How Would Stephen Strasburg's Rookie Season Have Looked without the Injury?

When Stephen Strasburg first took the mound against the Pirates last summer, most Nationals fans were equal parts energized and terrified.

They were energized because they hoped that the long Nationals nightmare would end with his first pitch, and terrified that a poor performance would prolong it.

But a combination of rockets and ricochet curveballs that night made believers out of all of us. And as the summer wore on, the kid just seemed to get better each time out, either blowing away the competition with once-in-a-lifetime talent or keeping them at bay with guile and cunning when he couldn’t summon the A-game out of his golden arm.

But just 12 games later, the dream ended with a snap and a strain in his pitching elbow. Stephen Strasburg, meet Tommy John.

It might have been less painful if he had never succeeded. But to give so much hope so quickly and then snatch it away so suddenly left the Nationals Nation in disarray.

The 12 games provided insight into what Strasburg could become, but it would be another year, perhaps 18 months, before he could show that he was the same pitcher. And when the time came to prove it, would he be able to?

Would that fastball continue to hit triple digits and could he still make his off-speed stuff zig, then zag, then zig again?

As the savior continues to heal, I got to thinking about another remarkable pitcher who dominated in his first season as a major leaguer before Tommy John surgery sidelined him as well. He has returned as dominant as ever, just the way Strasburg intends to.

His name is Josh Johnson of the Florida Marlins.

He joined the Marlins as a 22-year-old in 2006 and went 12-7, 3.10, 7.8/3.9/7.6. He struggled the next season, however, going 0-3, 7.47 before being sidelined with Tommy John surgery in August of 2007.

He returned late in 2008 and went 7-1, 3.61, cutting down his walks and increasing his strikeouts.

Over the past two seasons, Johnson has excelled, averaging 13 wins and a 2.80 ERA. His slash line improved to 7.8/2.4/8.6. And there is no question that the surgery healed well. He’s averaged 200 innings over the past two seasons.

Johnson was a year older than Strasburg in his rookie campaign and was 26 last season, his fifth full year in the majors.

I thought it would be interesting to expand Strasburg’s truncated 2010 season and see what it would have looked like if he had pitched 200 innings, and then compare those numbers with what Josh Johnson did in 2010, his second full season after surgery:

Record

Strasburg: 14-9

Johnson: 11-6

ERA

Strasburg: 2.91

Johnson: 2.30

Hits

Strasburg: 159

Johnson: 155

Home Runs

Strasburg: 14

Johnson: 8

Walks

Strasburg: 48

Johnson:  48

Strikeouts

Strasburg: 261

Johnson: 186

Whip (Runners per Inning)

Strasburg: 1.074

Johnson: 1.107

Hits/Walks/Strikeouts per Nine Innings

Strasburg: 7.4/2.3/12.2

Johnson: 7.6/2.4/9.1

Strikeouts to Walks Ratio

Strasburg: 5.4:1

Johnson: 3.8:1

Batting Average/On-Base/Slugging Percentage Against

Strasburg: .221/.268/.328

Johnson: .229/.282/.325

Extra-Base Hits

Strasburg: 28 doubles, three triples, 14 homers

Johnson: 32 doubles, 6 triples, 7 home runs

Strikeout Percentage

Strasburg: 33.6

Johnson: 25.0

Walk Percentage

Strasburg: 6.2

Johnson: 6.4

Extra-Base Hit Percentage

Strasburg: 5.8

Johnson: 6.1

Pitches Thrown for Strikes

Strasburg: 66 percent

Johnson: 65 percent

There are a few differences between Strasburg’s first year and Johnson’s sixth. Johnson’s ERA was a little better but Strasburg’s walk and strikeout numbers, and their percentages, were beyond excellent and beyond Johnson’s abilities.

If a rookie with no experience can out-pitch—or at least equal—a six-year veteran, then baseball in Washington should be very exciting indeed when Strasburg nears the end of his contract in Washington.

If Strasburg continues to follow the Josh Johnson timetable, he’ll be on the mound sometime late summer, pitching in 10 or 12 games before the end of the season. Johnson’s stats were excellent and a marked improvement on his last healthy season. Hopefully, Strasburg's will be too.

The surgery worked and all the Marlins lost was time.

The dismay caused by the loss of Strasburg’s rookie season shouldn’t diminish his amazing accomplishments, and the fact that 10 pitchers at last season’s All-Star game underwent the same procedure and—obviously because they were All-Stars—returned to elite status indicates that it is only a matter of time before Strasburg joins them.

Of course, return from Tommy John surgery is never a guarantee. A few pitchers have never regained their stuff and a handful of others, Al Reyes, and Jason Isringhausen included, have had to endure a second Tommy John surgery.

The end of 2011 will be a proving ground for Strasburg just like 2010 was for Jordan Zimmermann, brother starter and fellow alum of the Tommy John club. Consider the upcoming season a test track for 2012, when management guns the team engine in an effort to work out the kinks and find those things that need to be tweaked.

But, oh man, 2012 will be so worth the hassles and the embarrassment of the last half-decade. Finally, it will be the Nationals’ turn in the spotlight. And right there, in the center of the circle, will be Stephen Strasburg and his oh-gee-whiz persona.

And his 100 mph fastball.