Super Bowl XLV: Handicapping The Green Bay Packers And Pittsburgh Steelers

The Super Bowl is not just the biggest annual football game in the world. It's the biggest sporting event in the world.

That's a bold claim, but in terms of viewers, betting interest and many other measures it is true. It's also very different than any other football game that is played.

Sure, every team that plays in the game has played 18 or 19 other games to get there. None of those games, though, come close to this one in terms of pressure, intensity, or scrutiny.

Players have two weeks to sit in a fish bowl and wait for kickoff, and all they are thinking about for every second of that time is playing the game.

Fans and bettors have had more time than they need to think about this game, too, and they are overwhelmed by coverage. Some is good and useful, but most really isn't.

The Super Bowl can be handicapped successfully, which is a good thing because everyone is going to try. In order to be successful, though, you either need to be very lucky or you need to keep some things in mind about this game. Luck alone won't lead to long-term success, but if you combine that with these tips for Super Bowl handicapping then long-term success could be yours.

1. These are not normal NFL lines: Betting volume is dramatically higher for the NFL than any other league, and it is dramatically higher for the Super Bowl than for any other game. Nearly $100 million is bet on the game in Las Vegas alone. Many, many people will bet on this game that won't bet on another game all year. Needless to say, those people aren't particularly sophisticated bettors.

Luckily, those bettors are typically pretty consistent and predictable in their action. In most cases they take the 'over' and the favorite. That typically means two things: that the lines for the favorite and the 'over' will likely be shaded higher than normal when they open in anticipation of that action, and that the Super Bowl odds could move even higher in response to the heavy public action.

You need to be very aware of the public action and the impact it has. That doesn't mean you should automatically go against the public and take the 'under' and the underdog. In fact, you could have made a solid profit over the last 28 years by parlaying the favorite and the 'over' each year.

This year's game has a chance to really mess with our minds when it comes to public perception. Both teams have respected quarterbacks that people like and think can score. The thing is, though, that both of these teams are known at least as much, and probably primarily in both cases, for having potent defenses. There are many visible stars on defense for both teams, and that could lead the public to be drawn to the 'under' more than usual.

You also have a very popular, very public team that has two Super Bowl wins in the last five years as the underdog, so the outcome won't seem as clear-cut to the casual bettor as it does in many years. Public action will be very interesting, and perhaps very confusing, to watch this year.

2. Be on the lookout for strange line movement: Because there is so much betting volume, and most of it typically flows fairly predictably, it takes a very heavy investment to move the line in a way other than what we would typically expect.

In a normal game one or two smart bettors could swing the line by making their bets. In order to do so in the Super Bowl, though, you would typically need several smart bettors throwing a pile of money in the same direction at the same time. That would indicate that there is something worth taking note of.

That's especially relevant in a game like this year's, with the line hovering around the key number of three. Books hate to move lines around that number because of the chance of a costly middle, so if the line were to move past that number more than once then it would be a clear sign that some influential people are exercising a very strong opinion.

3. Don't forget the Super Bowl props There are a huge number of prop bets available for this game: a ridiculous number, really. A lot of them are total sucker bets. Some, though, actually offer a surprising amount of value.

If you are struggling to find a side or a total that makes you happy for the game, then you should look to the props to see if there is one that suits your interests better.

Ultimately, props are no different than any other bet. You can apply logic to your pick, you have something to cheer for during the game, and it's a whole lot more fun to win than to lose.