2011 NFL Draft: Mock Draft of First 5 Buffalo Bills Picks
As the Buffalo Bills scouting department is fine-tuning their draft board in preparation for the NFL Scouting Combines in Indianapolis next week, it seemed like a good time to take a detailed look at the first five picks the Bills have coming in the NFL Draft. Those first five picks will occur in the first four rounds of the draft, thanks to two picks coming in the fourth round.
We will limit this mock to the first four Bills rounds, because from the fifth round on there are too many variables that are unanswered to do any type of predicting.
For example, will a new Collective Bargaining Agreement be reached before the draft or not? If a new CBA was reached, then did the Bills go ahead and sign any of their unrestricted free agents prior to the draft, or did they hold off with the intent of seeing who they came up with at the draft?
There are so many different schools of thought that are being bandied about by all the mocks, so this article will attempt to hone in on some specific angles and make the best choice for each angle.
Your results may vary.
Round 1: No. 3 Overall Pick
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This is what I meant by covering all the angles:
Best Athlete Available Pick: LSU corner Patrick Peterson
Based on Positional Need Pick: Alabama defensive tackle Marcell Dareus
Logical Choice Pick: Auburn defensive tackle Nick Fairley
One-Year-Wonder Stretches Pick: (tie) Clemson def. end Da'Quan Bowers and Auburn QB Cam Newton
History Repeats Itself Pick: Georgia wide receiver A. J. Green
Senior Bowl Special Insight Pick: Texas A&M linebacker Von Miller
With more than two months between now and the draft, there very well could be someone that shoots up the draft boards to the point that their name would be one of the above choices. For right now, there is a pretty solid consensus that the names listed above are the solid picks to be under consideration for the Bills for the third overall pick. My personal preference right now is Marcell Dareus.
Round 1: Bonus Slide: Trading Down To The 8-10 Overall Range
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While there has been a good deal of debate already about whether the Bills should just go ahead and draft their favorite choice at No. 3, or trade down to the No. 8-10 overall range in the first round knowing that they can still come up with an impact player and acquire additional high round draft picks.
To see the NFL Trade Value chart for what draft picks are worth, the link to the table is here: http://www.draftcountdown.com/features/Value-Chart.php.
The Bills' pick at No. 3 overall is worth 2,200 points. If they swapped down to the 10th spot, which is worth 1,300 points, they would gain an additional second round pick and an extra third round pick, plus still have something else coming as well.
With all of the needs that the team has, that is a very alluring return. In fact, they could use one of the extra second or third round picks to trade back to the 20th slot in the first round, maybe to grab one of the better tackles in the draft.
So, for the No. 8-10 range, here are some names to think about
Best Athlete Pick: Auburn QB Cam Newton
Positional Need Pick: California defensive end Cameron Jordan
Senior Bowl Special Insight Pick: Colorado tackle Nate Solder
If the Bills do trade down to the No. 8-10 range, I am hoping that Von Miller of Texas A&M is still there, but Cameron Jordan would not be a bad consolation prize at all.
Round 2: Overall Pick No. 34
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Round 2 should offer up another high quality talent. At least 45-50 names have been rotating in and out of the experts' big boards, so some of them will have to fall down to the second round, just based on mathematics. The Bills could find a true surprise waiting for them with that 34th selection.
One other factor to mention, is that Round 2 is also the start of the second day of the NFL Draft. That means that all NFL teams have had the chance to step back and re-evaluate the board after the first round.
If the Bills did not trade down in the first round, but find at least six or seven players they would gladly take in the second round still available to them, what is to prevent them from trading down then as well?
My five favorite second round picks: Illinois linebacker Martez Wilson, Notre Dame tight end Kyle Rudolph, Mississippi State tackle Derek Sherrod, Baylor nose tackle Phil Taylor and Ohio State defensive end Cameron Heyward.
Right now, if we could fast forward to the conclusion of the draft, I would be very surprised if none of these five names are available with the 34th pick. If any one of them is available, I would be delighted to pick him.
Personal choice: Ohio State defensive end Cameron Heyward. I suspect he will be as good a player as his dad—Craig "Ironhead" Heyward—was.
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Round 3: 68th Overall Pick
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Third round is where the Bills might start looking in a number of different directions. A plethora of possibilities open up here. Let's look at positional needs, first and foremost.
Defensive Line: While as many as eight or nine defensive linemen are projected to go in the first round, there still could be some quality guys that are sitting there in the third round. Don't know if he will last that long, but Oklahoma defensive end Jeremy Beal might still be there. Maybe a player Dave Wannstedt knows well, Pitt lineman Jabaal Sheard could be there. His teammate Gregory Romeus should be there too.
Linebackers: Kelvin Sheppard (LSU), Mark Herzlich (Boston College), Greg Jones (Michigan State), Casey Matthews (Oregon) and Colin McCarthy (Miami, Florida)
Tight End: Luke Stocker (Tennessee) and Lance Kendricks (Wisconsin)
Quarterback: Christian Ponder (Florida State), Andy Dalton (TCU) and Ricky Stanzi (Iowa).
Secondary: Robert Sands (West Virginia), Quinton Carter (Oklahoma), Deandre McDaniel (Clemson) and Tyler Sash (Iowa)
Offensive Line: Clint Boling (Georgia), Will Rackley (Lehigh), Chris Hairston (Clemson), Marcus Cannon (TCU), Stefen Wisniewski (Penn State) and John Moffitt (Wisconsin).
Personal Choice: Luke Stocker, Tennessee tight end.
Round 4: First Pick: Overall Pick No. 99 and Second Pick: Overall Pick No. 121
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Round 4—two picks in this round. Still looking to fill in some of the many holes.
Quarterback: Colin Kaepernick (pictured, Nevada) and Pat Devlin (Delaware)
Tight End: D.J. Williams (Arkansas)
Linebackers: Owen Marecic (Stanford), Alex Wujciak (Maryland) and Ross Homan (Ohio State)
Offensive Linemen: James Carpenter (Alabama), Marcus Gilbert (Florida) and Jarriel King (So. Carolina)
Defensive Lineman: Jerrell Powe (Mississippi), Karl Klug (Iowa), Sione Fua (Stanford) and Kendrick Ellis (Hampton)
Secondary: Chykie Brown (Texas), Chimdi Chekwa (Ohio St.), Devon Torrence (Ohio St.), Eric Hagg (Nebraska), Jaiquawn Jarrett (Temple), Jerrard Tarrant (Georgia Tech), and Deunta Williams (No. Carolina).
My personal choices for the two picks in this round: Nevada QB Colin Kaepernick and Stanford FB/LB Owen Marecic.
What Would You Think If This Was The Bills' Haul For First Four Rounds?
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So, there you have it. Four rounds, five picks and a whole lot of time invested.
We will now have to sit back and see how our selections pan out over the next two to three years. You weren't expecting results from Week 1, were you?
Our recommended picks:
1st round: Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama
2nd round: Cameron Heyward, DE, Ohio State
3rd round: Luke Stocker, TE, Tennessee
4th round a) Colin Kaepernick, QB, Nevada
4th round b) Owen Marecic, LB/FB, Stanford
That still leaves us three rounds to pick up another linebacker, a tackle and a safety. As you can see, the Bills have more holes than draft picks. So, that would result in all the more proof that trading down with the first round pick is the prudent move to make.
Will Buddy Nix do it? That is the million dollar question.
In the meantime, feel free to weigh in with your selections or thoughts.
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