The Grass Isn't Greener: Why The Cleveland Browns Should Avoid A.J. Green
Right now half of Browns’ Nation is resounding with one thought: WHAT?!
A.J. Green has been tagged as a can’t-miss prospect in the 2011 draft. Compared to Calvin Johnson, he is perhaps the most well-rounded receiving prospect to enter the draft in the last decade, and scouts believe he can be successful in any offensive system.
So why should the Browns pass on him if he is still on the board at number 6?
It’s All Relative…
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Let’s take a look at the top-ten receiver selections of the last decade.
Year Player Pick - RY - TD
2000 Peter Warrick 4 - 2,991 - 18
2000 Plaxico Burress 8 - 7,845 - 55
2000 Travis Taylor 10 - 4,017 - 22
2001 David Terrell 8 - 1,602 - 9
2001 Koren Robinson 9 - 4,244 - 16 - (1 Pro Bowl)
2003 Charles Rogers 2 - 440 - 4
2003 Andre Johnson 3 - 9,164 - 50 - (5 Pro Bowls)
2004 Larry Fitzgerald 3 - 8,053 - 64 - (5 Pro Bowls)
2004 Roy Williams 7 - 5,147 - 42 - (1 Pro Bowl)
2004 Reggie Williams 9 - 2,322 - 18
2005 Braylon Edwards 5 - 5,142 - 39 - (1 Pro Bowl)
2005 Troy Williamson 7 - 1,131 - 4
2005 Mike Williams 10 - 1,290 - 4
2007 Calvin Johnson 2 - 4,191 - 33 - (1 Pro Bowl)
2007 Ted Ginn Jr. 9 - 1,827 - 6
2009 D Heyward-Bey 7 - 490 - 2
2009 Michael Crabtree 10 - 1,366 - 8
Out of that list, how many names jump out at you as elite receivers? Two? Maybe three?
Larry Fitzgerald and Andre Johnson are future hall-of-famers. Calvin Johnson could be too someday. Beyond that though, we just have some good players in Plaxico Burress, Roy Williams, and (gulp) Braylon Edwards, but no one that is really a franchise savior.
And then we get to the busts.
It’s too early to predict what will happen with Heyward-Bey and Crabtree, but out of the 15 wide receivers selected before them, 9 of them can be considered busts. That’s a success rate of 40% with guys who were all thought at one time to be “can’t-miss prospects.”
The Calvin Johnson Comparison…
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As we continue to look to history, we need look no further than the receiver A.J. Green has most often been compared to: Calvin Johnson.
The Detroit Lions and the Browns are similar organizations. Both are blue-collar towns with once successful football teams, both have been relative embarrassments over the last decade, and both seem close to turning things around, just needing those few extra pieces to be real contenders. So it is rather easy to project the impact a receiver like A.J. Green will have in Cleveland by looking at what Calvin Johnson did for Detroit.
Johnson, selected 2nd overall in the 2007 draft, has certainly lived up to his hype. Since his rookie year he has already tallied 270 receptions, 4,191 yards, and 33 touchdowns. But what has his success done for his team?
Since picking Johnson, the Lions have gone 7-9 in 2007, 0-16 in 2008, and 2-14 in 2009. Is that the kind of impact Browns fans want to see in Cleveland?
In fact, it wasn’t until 2010, when the Lions selected top defensive prospect Ndamukong Suh, that things finally began to look like they are heading in the right direction, their 6-10 record reflecting the absence of Matthew Stafford rather than their level of play.
The Browns should take a cue from the Lions and draft for the best impact-position player. Which leads us to…
The Talent Available (Part A)…
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The 2011 draft class is stacked with some top-tier defensive talent. There are four defensive linemen with top ten grades who can all have an immediate impact in the NFL. They are DT Nick Fairley, DE Da’Quan Bowers, DT Marcell Dareus, and DE Robert Quinn. One, if not more, of these players will still be available when the Browns select at number 6.
With a very thin linebacking corps, the Browns should be taking a long, hard look at OLB Von Miller too.
The Browns are in desperate need of youth and talent on the defensive side of the ball. With the recent release of their veteran linemen and linebackers, and only Rubin and Fujita projecting to be starters in the new 4-3, the Browns cannot pass up this chance to add a true pass rusher to their defensive front seven.
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The Talent Available (Part B)…
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Passing on first round prospects A.J. Green and Julio Jones should not be an issue for the Browns as some great receiving talent will still be available in round two.
The two receivers the Browns probably have their eyes on are Maryland’s Torrey Smith and Boise State’s Titus Young. Both of these guys fit the West Coast Offense mold Heckert has historically drafted for.
In his entire stint with the Eagles, Heckert only drafted one receiver over 6’1”. The reason? The WCO is about quickly getting the ball to receivers and having them run for yards after catch. It requires receivers who can get off the line quickly and possess fluid hips for cutting while maintaining acceleration.
If there is a criticism that can be leveled against Green (and that’s a very big “if”), it’s that like all tall receivers he is a long strider and a bit stiff in the hips. Torrey Smith and Titus Young, however, excel in these areas. They are both known for getting off the line quickly and making defenders miss in the open field. They also possess the top-speed to get behind cornerbacks and become deep threats.
I’m not going to pretend Green couldn’t be successful in the WCO, but if we look to Heckert’s draft history, he targets receivers in the mold of DeSean Jackson, not Randy Moss.
Free Agency/Trade…
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The biggest argument against selecting receivers in the first round is that they really are “a dime a dozen.” Better organizations have shown the ability to find starting receivers in later rounds (Pit - Mike Wallace, 3rd round; Phi – DeSean Jackson, 2nd round; Green Bay – Greg Jennings, 2nd round). But even when this doesn’t work, teams can resort to bringing in a proven commodity rather than a boom-or-bust draft pick.
Every free agency period is populated by diva receivers, and both Randy Moss and Terrell Owens will be looking for new homes in 2011.
Yet this year’s free agency pool has other promising prospects who won’t turn into locker room disruptions. San Diego’s recent franchise tagging of Vincent Jackson leaves Malcom Floyd up in the air. It’s questionable whether Green Bay will be willing to pay James Jones what he’ll likely be looking for. After failing to click in Baltimore, it’s unlikely T.J. Houshmandzadeh will be sticking around. And Arizona has some decisions to make regarding their free agents Steve Breaston and Early Doucet.
If the Browns are unable to land help in free agency, they could look into making a trade. The Jets recently acquired Santonio Holmes for a fifth-round draft pick; the Ravens, Anquan Boldin for a third- and fourth-round pick; and the Dolphins, Brandon Marshall for two second-round picks. While the rebuilding Browns would have to weigh the value of a multiple pick deal, there is no reason they too can’t improve the position without burning a first round pick.
The Current Roster…
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After watching an inept offense over the past two seasons, most Browns fans do not want to hear excuses for the current receivers. Call me an apologist if you will, but I do not believe fans can accurately judge the talent of the Browns receiving corps at this point.
Not only does it usually take a few years for receivers to adapt to the NFL anyway, both Mohammed Massaquoi and Brian Robiskie have had to deal with adjusting to five different starting quarterbacks in just two years.
They played under a regime that utilized receivers as glorified linemen, having them block downfield rather than being targeted. And when they were targeted, they were sent on deep, time-consuming routes that played to their weaknesses, not their strengths.
Yet despite all that, Massoquoi has shown flashes of potential and it really looked like the switch flipped for Robiskie towards the end of the season.
Then there is Josh Cribbs and Carlton Mitchell.
Cribbs had some brilliant third-down conversions last season. When fully healthy, he has the elusiveness in the open field to make him a very legitimate threat from the slot position.
With all the physical attributes and speed of a true number 1 receiver, it is a mystery why Mitchell was only used on one end-around play last year. But reports are that the front office is very high on this kid, and they are interested to see him in the new WCO. Expect Mitchell to figure much more prominently in next year’s scheme, perhaps even as a starter.
The bottom line is the switch to the WCO, solidarity at QB, and offensive-minded coaches will make Browns fans happy that the front office wasn’t as eager to give up on these guys as they were.
Final Thoughts…
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In conclusion, this article was not to tear down receiving prospect A.J. Green. I have every confidence that, barring injury, he will live up to his hype and make the team that selects him very happy.
I do not, however, believe that team should be the Browns. Elite receivers can push teams over that hump between failure and contention, but not when there are glaring holes at the rest of the positions.
Right now the Browns have a black hole of talent on the defensive side of the ball, and if they continue to improve their record next season, then who knows the next time they’ll have the chance to select a potential double-digit sack producer to solidify their defense.
Football games are won and lost in the trenches, and if the Browns become dazzled by flash and select A.J. Green, they could very well be consigning themselves to middling contention—not as bad as the last two years, but never good enough to win in the playoffs.
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