Fantasy Baseball 2011: Could Brett Anderson Be This Year's Breakout Pitcher?
Every year in fantasy baseball, a young arm launches himself into the top tier of pitching. Edinson Volquez in 2008, Ubaldo Jiminez in 2009 and Mat Latos last season. While we realize how good a pitcher's potential is, we're rarely able to predict when they'll explode onto the scene.
There are players like Clayton Kershaw, Matt Cain and Jered Weaver, who have yet to put it all together to become a Top 10 fantasy option. However, there are players with less publicity and less build-up that tend to throw monster seasons.
While we look at young pitchers and their command of the strike zone, it's equally important to focus on the offensive run support and the bullpen's ability to close out games.
Mat Latos was last year's unsung hero for fantasy owners looking to the middle rounds of their draft to take a leap of faith for a young gunslinger. Even though Brett Favre is not eligible to be drafted this year, there are a few starting pitchers who could make or break a fantasy team's chances.
Besides the obvious choices such as Madison Bumgarner and Jeremy Hellickson, here are the best five options for breakout pitcher of the year.
No. 5: Gio Gonzalez
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Why has nobody noticed the numbers that Gonzalez put up last year?
He was a fantasy beast, flaunting a 15-9 record with 171 KOs and a 3.23 ERA. Gonzalez was one of the most dominant pitchers in the second half of the season, going 8-3 with a 2.59ERA. While these numbers are highly impressive, Gonzalez continues to be undervalued heading into many fantasy drafts this year.
After being traded from the Chicago White Sox to the Oakland Athletics in 2008, Gonzalez has been a minor league standout while struggling in the big leagues. In 2009, he posted a gaudy 5.75 ERA in 17 starts. Giving up 14 home runs in only 98.2 innings, he looked like a bust of talent.
However, in 2010, Gonzalez channeled his inner Justin Verlander, lowering his home run rate and striking out batters. His 15 home runs allowed ranked third in all of the MLB among starters with over 150 innings pitched. That is one of the most impressive, yet surprising statistics for a strikeout pitcher.
So what should you expect from Gonzalez this year?
A better, more productive and more experienced top of the rotation guy. With the A's adding Grant Balfour and Brian Fuentes to their bullpen, as well as offensive upgrades in Josh Willingham, Hideki Matsui and David DeJesus, Gonzalez will have even more support from both ends of the game.
No. 4: Jordan Zimmerman
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Stephen Strasburg who?
Last year we witnessed one of the most dominant rookie seasons ever when Washington Nationals pitcher Stephen Strasburg blew past every batter he faced. After throwing out his arm from all of those 102 MPH pitches, Strasburg was in need of Tommy John Surgery and forced the Nats to turn to their second best franchise pitcher for help. Jordan Zimmerman.
With all of the hoopla revolving around Strasburg, and even the signing of teenage phenom Bryce Harper, a lot of people have forgotten about how good Zimmerman was and has the potential to be.
In 2009, Zimmerman jolted on the scene with 92 KO's in 91 INN. Zimmerman was knighted the savior of the Nationals consistently horrid pitching, until he himself needed Tommy John surgery to repair his young arm. However, he returned last year in sort of a under-the-radar sneak attack, pitching 31 innings with no arm issues.
This year, Zimmerman will be given the chance to throw and throw frequently. He has a huge strikeout ability, great control for a hard throwing 24-year-old and has Ryan Zimmerman, Jayson Werth, Adam LaRoche and Rick Ankiel to help secure runs.
If, and only if, Zimmerman can stay healthy and pitch at least 150 innings, there is no reason why he can't reach 160 KOs and 10 wins.
No. 3: Jhoulys Chacin
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Yet another young strikeout pitcher who is being overlooked coming into this year.
Chacin was huge for the Colorado Rockies last year, helping spell injured pitchers left and right. Being a strikeout pitcher in the minors since 2005, the now 23-year-old, had no problem carrying over that success to the major leagues.
Last year Chacin posted a mediocre 9-11 record, but struck out 138 batters with a 3.28 ERA. All of this in only 137 innings. One of the biggest factors to look at is the fact that he only walked 61 batters last year, which is fairly low for a first-year rookie who aims to blow hitters away.
The only negative aspect for Chacin is that fact that he pitches in Colorado, something that has plagued the stat lines for Rockies pitchers for years. However, he still managed to post a sub-4.00 ERA at home in 2010.
Look for the Rockies to baby his arm, sort of a Clayton Kershaw approach, but he should still be able to reach 180 innings. With a solid offense, fairly decent bullpen and a team that can now be considered consistent contenders, Chacin could be in line for 13 to 15 wins and 180 KO.
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No. 2: John Danks
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No Dank you.
This has been the attitude of a lot of fantasy owners for the last few years. Danks is not a new name, nor is he someone you should reach for when drafting. However, he has the potential to be a Top 20 fantasy pitcher and should never be overlooked.
Over the last three years, the soon to be 26-year-old has gone 40-31 with a 3.60 ERA. The only problem with Danks is Danks himself. He can be one of the most productive fantasy starters one month, then one of the shakiest the next. His inconsistency to be a Top 20 pitcher can sometimes be annoying. Being a pitcher who doesn't give up a lot of hits, solid control and eats innings, this could be the year that he puts it all together.
Danks has the potential to be a K/IP type of pitcher, with the talent to post a sub-3.50 ERA in the AL. Adding Adam Dunn to the offense and Jesse Crain to the bullpen couldn't hurt.
The bottom line is don't let Danks slip past you on draft day. He has the potential to be a 18W/200IP/200 K No. 2 SP, but could also beat himself up month-to-month and sit back in his recliner.
Worst comes to worst, you'll still have the John Danks of usual.
No. 1: Brett Anderson
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To quote the great Notorious B.I.G, "If you don't know, now you know."
How good is Brett Anderson? He's Top 15 good.
Put it this way. Anderson is only 23-years-old and has already recorded 175 innings in one season, and a 2.80 ERA in another. The only problem with "The Hit Man" is his health, but he's deemed healthy and should pitch healthy.
In 2010, Anderson went 7-6 with a 2.80 ERA, with almost a 3:1 K/BB ratio. The scary thing is that he performed like a K/IP pitcher in his two years in the minors. If Anderson can harness that strikeout ability, along side with the Athletics Top five bullpen, he could launch himself into the upper tier of the best fantasy pitchers around.
The bad news is that Anderson is highly undervalued in fantasy leagues this year, being drafted behind unproven young guns like Daniel Hudson, Brandon Morrow and even Colby Lewis, who might have had the most inflated statistical season in the past few years.
The good news is that a lot of owners will bypass Anderson, and he is definitely someone to reach for come draft day.
Let's just hope he doesn't turn into the next Rich Harden.
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