Tennis: 5 Predictions on the Men's Side From Now To Wimbledon
We've seen the Australian Open in Melbourne, and there are a few months between now and the second grand slam at Roland Garros, Paris, the French Open. There have been some stunning and groundbreaking stories to retell in just the last month, with the failure of Federer or Nadal to win the Australian, let alone reach the final; the startling run of Novak Djokovic; Andy Murray's continuing grand slam woes, and more.
There is a plethora of tournments, however, in the next few weeks, and the tennis season has in truth yet to get started. Already in the last week a breakthrough north American, the frightfully talented Milos Raonic, has made headline news with an upset victory over Fernando Verdasco in the final of San Jose.
Yet there are many more incipient dramatic narratives awaiting their grand unfolding - the storied return of Juan Martin Del Potro to the tour (crushing veteran Lleyton Hewitt last week), the outcome of the first round of the David Cup with its new defending champion, Serbia, Andy Murray's grand slam conundrum, and, as always, the grand narrative of Federer and Nadal, and the destiny they impel men's tennis towards.
These are the exciting stories which 2011 has yet to tell. One shouldnt expect anything too momentous in these months, however, as the real meat of the season really begins with the French Open-Wimbledon double. Yet in the next few slides I have made tentative suggestions, predictions, some crystal ball-gazing, for the time up to the end of the French Open, and the end of the first half of the year.
Novak Djokovic's Golden Run of Form Will Come to an End
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We have seen this before: a super-hot Djokovic starting the year in Melbourne with a stunning win (including a straight sets victory over the GOAT), going on to win at Indian Wells and Rome, having solid clay season, only to wilt before the imperturbable Rafael Nadal. This was 2008, one of his best seasons in his short career yet. Of course, any year with a grand slam win, as Pete Sampras used to say, is a great year.
In Melbourne Djokovic was unplayable - his defense simply out of this world. While the top players often find ways to peak at the biggest moments, however, something yet would suggest that Djokovic isn't quite the dominator or streak-artist that we have seen in Federer or Nadal. At the end it is about consistency and stamina, and not just two weeks of unbelievable tennis. For Djokovic to get to number one, and start the second half of the year just as well as he did the first, his tennis will need to be unbelievable week in week out.
For one, he has proven in the past that he is lacking somewhat in endurance. While his performance in Melbourne may go some well to slowly dispelling his reputation for lacking somewhat, at the very highest level, in fitness, one wouldn't expect him to be reaching the finals of every tournament, either. He had done terrifically three years ago, and managed to prolong that winning feeling into the clay season in 2008; the Olympian level he had played at in winning in Australia, however, became slowly muddled by the physical and mental challenges of the season, which ultimately took a toll on the quality of his tennis. No one needs to remember his straight sets upset in Wimbledon that year which effectively sealed the end of his run that year.
Moreover, he faces Federer and Nadal, who do play day-in day-out the unbelievable tennis he managed for a fortnight in Australia. Nadal, especially, is the man who was responsible for slowly dismantling the freight-train of Djokovic in 2008. His victories then over the Serb on clay, at Hamburg and finally at Paris (demolishing him there in the semifinals) proved irreparable psychological blows. Djokovic came closer in 2009, pushing Nadal to three sets at Monte Carlo, and losing in a thriller in Madrid; the pattern of history, however, with Nadal providing the immovable object to Djokovic's irresistible force, has proven too much. If Djokovic is to overcome his endurance and stamina problems, along with his long-term consistency at the very highest level, he would do no better than to break his jinx with Nadal at this time in the season. More likely than not, however, we will see a repeat of the pattern of previous years.
Rafael Nadal Will Have Another Regal Season on Clay
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Rafael Nadal has been the undisputed king of clay for the last six years. It has been a reign most securely reflected in perhaps the most remarkable unknown achievement of the Open Era, his six consecutive victories at Monte Carlo, making him the only person to have won six straight titles at any one tournament since 1968. Coming into this years' clay season, he will be the defending champion at all the major clay tournaments, having won last year what come have dubbed the 'Clay Slam', being utterly undefeated on this one surface.
To put it simply, he is a beast on the red dirt. Was last year's 'Clay Slam', however, but the epitome to his long and increasingly fascinating rule as king of clay? It was unparalleled, and indeed his best clay season yet; some will argue, however, that 2008 was his most dominant clay season, with ridiculous victories at Roland Garros, where he was barely losing games, let alone sets. It is fair to say that his campaign in 2008 at Paris redefined the modern era's notion of single stretch, one-tournament dominance.
Last year his run at Roland Garros, while he managed to win without the loss of a set, was comparably more difficult, as he faced tougher, more resilient opposition that he had in 2008. But one thing was the same - he had won at Paris having lost in Australia. 2011 seems, indeed, to be setting itself up just like it did last year and 2008, when Nadal's losses in Melbourne were raising questions on his health and long-term legacy at the top, only to be utterly dispelled by devastating runs on the clay.
While I envisage another dominant year on the red dirt, there are inevitable and ineluctable questions on his state of his knees, which seem in the last few years to have been posing greater and more visible problems in his tennis. Another flare-up of his tendinitis on the clay would be like the shaving of Samson's hair; then, Nadal would be a god made man. Assuming recovery between now and then, however, going against Nadal to dominate on the clay this year would be, as it has been for the last six years, folly - on his day Nadal has been, and will continue to be, near unbeatable on the surface. Silly questions of age shouldn't even be considered - he is only 25 this year, as long as he has been dominating tennis.
Juan Martin Del Potro Will Return in a Big Way
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Grand slam champions are a unique breed, and Juan Martin Del Potro happens to be one of such a breed with especially unique gifts. A massive serve and monostrous forehand, are just some of the weapons that stunned Federer in his surprisingly victory over the Swiss at the US Open in 2009. Since then, however, he has failed to live up to his mantle, with an injury setting him aside for much of 2010, and indeed, introducing him in 2011 as almost another newbie. His loss in Australia to Baghdatis was the loss of a Del Potro as a shadow of his former self.
Most recently, however, he has revealed something of his old greatness, in a crushing victory over Lleyton Hewitt at San Jose; this Argentine is not someone to write off too quickly, unlike his compatriot David Nalbandian, who has proven disappointing. He has a true game, a simple tactical brilliance mediated by his tremendous 6-6 frame. He serves out of a tree, and hits his groundstrokes out of a tree - little can perturb him when he is on song. While his movement is naturally thus compensated, there is little that can be down to break counter the pace and depth of his groundies when he is on his game.
Which reasons make him very dangerous this first half of 2011 - he is the great dark horse in any draw by virtue of his relatively low, and unrepresentative ranking, whom any top 5 player would be chary to treat with great caution. One factor, one suspects, is that Del Potro is the sort of player who plays his best against the best, as he did spectacularly in America two years ago. Given the state of his comeback, however, one wouldn't expect anything too amazing from him just yet - probably a deep run here and there, maybe even a Masters final at Indian Wells or Miami. The real test will come against a top player - then, wherever the draw should so grace us will we know the state of this great player.
Such a dream match-up to look for, should it ever materialise, would be a meeting between Del Potro and Nadal at the French Open. Two years ago the Argentine narrowly lost a five setter to Federer in the semis, and with his height would deal more comfortably with Nadal's heavy topspin. Moreover having won his last three matches against the Spaniard, it would prove a terrifically fascinating and tantalising match-up. Here's hoping it happens at Roland Garros in May.
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Indian Wells and Miami Will Host New Champions
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Last year the north American hard court Masters Series season began with a bang, or more correctly, two bangs. For the first time in a few years a top 5 player failed to win either of the Indian-Wells double, instead welcoming two debut winners. Indian Wells saw the the surprising run of 30 year old Croat, Ivan Ljubicic, as he posted the biggest wins of the latter stages of his career over Rafael Nadal in the semis, and Andy Roddick in the final.
It was only a week later, that the Sony Ericsson Open in Miami that saw Andy Roddick again in a final, only to win this time, however; his biggest title since 2003. Yet while it had not been the vindication of the ruling top 5, the 2010 Indian Wells-Miami stretch saw the resurrection of former top 5 players, such as Ljubicic and Roddick were.
Are we likely to see a repeat win for last year's champions? Surely, Ljubicic and Roddick, however much their wins were one-time runs reflective of the inherent unpredictability of tennis, would garner the sweet memories of their triumphs last year. A good, perhaps deep run, is likely for the defending champions.
That they are unlikely to win, however, is only to be seen from their own experience - finding a rich vein of form, a winning vein of form, is likely to happen to anyone else as much as it did to them last year. Nothing taken away from their victories, or from their incredible abilities as players, there was undoubtedly a sense of Upset about it all. But the blessings of Upset are not long in the keeping; the true order of things often reasserts itself and rectifies any infelicity. Look for a new champion - whether an upstart, a journeyman running on the best form of his career, or a top 5 victor (as seems likely).
Roger Federer Will Beat Rafael Nadal Once Before The French Open
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He has lost at Australia again in straight sets, for the second time in three years - but is he really gone? Many have written Federer off too quickly, it may be felt by the level-headed. Tennis is far too complex, and far too simple, for that. Whatever should happen for Federer's season however, we will all as collective tennis spectators be hoping desperately for a re-ignition of his celebrated rivalry with Rafael Nadal.
Between the two of them they have played 22 times, with Nadal winning fourteen times. Despite this lopsidedness the rivalry recently gained some momentum with Federer's win at their last meeting in London last year in the world tour finals. Moreover, they are tied at 2-2 from 2009-2010 in matches, with at least one match in the first half of the season before Roland Garros.
Historically, Federer and Nadal have not failed to clash before Roland Garros for the last six years; despite the changing winds heralded by their loss at the Australian Open, however, there would seem little reason they shouldnt meet again sometime between now and the French. Should Federer lose his number two ranking this chance increases ever more, with a potential meeting before the final of any tournament. Yet as the top two they have been uncannily consistent in managing to meet each other - just for that alone one would say that a meeting between the two seems imminent.
Why Federer should win however, has two bases - he has been playing well in the last few months, especially with his win over Nadal last year in London, probably better than Nadal himself, since the US Open. Nadal's health, too, should his knees prove ailing again, will be a liability against Federer. Of course, we are used to watching Nadal spoil Federer's season with the first win over him, as it has been for the last 5 years. Nonetheless there is something special about Federer' s chances against Nadal this year; however lopsided their rivalry may be they have always had close matches. Perhaps, just by some sense of destiny, this year is Federer's year against Nadal. Expect at least one victory by the Swiss over the Spaniard before Roland Garros.
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