College Football: Top Teams and Conferences

In week 4 of college football, conference play started in earnest, culminating in a classic LSU-Auburn battle. It's still early in the season, but the SEC and Big-12 have firmly established themselves as the top two conferences in the country.

My Top 25 after Week 4:

1. USC - Still #1, even though OSU didn't look good (again). When's the last time a conference had the #1 team in the country, and no other ranked team?

2. Georgia - Nice road win over ASU. The Dawgs seem to have found a big-play receiver to compliment Knowshon Moreno.  This could help them win against a good Alabama pass defense and help answer Julio Jones' catches.

3. Oklahoma - Still winning convincingly. But games vs. TCU and Texas in the next 3 weeks should be much more difficult.

4. Florida - Destroyed Tennessee, with good red-zone D and special teams standing out.

5. LSU - As usual, a great game against Auburn. With a good run game and a solid defense, the Tigers can afford to gamble in key situations. LSU beat Miss. St. 45-0 last year, but the Bulldogs gave Auburn all they could handle before losing a 3-2 baseball game.  Can LSU avoid thinking about the game in the Swamp? Probably, because there's a bye week in-between the games.

6. Mizzou - Offense has not been held under 42 pts this season. The Tigers will probably easily defeat Nebraska, but Oklahoma State could be a trap game.

7. Alabama - Have kept rising in the polls as they've shown their play-making abilities. A huge game @ Georgia is next. (See #2 Georgia, above).

8. Texas - Colt McCoy had game-highs in passing and rushing last week in the Horns' annual beat-down of Rice. Next up: a make-up of the postponed game vs. Arkansas, which would've been much better if Darren McFadden and Felix Jones were still in the college. However, the game after that (@ Colorado), which precedes two massive games against OU and Mizzou, could be trouble.

9. Wisconsin - The Badgers, the only top-10 team in the Big 10, get the edge over PSU because Wisconsin has beaten a top-25 team on the road.  Michigan, ranked 88th-109th in every offensive category, shouldn't be able to outscore P.J. Hill and company. But Penn State (in Madison on 10/11) might.

10. BYU - Why so high? They barely beat Washington, and the rest of their opponents have been even worse than UW. The Cougars have great offense, but their defense will allow them to possibly run the table. If TCU does badly against OU, Utah, whose Michigan win doesn't look very impressive, will be only obstacle between BYU and an undefeated season. Will Boise State, with a win at Autzen, be able to leap-frog them if the Broncos also go undefeated? It probably won't come to that (Fresno could beat Boise, even on the road), but it's college football, it's never too early to speculate.

11. Penn State - They're ranked under Wisconsin (for now) because Illinois will be the first ranked team they've played this year. Having said that, I think PSU has a shot at beating UW, even in Madison, if they can jump on top early with big plays and keep P.J. Hill from running amok.

12. Texas Tech - Being in the Big-12 South with OU and UT will probably spell the end of Texas Tech's BCS hopes (and top-15 ranking, depending on the scores).

13. Auburn - By far the best one-loss team in the country, they will move up well into the top 10 if they win and teams above them keep losing. But although they don't play Florida, being in the same division with both 'Bama and LSU (who already has one game plus a tie-breaker on them) will likely keep them Auburn out of the SEC championship game, even if they do beat Georgia and Vandy.

14. Wake Forest - The Demon Deacons defeated former tormentor FSU for the 2nd-straight game, and will face Clemson on 10/9 in a game that will probably decide the Atlantic division's representative in the ACC Championship game.

15. South Florida - The Big East's only ranked team is also the only one with a win over a ranked opponent. Will a revitalized West Virigina crush their BCS dreams in the last game of the season? Would an undefeated USF team be snubbed in favor of a one or two-loss SEC team for a major bowl? The way the Big East schedule has played out the last few seasons, these are probably only theoretical questions.

16.  Boise State - Winning at Autzen is difficult, even when Oregon is decimated by injuries.  Except a steamroll of the WAC, setting up a critical end-of-year game with Fresno.

17. Kansas - May not be ranked for long. The Jayhawks are a good team, but they still have to play all the Big-12 powers (OU, Texas, Texas Tech, Mizzou). Their only loss so far was to a ranked opponent on the road, so a successful completion of the Big-12 schedule (2-2 vs the Big 4?) could get them a good bowl anyway.

18. Utah - Undefeated, but with games still to come against TCU and BYU, Utah is a difficlut team to judge. The win over UNLV looks a bit better after the ASU upset in week three.

19. East Carolina - Arrrrr! A scurvy fumble in OT sends yer BCS title hopes to Davy Jones' locker! And all of a sudden, the wins vs. WVU and VTech don't look as impressive as they used to. But East Carolina doesn't play another ranked opponent, and should win their conference easily.

20. Vanderbilt - Yet another ranked SEC team. Auburn will probably knock them lower win a road win on Saturday.

21. Clemson - Now that everyone's being clobbered by Alabama, the shame of the opening game is (somewhat) mitigated. Clemson still has a shot at the ACC Championship (see #14 Wake, above) if they can win their next two games.

22. Illinois - Illinois will probably not leave Happy Valley happy - or ranked.

23. Fresno State - The 55-54, double-OT win over Toledo was much closer than it should have been, but Fresno should be able to win the rest of its games going into a potentially BCS-busting game at Boise on 11/28.

24. Colorado - Nice win over West Virigina. But after visiting FSU this week, the Buffs play Texas, Kansas, and Mizzou in October.

25. Ohio State - OSU clings to the last spot in the Top-25 after beating Troy, their second lackluster win in the last three games. The Buckeyes have plenty of opportunities to move up, especially with Terelle Prior looking more and more confortable, but for now, OSU can't even make a statement against the other Trojans.

Top 3 Conferences after Week 4:

1. SEC

The SEC is the best conference in the country after four weeks, with three out of the top five teams in the country.  Unless a lower-tier team takes out one of the highly-ranked teams (ie. Tennessee over Auburn), the conference should remain #1 for quite a while, if not the rest of the regular season.

Projected Conference Standings:

East:

1. Georgia

2. Florida

3. Vandy

4. Tennessee

5. Kentucky

6. South Carolina

West:

1. LSU

2. Auburn

3. Alabama

4. Ole Miss

5. Miss. St.

6. Arkansas

SEC game of the week (Week 5): Alabama @ Georgia

Nick Saban won't get his first big conference win yet. Knowshon Moreno will help keep the pressure off of Matthew Stafford and the ball out of the hands of both the Alabama offense and the opportunistic defensive backs.

@ Georgia 27, Alabama 19

2. Big-12

With OU, Texas, Missouri, and Texas Tech in the top-15, the Big-12 is definitely a power conference. Kansas is also a top-25 team, and Colorado is having a solid season so far.  Nebraska might also give Virginia Tech trouble Saturday.

Projected Conference Standings:

North

1. Missouri

2. Colorado (why CU and not Kansas? Because although Colorado plays at Kansas, the Buffs don't have to play Oklahoma, while Kansas does. Kansas also has to play Texas Tech, while Colorado plays Texas A&M)

3. Kansas

4. Nebraska

5. Kansas State

6. Iowa State

South

1. Oklahoma

2. Texas  (Texas Tech has looked good so far, and doesn't have to play Missouri. Tech also hosts Texas. But the Red Raider D may lose the team a few games - including the Texas game - as it has in the past.)

3. Texas Tech

4. Oklahoma State

5. Baylor

6. Texas A&M

Big-12 conference game of the week (Week 5): TCU @ Oklahoma

OU has a chance to deal a set-back to TCU, which is having one their best post- LaDainian Tomlinson years. TCU has a good running game, and has not one but two dual-threat QB's.  But OU's overall talent, depth, and superiority in the passing game will lead to a rout in Norman.

@OU 45, TCU 16

3. Big 10 

Why is the Big 10 third, despite the (temporary) demise of OSU? Because it has more teams in the top-25 than any conference other than the SEC and Big-12. Penn State looks to be on the upswing, while Wisconsin is still highly ranked after surviving Fresno State.

Projected Conference Standings:

1. Wisconsin (They don't have to go on the road against a ranked team)

2. OSU (With Pryor at QB, they will have a decent offense to go along with the D until Beanie Wells comes back)

3. Penn State (They're explosive on offense but might have trouble playing at both OSU and Wisconsin)

4. Illinois

5. Michigan State (They don't play Illinois)

6. Purdue

7. Michigan

8. Minnesota (No Penn State)

9. Indiana (No OSU)

10. Northwestern (No Wisconsin, running game improved?)

11. Iowa

Big 10 game of the week (Week 5): Illinois @ Penn State

Juice Williams will get his stats, but after edging Louisiana- Lafayette, can the Illini beat the White Out? Not when the Illinois defense faces an offense averaging over 50 points per game. Penn State will probably give up fewer points than Missouri did, and the Illini will struggle to keep Penn State from running up and down the field.

Penn State 45, Illinois 30

Other Conferences:

4. Mountain West

BYU looks very strong. Utah and TCU add to conference depth.

5. ACC

NC State's upset of East Carolina was a good follow-up to Maryland's win over Cal in week 3.  But the conference still doesn't have a top-15 team.

6. Pac-10

USC is incredible (again), but with Cal, UCLA, ASU, and Oregon all slumping and/or battling significant injuries at the same time, it's no fun for anyone else.

7. WAC

Fresno State is a tough opponent in any game, while Boise State won at Oregon. The rest of the conference is very bad.

8. Big East

If you don't have something nice to say . . . pretend to take solace in the fact that South Florida's win over FIU wasn't as close as the score looked.