans than he is.
9. San Francisco Giants: Madison Bumgarner, SP
22 of 30
Oh, to be young and a part of the San Francisco Giants' starting rotation. That's the life for me...
However, as good as the Giants' pitching is, the big guys at the top of the rotation had to handle quite a few innings last year, and it's reasonable to expect a team-wide championship hangover.
Nevertheless, even if this is the case, I still think that Madison Bumgarner is going to turn into a true ace this season. The dude is just 21 years old, and he was magnificent last season, especially in the playoffs. In four postseason outings, Bumgarner posted a 2.18 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP, and he showed veteran poise.
Bumgarner is going to break camp as the fourth starter, but I honestly would not be at all surprised if he ends up leading the team in wins in 2011.
8. Toronto Blue Jays: Kyle Drabek, SP
23 of 30
If you're looking around for the most underrated pitching staff in the bigs, you might just find it in Toronto. Ricky Romero is a budding star, Brandon Morrow has excellent stuff, Brett Cecil quietly won 15 games in 2010, and it's looking like the Blue Jays are going to break camp with Kyle Drabek as their No. 4 starter.
What John Farrell and the Jays have in Drabek is a guy with a fastball in the mid-90s, a killer curve and a knack for inducing ground balls. All of those are good things, you see.
He got his feet wet with three starts at the end of last season but didn't really impress. Nevertheless, he could very well be in the mix for the AL Rookie of the Year by the end of the season.
7. Baltimore Orioles: Brian Matusz, SP
24 of 30
Get excited, Baltimore. The Orioles have themselves a true stud in the making in Brian Matusz.
Of course, this was always the whole idea with Matusz, but he definitely went through some growing pains in 2010 (his 8.10 ERA in July comes to mind). However, he managed to figure things out at the end of the year. Matusz won seven of his final 11 starts, posting a 2.18 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and 52 strikeouts in the process.
It's looking like Jeremy Guthrie will be the Opening Day starter for the O's, but Matusz should develop into the team's true ace.
6. Texas Rangers: Neftali Feliz, SP?
25 of 30
Tough call as far as the Rangers are concerned, as they have established stars up and down their lineup and plenty of good arms both in their rotation and in their bullpen.
Thus, I decided to go with Neftali Feliz. Yes, the same guy who saved a rookie record 40 games in 2010 and was named the AL Rookie of the Year last year.
Trust me, putting him on this slideshow makes me shake my head too. But because the Rangers are toying with the idea of putting Feliz in their starting rotation, we could be dealing with a pitcher who raises his game to a whole 'nother level.
Personally, I'm not so sure if Feliz will be able to maintain his electric fastball for multiple innings, and there's always the fear of the Rangers Joba Chamberlain-ing him. But let's not forget that they moved C.J. Wilson from the pen to the rotation last year, and that worked out okay.
Long story short, keep an eye on Feliz if he breaks camp as a starter.
5. Philadelphia Phillies: Domonic Brown, OF
26 of 30
In case you're still wondering why the Phillies let Jayson Werth go seemingly without a fight, it's because they had this guy waiting in the wings.
With Werth gone, all signs point towards Domonic Brown breaking camp as the starting right fielder. He didn't look all that great in his 35-game cameo in 2010, but he's a true five-tool talent who has nothing left to prove at the minor league level (.296 lifetime average).
If Brown can adapt to major league pitching, he should emerge as the front runner for the NL Rookie of the Year.
4. Oakland Athletics: Brett Anderson, SP
27 of 30
My hope is that most of you already know Brett Anderson's name. After all, he's already made 49 starts in parts of two seasons with the A's and has looked pretty darn good in most of them.
However, thanks in large part to a series of nagging injuries last season, Anderson hasn't quite put it all together. Nevertheless, we certainly know what the big lefty brings to the table, namely a low-to-mid 90s fastball, and a curve, slider and changeup that he can throw for strikes any time he wants. He also may be more effective against righties than he is against lefties, which obviously bodes well for him going forward.
Anderson has a chance to be Oakland's starter on Opening Day. If he can stay healthy, you're looking at a sure 15-game winner.
3. Tampa Bay Rays: Jeremy Hellickson, SP
28 of 30
Am I the only person who feels like the Rays are still as dangerous as ever? Sure, they lost Carl Crawford, Carlos Pena, Jason Bartlett and Matt Garza, but they have plenty of youngsters ready to pick up the slack.
One of those is Desmond Jennings, but it's looking like he's going to play the fourth outfielder role this season. As such, the biggest breakout candidate has to be Jeremy Hellickson, who could end up being a very good No. 2 starter behind David Price.
Hellickson, or "Hellboy" as they call him, got four starts in 2010, compiling a 3.47 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. He has four very good pitches, and he knows how to command each of them. He also displayed excellent pitching savvy in his brief cameo in the majors, which should help him negotiate what is a very tough AL East.
2. Los Angeles Dodgers: Clayton Kershaw, SP
29 of 30
Because a 13-10 record with 212 strikeouts and a 2.91 ERA aren't good enough, dammit.
Seriously though, of the several talented youngsters the Dodgers have under their control (the others being Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier), Kershaw is the one guy who I think still hasn't peaked yet.
So what's left, you ask?
How about Cy Young contention?
Because I think that this is a legit possibility, I'll rest my case.
1. Florida Marlins: Mike Stanton, OF
30 of 30
There aren't too many youngsters out there with what they call "light tower power," but Mike Stanton is definitely one of them. And indeed, he already had his coming out party in 2010, hitting 22 home runs and driving in 59 in 360 at-bats.
This year, I honestly don't think it would be too unreasonable to expect 40-plus homers out of Stanton. Shoot, he might even hit 50.
On balance, the Marlins are going to have yet another team that may not be good enough to win the division, but is certainly good enough to put up a fight for it. And in Stanton, they have themselves a legit threat for the home run crown.
Hey kids! Did you know that you can follow Zachary D. Rymer on Twitter?! He only talks about sports and zombies. It's awesome!
.png?w=480)
