UEFA Champions League Power Rankings, R16; Barcelona on Top, Real Madrid Not Yet
The UEFA Champions League returns this Tuesday with the first matches of the Round of 16. Four English teams, three Spaniard, three Italian, two German, two French, one Ukrainian and one Danish side will fight for La Orejona.
There are several candidates, but only one will take the trophy on May 28th at Wembley. Who are the strongest? Who has no chance? Let’s make a quick check of the 16 contenders.
16. FC Copenhagen
1 of 17
Let’s put it this way: no chance in hell they will win the Cup. In fact, if they win, I’ll print this article, eat it and upload the video to YouTube.
Why they could win?
Because teams like Greece in the Euro 2004 have taught us that we should never rule out anybody in a football game. And I should know that it’s not a good idea to make YouTube pledges. Football gods do have sense of humor.
Why they won’t win?
They are the weakest side in the Round of 16. Yes, they are trashing the opposition in the Danish League, but that doesn’t really mean anything. And due to the league winter stoppage, they haven’t played an official match since December 4th.
15. Schalke 04
2 of 17
Raúl González will be back in a Spaniard field when Schalke 04 visit Valencia. Does he have a shot to visit Real Madrid later?
Why they could win?
German football seems to be on the rise and the Bundesliga is recovering the respect it lost for a few years. Already out of the title fight in their local league, Schalke 04 have nothing to lose in Europe. They won a tough group in the previous stage.
Why they won’t win?
They have been very inconsistent this year. They have a subpar squad for Champions League parameters.
14. AS Roma
3 of 17
The Italian runner-ups weren’t very impressive during the group stage and right now they are out of the European competition spots in the Serie A.
Why they could win?
They had a much worse start of the season last year and were very close to win the Serie A title anyway. Italian teams are specialists in winning when nobody expect much of them.
Why they won’t win?
They lost at home against Basel in the group phase. Francesco Totti is past his prime and he doesn’t have a partner to lead Roma to a long run in this tournament.
13. Marseille
4 of 17
After losing their first two games in the group stage, Marseille bounced back to win their next four and get a spot in the last 16. Will they keep their good streak?
Why they could win?
Didier Deschamps is a proven winner. He was part of the Marseille squad that won the UCL in 1993 and as a manager he led AS Monaco to the Final in 2004, shocking Real Madrid and Chelsea on their way.
Why they won’t win?
This is a good team, but not enough to be considered a serious contender. The French League is not in the same level of La Liga or Premier League. Deschamps already had his magical moments in the Champions League.
12. Shakhtar Donetsk
5 of 17
It has become a tradition to see a former-Soviet team in these stages. This time is Shakhtar’s turn.
Why they could win?
They won the UEFA Cup just two seasons ago, becoming the first Ukrainian side to win a European competition. The home advantage is a very strong factor for former-Soviet teams.
Why they won’t win?
They are a strong team, but not talented enough. Ukrainian League is still not attractive enough for top-tier players and you need at least two or three of those to make a run for the Champions League.
11. Olympique Lyonnais
6 of 17
Real Madrid’s worst nightmare is back in the fight for the European Cup. Will we see another upset in the Santiago Bernabéu stadium?
Why they could win?
They are veterans in these stages and last year they made one more step reaching the Semifinals, knocking Real Madrid in the Round of 16. Why not doing again?
Why they won’t win?
They already lost their supremacy in the French League and the window to make something big in the Champions League seems closed. They are talent developers, so it’s normal that their squad doesn’t have big names, but the current team doesn’t seem as talented as in previous years.
10. Tottenham Hotspur
7 of 17
It took them several years, but the Spurs are finally in the European elite. They made a good impression in the first semester of the season and will try to become the black horse of this edition.
Why they could win?
They won a group that included defending champions Inter Milan. They have a very balanced squad, with a good mix of English and foreign talent. Coach Harry Redknapp is known for making his teams overachieve, like he did with Portsmouth winning the FA Cup in 2008.
Why they won’t win?
Their lack of experience in the Champions League is a huge handicap. They are talented, but still one or two steps behind the top clubs in the Premier League.
9. Valencia
8 of 17
A team that usually flies under the radar, Valencia are back in the round of 16 and willing to repeat the success of 2000 and 2001, when they reached back-to-back Finals.
Why they could win?
They are a very solid squad that has been able to stay in the Spanish elite despite the departures of David Villa and David Silva. Even when they struggle in their league, they are a very hard opponent in Europe.
Why they won’t win?
Recent struggles in Mestalla against Osasuna (3-3) and Malaga (4-3 against nine men) are a sample of their inconsistency at home. They are talented, but also have a few flaws in some lines.
8. Bayern Munich
9 of 17
The runner-ups of last UCL edition will get a chance for revenge in the Round of 16, when they face Inter Milan again.
Why they could win?
They kept the core of the team that won the Bundesliga and the DFB-Pokal last season. Their squad includes half of the German National Team plus Arjen Robben. As Gary Lineker said, football is game for 22 people that run around, play the ball, and one referee who makes a slew of mistakes, and in the end Germany always wins.
Why they won’t win?
They are 13 points behind Borussia Dortmund in their local league, which is an indication of their inconsistency this season. Last season they advanced twice for the away goals tiebreaker; the pendulum has to swung back sooner or later.
7. Real Madrid
10 of 17
Surprised to see Los Merengues so low in the rankings? Yes, they have spent tons of money in the past years, but what have they accomplished?
Why they could win?
They have Jose Mourinho. They have Cristiano Ronaldo. They have Iker Casillas. Emmanuel Adebayor, Mezut Ozil, Xabi Alonso, Pepe, Sergio Ramos and more complete a squad full of stars. They are the most successful team of all-time and their horrible streak in the Round of 16 should end now.
Why they won’t win?
They still don’t have a team. Most of their wins this season have been thanks to their key individuals, but they have yet to prove they belong to the European elite. The 0-5 against Barcelona was a big reality check for them.
6. Inter Milan
11 of 17
The defending champions had a difficult first half of the season, which led to the firing of Rafael Benítez. Can they bounce back to defend their crown?
Why they could win?
Never underestimate the champions. They still have world-class players like Wesley Sneijder, Samuel Eto’o, Júlio César, Lúcio and more. That’s a lot of star power, always important in this kind of competitions. They have done great since coach Leonardo’s arrival
Why they won’t win?
They are not the same without Jose Mourinho. No team has won back-to-back UCL tittles since AC Milan in 1989-1990. Leonardo is still too green as a manager.
5. Arsenal
12 of 17
The 2006 runner-ups are back in the hunt for their first UCL victory. Could Arsene Wenger finally add the last trophy to his resume?
Why they could win?
They have exceeded expectations in the Premier League this season and are in great shape recently. This is a squad full of young players with great potential.
Why they won’t win?
Give this squad a couple of years more and they could dominate Europe, but it’s still early. They don’t have enough experienced players to make a run for the title. And, by the way, they face Barcelona in the Round of 16.
4. AC Milan
13 of 17
Seven European Cups, four world titles (three Intercontinental Cups and one World Club Cup) and a total sum of 18 international championships (best ever, tied with Boca Juniors). The rossoneri are proven winners and they are back in the Italian elite this year.
Why they could win?
They are perennial contenders, even when they are not doing well in the Serie A. Now they are leading their local tournament and have a very strong squad. Zlatan Ibrahimovic should win the Champions League one day.
Why they won’t win?
They had a below average performance in the group stage. The Italian football doesn’t seem to be in a very good moment. They still rely on many old players.
3. Chelsea
14 of 17
I found the following bet on Bwin: Will there be a new winner of the Champions League? “No” pays 1.35, “Yes” pays 2.95. Obviously, if you pick “Yes” you are betting for Chelsea.
Why they could win?
They already had an impressive squad and now it’s even better with the signing of Fernando Torres. They are already too far from Man U in the Premier League, so they will focus on the European competition. Coach Carlo Ancelotti already won this competition twice with AC Milan, and those times he didn’t have a squad as strong as his current.
Why they won’t win?
It’s really hard to get a membership in the UCL winners club. The last time a team won La Orejona for the first time was in 1997, when Borussia Dortmund beat Juventus in the Final. History does matter.
2. Manchester United
15 of 17
The 2009 winners are a strong contender to win their fourth Champions League.
Why they could win?
They are not flashy, but they are rock solid. They were undefeated this season until a couple of weeks ago despite playing in the most competitive league and they have depth in all their lines.
Why they won’t win?
Other than Wayne Rooney, they don’t seem to have those players capable of putting the team on their shoulders in a key match, and so far Rooney hasn’t done much to prove himself in knockout matches either.
1. Barcelona
16 of 17
Los Culés are the obvious candidate. Unless a major upset happens, they should take the Cup back home.
Why they could win?
They are the best team of the world, and it’s not even close. They have the three best players of 2010 in their squad (ok, let’s make it three of the best five for those who think Wesley Sneijder deserved to be in the list) and have crushed almost all their rivals this season.
Why they wouldn’t win?
Because they were also the best team last year and Jose Mourinho’s Inter Milan found a way to beat them. It could happen again. Everything can happen in a knockout stage, just ask Athletic, that were close to beat them in the Copa del Rey Quarterfinals.
Prediction: Barcelona 3-2 Man U
17 of 17
I think we will see a repeat of the 2009 Final, but a lot can happen from now until May 28th.
After all, those two could meet each other in the Quarterfinals, or not even making it to that phase.
Follow me on Twitter: @luisrha
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