Roger Federer's New Career Stage: A Different Sort Of Waiting Game

It has only been a few weeks since Roger Federer was dumped (crashed?) out of the Australian Open, and naturally people have been speculating about its significance.

Is the Federer era finally over? Has its stuttering finally come to a decisive climax? Well in short, these are cyclical questions, that resolve little.

Moreover, they neglect the real issues at hand - how do we interpret meaningfull losses like his straight sets defeat to Djokovic? Just what is happening with Roger Federer?

I guess, as with all things, here is another instance of the two-faced monster. Its all in the perspective, and there is some reason to think that Federer's own assessment of the matter - his blunt, slightly disgruntled "We'll talk again in six months" probably holds the most weight.

Lets face it, the discussion on Federer's decline has been around his his semifinal loss at Melbourne three years ago; only that back then there were some legitimate reasons for his loss, with his battling mononucleosis, and looking visibly fatigued the whole match.

But this time he had played, by his own admission, quite well - so is decline really a legitimately pursuable narrative?

There used to be a time when it could said, quite confidently, that Federer at his best was unbeatable. It is of course, no longer true, and this is probably what one should take out of his latest loss.

His defeats to Nadal in 2008 could be attributable to some mono-hangover, that at the Australian in 2009 to his back, and his loss to Berdych at Wimbledon last year to some rankling injury.

But against Djokovic he came in off one of the best runs he has had in recent years; yet against a player on song he failed even to win a set. Perhaps it was something about his tactics - his reluctance, or inability, to implement his aggressive game plan, ultimately proved costly.

At the end, Djokovic's offensive defense, by which he slowly wore down the Federer assault, gliding along the baseline just long enough for the moment to strike, posed too insurmountable a hurdle.

Whether one sees this as decline, or simply a momentary lapse - Federer has undeniably entered a new stage in his career.

The years to 2003 had been the story of his rise to dominance, and the next 4 years of 2004-7 the golden era, the most glorious years, as one commentator had pronounced, of the Open Era.

2008-10 may be said to have been years of transition, with some lingering, persistent evidence of his former, domineering, brilliance - with such traditionally dominant tournaments at the US Open in 2008, or the Australian Open in 2010, for instance.

But Federer overall hasn't visibly, or drastically, altered his game, although there certainly have been some adjustments - the incorporation of the drop shot, and his most recent bolstering of his backhand side.

These two elements were in evidence against Djokovic, with a stretch of drop winners in the 2nd set, and some damaging down the line backhands throughout the match. Yet in the end the old habits ruled true at the end, in the face of an unexpectedly persistent Djokovic. 

Maybe as he stood at the brink of defeat, Federer realised, biting his lips, that quality in his opponent which he most ought to have had on his side - confidence and persistence, that is the winning recipe.

Even just two years ago, his break back for 4 all, after a stirring rally, would have elicited some kind of resurgence. It would have ignited his deep set reserve of confidence and belief; panic inflaming passion (see his comeback against Haas at the French in 2009, for example).

But instead the Federer of 4 all that night proved markedly timid, almost uncharacteristic. Was he already on 'power-save' mode, as one writer has put it?

Had he really at that point, down 2 sets to one, resigned himself to defeat? It is not impossible - missed first serves, and dismally conducted rallies - in contrast to Djokovic's mental realignment, and refocussed aggression - saw the break again, and this time for good. The Serb would go on to serve out the match, 7-6 7-5 6-4.

The serve, possibly, was the most notable criterion of difference between Federer and Djokovic that night, and arguably the biggest indicator of Federer's altered mindset towards emergency.

There was none of that urgency, characteristic calmness in his service delivery in the third. Three years ago he had held serve resolutely in the third set, to at least force a breaker - but this time he was broken twice, each time without being on panic mode.

It was a remarkable, exhibition-like looseness that saw him gift service breaks; Djokovic, no doubt, much improved, had a great deal to do with it. But the old Federer would have dealt better with such adversity.

What I'm hinting at is a shifting in Federer's perspective and emphasis. His mantle of the world number one had, especially in 2007 (at Wimbledon or the US Open), provided the psychological fortitude necessary for some timely serves; but he had no such grand slam aura to rely on this time at Australia.

This deals in the intangible, yet palpable aspects to a tennis match not unlike the dark matter in our universe - unseen but neccesary components of victory.

It was this lack of this fortitude, reluctance, or hesitation, to believe in his innate superiority over Djokovic, that lost him the match.

Federer is undoubtedly tennis' primus inter pares; first among equals. He used to be the first of all, but that is no longer a tenable reality. The truth is brutal, but fascinating - he is no longer clearly the best.

Federer has been at this stage for quite a while now, of course, almost as long as the decline narrative has been going stale. But this recent loss marked a new, perhaps more dramatic stage in his new role.

His reluctance to engage in heroic comebacks would reveal, perhaps, a certain weariness - maybe his reserves of confidence, too, are going into reserve mode. We may have seen the start of a more selective Federer, waiting for genuine opportunities for glory.

He is beyond humiliation or shock; it is merely a matter of patience, and with a game like his, the right day will surely come again.